Editor: This story is part of a two-piece preview looking at the strengths and weaknesses of Texas football in relation to its Peach Bowl opponent, Arizona State football.
The first round of the College Football Playoff was kind to the favorites, including the Texas football team.
All four of the top seeds won in convincing fashion to set up a tasty slate of CFP quarterfinals. Again, the Longhorns (12-2) will be looking to stave off an upset when they head to Atlanta to play Arizona State (11-2) in the Peach Bowl on Jan. 1 (noon, ESPN).
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Texas, which received an at-large big after losing the SEC title game, is favored despite being the fifth seed and Arizona State, which won the Big 12, being the fourth seed. Can Arizona State be the first team to pull off a CFP upset this season and send the Longhorns home early? Which team will head to the Cotton Bowl to play the winner of Ohio State and Oregon in a national semifinal?
Here are three reasons the Longhorns could be in trouble against the Sun Devils:
Cam Skattebo is elite ― and not Arizona State’s only weapon
The first objective for the Texas defense is to stop the best player on the Arizona State roster, and that’s Cam Skattebo, who finished fifth in the Heisman Trophy voting. The bruising tailback combines a workhorse role with elite efficiency, carrying the ball 263 times for 1,568 yards and 19 touchdowns. Notably, he’s also a big-time weapon through the air, compiling 506 receiving yards.
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But, if the Longhorns sell out to stop Skattebo, the Sun Devils have a quarterback who can make that decision hurt. The Sun Devils’ breakout season has been partially fueled by redshirt freshman QB Sam Leavitt, a Michigan State transfer. Leavitt was statistically the most efficient quarterback in the Big 12 this year, completing 63.2% of his passes for 2,663 yards and 24 touchdowns. He’s also a threat to run, with 383 rushing yards and five touchdowns.
On the whole, Arizona State ranks among the most well-rounded offenses Texas has faced this season.
Arizona State is well-positioned to capitalize on turnover problems
An inability to hold onto the football ranks among the top bugaboos for this Texas team this year.
The chronic turnover issues don’t seem to have a root cause, but they just keep happening all the same. Fumbles, drops, batted passes — you name it, Texas has spent 2024 collecting all of the turnover Infinity Stones. The Longhorns have given the ball away 23 times. Georgia, with 18 turnovers, is the second-most-turnover-prone team remaining in the field.
Though the turnover issues have hampered Texas, the Longhorns haven’t been crippled by them, in large part because their defense is tied for the nation’s lead with 29 takeaways.
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But if Texas gives the ball away too often against Arizona State, the Sun Devils might not be too obliged to give it back. Arizona State has just eight turnovers on the year, which is tied for second in the country.
Arizona State has the tools to shorten the game against Texas football
The Longhorns, on paper, are better than the Sun Devils. The Horns are loaded with NFL talent at just about every position, and they’re an experienced group after taking a trip to last season’s playoff. That edge translates into a 13½-point line from the sportsbooks.
But Arizona State has everything it needs to execute one of the most tried-and-true underdog strategies. With Skattebo, an elite running back who can at times carry an offense on his back, the Sun Devils are perfectly capable of controlling the clock and shrinking the game.
Arizona State comes into this game 15th in the country in average time of possession. Quinn Ewers, Quintrevion Wisner and Texas’ offense full of weapons can’t hurt the Sun Devils if they’re on the sideline.
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- Injuries to key players: If key players such as quarterback Sam Ehlinger or star wide receiver Devin Duvernay were to suffer injuries leading up to the College Football Playoff, it could greatly impact the Longhorns’ chances of success. Depth at key positions is crucial in the high-stakes environment of the playoffs, and any significant injuries could derail Texas’ hopes of advancing.
- Inconsistent performance: Throughout the season, the Longhorns have shown flashes of brilliance but have also had their fair share of struggles. Inconsistency in key areas such as defense or special teams could prove costly in a playoff matchup against a top-tier opponent. If Texas is unable to put together a complete and consistent performance, they could find themselves on the losing end of a CFP upset.
- Mental mistakes: In high-pressure situations like the College Football Playoff, mental mistakes can be the difference between victory and defeat. Whether it’s turnovers, penalties, or missed assignments, the Longhorns must stay focused and disciplined in order to avoid falling victim to an upset. If Texas is unable to maintain their composure and limit mental errors, they could find themselves on the wrong end of a shocking defeat in the playoffs.
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