Free Press sports writer Tony Garcia shares three quick thoughts and a prediction for No. 20 Michigan basketball‘s road game at No. 12 Purdue on Friday (8 p.m., Fox) in West Lafayette, Indiana.
Meeting the standard
Although the Wolverines (14-4, 6-1 Big Ten) are ahead of Purdue (15-5, 7-2) in the conference standings after the Boilermakers were upset by Ohio State on Tuesday, the coaching staff is paying its respect to the reigning conference champion, which made it all the way to the national title game a season ago.
“They’ve been the standard in the league for the last several years, so we have the utmost respect for their program,” U-M assistant coach Mike Boynton Jr. said Thursday. “We know we’re gonna be going into a really hostile environment, against a really well-coached team. Coming off a loss, they’ll be really highly motivated, obviously trying to stay at the top of the league.
“We’re gonna have to play some really good basketball to give ourselves a chance.”
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Offensively, Purdue is No. 11 in efficiency (122.3), No. 18 on 3-point shooting percentage (38.4%), No. 21 in effective field goals (56.3) and No. 57 on 2-point perfentage(55.4%). Defensively, the Boilermakers are No. 26 in efficiency (96.5) and No. 31 in limiting opponents’ 3-pointers (31.1%).
It’s all because of the system they run, according to U-M head coach Dusty May.
“I think coach (Matt) Painter is one of the best coaches (in the country) in all facets,” May said Monday. “They’ve climbed the mountain, and now they’re managing to stay at the top of the mountain pretty consistently. I can’t say enough good things.”
Head of the snake
Contrary to some narratives, Purdue wasn’t only good because of two-time Wooden Award winner Zach Edey, now in the NBA. Point guard Braden Smith still continues to run the Boilermakers’ offense at a high level, averaging an efficient 15 points per game and a Big Ten-leading 8.9 assists per night.
“He’s a surgeon,” May said. “His ability to make his teammates better, to make the right play … he never looks tired. He never gets sped up. You rarely see him make even a solid decision; he makes good decisions repeatedly.
“He knows what he’s looking at. His ability to think the game and manipulate your defense. I can go on and on.”
Purdue runs a lot of pick-and-roll action with Smith and Trey Kaufmann-Renn, a 6-foot-8 forward who has stepped up for Painter’s squad. He leads the team with 18.3 points and 6.5 rebounds per game and U-M is going to have to figure out the best way to defend the action — hard hedges, drop coverage, fighting through, switching no matter what or what’s most likely, some combination of them all.
“We’re gonna play a ton of pick-and-rolls with Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn on Friday, so that’ll put us in a different situation in terms of how much to help,” Boynton said. “They have a lot of really good shooters, so you might have to figure out how to play those pick-and-rolls two-on-two as much as you can, so you also don’t allow Braden Smith to find Fletcher Loyer or five or six 3s, Myles Coving for five or six 3s. Now you’re dealing with too many things at once.
“So, if we can figure out a way to deal with the pick-and-rolls in this particular game two-on-two, that’ll give us the best chance to win.”
Vlad Goldin stretching the floor
If U-M is going to pull off the victory, it’s likely going to need to get production on 3-pointers.
Ohio State (11-for-23) got 24 more points on 3s than Purdue (3-for-9) Tuesday and the good news for U-M is that it has an additional 3-point shooter with which to threaten the Boilermakers. Vladislav Goldin, U-M’s 7-foot-1, 250-pound center who didn’t attempt a shot from behind the arc in the first three seasons of his career has now taken at least two tries in five of the past six games.
“As a coach who spends a lot of time focusing on defense, I think about if I had to prepare for us, all the things that I would imagine I have to take into account,” Boynton said. “A month ago, Vlad making 3s wouldn’t have been one of those things.”
That includes Sunday’s game against Northwestern, when he made a career-high three of six attempts. Thatsuccess rate actually dropped his season-long percentage from 60% to 56.3% (9-for-16). It’s just another option for U-M, which Boynton said has to get back to “shooting the way we were” earlier in the season.
Michigan vs Purdue prediction
Tre Donaldson may not be too concerned about the Mackey Arena environment, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a real thing. The Wolverines will be well-rested heading into their biggest game of the season to date and have all the tools necessary to pull off the victory. Will they? Purdue hasn’t lost consecutive home games since February 2020, just weeks before the coronavirus pandemic shut down the season. U-M will come close, but ultimately fall just short. The pick: Purdue 79, U-M 76.
Tony Garcia is the Michigan Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
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As two powerhouse teams prepare to face off in a highly anticipated top-20 matchup, the keys to victory will be crucial for both sides. Here are three key factors that could determine the outcome of the game:
1. Strong defense: In a matchup between two top-ranked teams, defense will be key. Both teams will need to bring their A-game on the defensive end to limit their opponent’s scoring opportunities. This means tight man-to-man defense, effective communication, and the ability to force turnovers. Whichever team can lock down defensively and disrupt their opponent’s offense will have a significant advantage.
2. Efficient offense: While defense is important, neither team can afford to neglect their offense. Both teams will need to execute their offensive game plan effectively, move the ball well, and capitalize on scoring opportunities. This includes hitting shots from beyond the arc, attacking the basket, and making smart decisions with the ball. Whichever team can consistently score and put pressure on the opposing defense will have a good chance of coming out on top.
3. Mental toughness: In a high-stakes top-20 matchup, mental toughness will be crucial. Both teams will face adversity at some point during the game, whether it’s a scoring drought, foul trouble, or a momentum shift. The team that can stay composed, stay focused, and maintain their intensity throughout the game will have a significant advantage. This means staying disciplined on both ends of the floor, staying positive and supporting each other, and not letting the pressure of the moment get to them.
In conclusion, the team that can excel in these three key areas – defense, offense, and mental toughness – will have the best chance of coming out on top in this top-20 matchup. It’s sure to be an intense and exciting game, and these keys will be crucial for both teams as they battle it out on the court.
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