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3 keys for Xavier Musketeers to get road Big East win at St. John’s
Winning on the road in college basketball is one of the hardest things to do. When you pull it off, the rewards are significant.
Xavier nearly doubled its chances of reaching the NCAA Tournament (20% to 35.4%, according to TeamRankings.com) with its 59-57 upset of No. 7 Marquette at Fiserv Forum.
Xavier’s first road win over a top 10 team in nearly four years was a giant step in the right direction to getting this season back on track.
“You can’t get too high on anything. Things are never as good or as bad as they seem,” Zach Freemantle said. “We just gotta stay even keeled. Enjoy the win but move onto the next game.”
More:Here are the numbers behind Xavier’s historic road upset of No. 7 Marquette Saturday
A veteran answer from Xavier’s veteran forward. The Musketeers had a few hours to celebrate beating Marquette before turning the page to another Quadrant 1 opportunity Wednesday against No. 20 St. John’s at Madison Square Garden.
More:Xavier women’s basketball snaps 47-game Big East losing streak with win over Butler
3 keys to a Xavier Musketeers win over St. John’s
1. Xavier has to bring toughness to rebounding battle
The focal point to Wednesday’s rematch with St. John’s will be on the glass. Earlier this month, St. John’s walked into Cintas Center and left with an 82-72 victory by winning the rebounding battle, 50-30. The Red Storm turned 20 offensive rebounds − the most allowed by Xavier since 2013 − into 22 second-chance points.
Sean Miller called the loss Xavier’s “low point.” Xavier has won three straight since to get back in the Big East mix.
Xavier’s ability to flip the script Wednesday will go a long way to another chance at a road upset. St. John’s, No. 12 in KenPom in offensive rebounding, is still going to crash the glass with ruthless abandon. Can Xavier keep the floodgates shut on the boards?
2. Can Xavier wreak havoc in the turnover department?
Xavier is quickly becoming a defensive-led team. The Musketeers now rank No. 38 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, while the offense is just inside the top 70. The biggest surprise of Saturday’s upset was how Xavier’s defense was able to force Marquette, the No. 1 offense in the nation in turnover percentage, into coughing it up 13 times.
St. John’s plays at the fastest tempo in the Big East and does a great job of protecting the ball while forcing plenty of turnovers on the defensive end (No. 18 in steal percentage). Xavier will have to duplicate Saturday’s performance from a turnover perspective to keep St. John’s from ripping off numerous momentum-grabbing runs.
3. Xavier’s offense needs clean looks
An efficient offense is a nice starting block for every game, but Xavier will need to get quality looks against a St. John’s defense that is one of the best in the country.
Xavier was able to beat Marquette despite going just 2-of-17 from three-point range. Those numbers won’t hold up in the long run and Xavier won’t survive many road conference games without perimeter production. If there’s a way to beat St. John’s, it’s from beyond the arc. The metrics says the Red Storm are elite inside the arc (No. 11 against 2-point shots) and middle of the road (No. 186) from deep.
The three teams to beat St. John’s this season (Baylor, Georgia, Creighton) combined to go 29-of-67 (43.2%) from deep. The Johnnies have held opponents to just 29.7% from distance over their five-game winning streak.
In the first meeting, St. John’s held Xavier to just 36.7% shooting and 4-of-18 from the perimeter. Xavier was able to salvage its poor offensive night by hitting 24-of-25 at the stripe.
Xavier Musketeers at St. John’s Red Storm
Tip: Wednesday, 7 p.m., Madison Square Garden (19,500)
TV/Radio: FS1/700 WLW
Ratings: Xavier is No. 47 in KenPom and St. John’s is No. 18. Xavier is No. 54 in the NCAA NET Rankings and St. John’s is No. 25.
History: Xavier leads the all-time series 17-8.
St. John’s Red Storm scouting report
Record: 16-3 (7-1 Big East)
Head coach: Rick Pitino (36-16 at St. John’s, second season)
Offense: 80.6 ppg
Defense: 66.1 ppg
Overview: St. John’s is off to a 5-0 start in 2025 since a one-point loss at Creighton on New Year’s Eve. The Red Storm are coming off a 79-51 beatdown of Seton Hall Saturday in New Jersey and have climbed back into the AP Top 25 at the No. 20 slot.
St. John’s is 12-0 at home this season with the majority of those contests in Queens at Carnesecca Arena. At Madison Square Garden, St. John’s is 3-0 with double-digit wins over New Mexico and Villanova, followed by a sluggish 63-58 victory over Georgetown Jan. 14.
Utah transfer guard Deivon Smith, who started in the win over Xavier Jan. 7, missed the win over Georgetown with a right shoulder bruise and returned against Seton Hall. In 17 minutes off the bench, Smith had two points on 0-of-6 shooting.
Projected starting lineup
(Pos., Height, Stats)
Simeon Wilcher (G, 6’4″, 8.9 ppg)
Kadary Richmond (G, 6’6″, 10.8 ppg)
RJ Luis Jr. (G, 6’7″, 17.8 ppg)
Aaron Scott (G, 6’7″, 8.5 ppg)
Zuby Ejiofor (F, 6’9″, 14.5 ppg)
Xavier Musketeers scouting report
Record: 12-7 (4-4 Big East)
Head coach: Sean Miller (175-82 at Xavier, eighth season)
Offense: 77.3 ppg
Defense: 68.8 ppg
Projected starters
(Pos., Height, Stats)
Dayvion McKnight (G, 6’0″, 10.4 ppg)
Ryan Conwell (G, 6’4″, 16.5 ppg)
Marcus Foster (G, 6’5″, 8.3 ppg)
Dailyn Swain (G/F, 6’8″, 9.3 ppg)
Zach Freemantle (F, 6’9″, 16.8 ppg)
Players to watch
There are three Big East teams ranked in the KenPom top 30 for defensive efficiency (St. John’s No. 5, Marquette No. 16, Georgetown No. 28). In four games against those opponents, Ryan Conwell has combined to go just 12-of-44 from the floor and 4-of-29 from three-point range.
Conwell had a season-low six points against Marquette following a 34-point explosion against Villanova. It’s up to Xavier to scheme up some open looks for Conwell, who can change a game when he gets going.
St. John’s big man Zuby Ejiofor feasted against Xavier in the first meeting with a team-high 18 points and 12 rebounds, including nine offensive boards. St. John’s is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (No. 302) but that doesn’t matter if you can’t force the Johnnies into one-and-done possessions.
St. John’s guard RJ Luis Jr. has three doubles-doubles over the last five games and is averaging 22.2 points over that span.
- Strong Defense: The Xavier Musketeers will need to bring their best defensive effort to St. John’s in order to secure a road Big East win. They must focus on limiting the Red Storm’s scoring opportunities and forcing turnovers to create easy scoring chances for themselves.
- Balanced Scoring: Xavier cannot rely on one player to carry the scoring load in this matchup. They will need contributions from multiple players to keep the St. John’s defense on their toes and prevent them from keying in on one particular scorer. Sharing the ball and finding open looks will be crucial for the Musketeers.
- Mental Toughness: Playing on the road in the Big East can be a tough challenge, but Xavier must stay focused and composed throughout the game. They cannot let the hostile environment at St. John’s affect their play. Staying mentally tough and executing their game plan will be key to securing a road victory in this crucial conference matchup.
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Xavier Musketeers, road win, Big East, St. John’s, college basketball, NCAA, game strategy, player performance, sports analysis, game preview
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