A look at the potential fit

Update (2 p.m. EST): It looks like the Vegas Golden Knights are the front-runners to land Brandon Saad’s services.

Update (2:42 p.m. EST): The Golden Knights have officially confirmed the signing of Saad to a one-year, $1.5 million contract.

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This afternoon at 2 p.m. EST, 32-year-old left winger Brandon Saad will clear waivers, officially terminating his contract with the St. Louis Blues. A decision from Saad’s camp on his next destination could arrive as soon as today, and the Maple Leafs are reportedly in the mix.

Toronto GM Brad Treliving is reportedly “pushing hard” for Saad’s services, along with a handful of other teams that include Edmonton, where Saad’s former GM from Chicago with whom Saad won two Stanley Cups, Stan Bowman, is leading the charge. The Leafs also have a relationship connection to the sunnier days of Saad’s playing career through their current head coach, Craig Berube, who coached Saad in St. Louis for two and a third seasons.

Saad’s best season under Berube was a 24-goal campaign in the first season (2021-22) after signing his now-terminated five-year, $4.5 million AAV contract with St. Louis as a UFA. Berube regularly leaned on an effective veteran line of David Perron, Ryan O’Reilly, and Saad throughout the regular season; the trio out-scored the opposition by a 17-10 margin at five-on-five with positive underlying numbers (they finished 2-2 at five-on-five in the 12-game playoff run that ended at the hands of the eventual Cup champs, the Avalanche, in six games).

As part of his 24-goal, 49-point season under Berube in 2021-22, Saad also potted eight power-play goals and 13 power-play points, to go along with one shorthanded goal and three shorthanded points. Despite a quieter playoff run — two goals, five points in 12 games — it was a successful first season of the new long-term contract for Saad as an all-situations contributor under Berube.

“He just builds our game with his direct play and skating… He’s on top of things, he does a lot of good things that way, he’s an all-situational guy for us, too, and he really drives that north kind of hockey, forechecking, skating, that type of play.”

– Craig Berube in 2022 on Brandon Saad’s game/style of play

In the past two seasons, as the Blues’ team fortunes have dipped with back-to-back playoff misses and Berube was dismissed in the first half of last season, Saad remained productive as a 20+ goal scorer. He potted 19 in 71 in 2022-23 and scored 26 goals just last season, the highest goal total of his career since his one 30+ goal season (31) way back in 2015-16 with Columbus.

It then went south quickly under two different head coaches this season in St. Louis, Drew Bannister and then Jim Montgomery. Saad’s ice time has fallen off, he’s been shifted around the lineup a bunch, and the Blues have been outscored and out-possessed in just about every single line situation Saad’s been a part of (granted, they’re a bottom-half-of-the-league team in general in all of the major five-on-five metrics except goals, where they’re up just 48-47).

Shared TOI	Saad’s 5v5 linemates in 2024-25	GF	GA	SF%	CF%
77:53	BRAYDEN SCHENN – BRANDON SAAD – JAKE NEIGHBOURS	2	6	42.9	48.8
73:04	BRANDON SAAD – PAVEL BUCHNEVICH – ROBERT THOMAS	4	7	47.4	51.3
60:13	BRAYDEN SCHENN – BRANDON SAAD – JORDAN KYROU	2	4	42.4	37.5
44:30	BRANDON SAAD – JORDAN KYROU – ROBERT THOMAS	2	1	48	46.2
39:42	BRAYDEN SCHENN – BRANDON SAAD – DYLAN HOLLOWAY	2	0	67.5	50.6
34:17	BRANDON SAAD – ROBERT THOMAS – JAKE NEIGHBOURS	1	3	40.5	40.3
18:02	BRANDON SAAD – OSKAR SUNDQVIST – ZACK BOLDUC	1	0	57.1	46.4
16:30	BRANDON SAAD – JAKE NEIGHBOURS – DYLAN HOLLOWAY	0	0	41.7	38.2
15:35	BRANDON SAAD – ZACK BOLDUC – DYLAN HOLLOWAY	0	2	50	57.7

data courtesy of dobberhockey.com

Saad is solidly built at 6’1, 215 pounds with good straight-line speed, albeit there isn’t a lot of meanness to his game (he has just seven recorded hits this season, the lowest among Blues regular forwards). He’s demonstrated the ability to score goals in tight to the net and also beat goalies cleanly over the years with his powerful shot, including a hat trick earlier this month.

Saad has been highly inconsistent this year but has still shown pronounced glimpses of his finishing ability in bursts; his seven goals in 43 games this season — just a 13-goal pace over 82 — were scored in two two-goal games and one natural hat trick against the Senators (all nice goals with quality finishes).

That means Saad hasn’t scored in 40 of his 43 games this season, and some of his offensive slumps have been gruesome; he went 10 games without a point (minus-seven) in December and recently went six games without a point (minus-five) before the mutually-agreed-upon contract termination (that was his second six-game pointless slump this season, to go along with the aforementioned 10-gamer). He’s been healthy scratched five times and had his engagement level questioned by a fan base that generally has viewed him as a highly likable and dependable player over the years.

As for the engagement point, it is certainly a promising sign that Saad was willing to forgo nearly $5.4 million in guaranteed salary in order to avoid the AHL and rebuild his season/keep his NHL career alive. Especially for a man who has two Cups, three kids, and is on the back nine of his hockey career, it’s an admirable — if relatively financially risky — move that shows Saad is very much still committed to succeeding in the league and turning the ship around with a change of scenery.

The fit for this Leafs team is clear and obvious, beyond Berube’s familiarity/style fit with the player during the better times in Saad’s career, as well as the x2 Cup-winning experience (with some solid playoff goal production over some of the runs he’s been part of, including seven goals in 10 games with the Avalanche). The Leafs simply need more NHL forwards who can produce at a reasonable level offensively or at least have a recent track record of doing so in the league.

The drop-off after their top-six forwards at the moment is too stark in terms of offensive production; only Nick Robertson (eight goals) is a lock at this point to break 10 goals among the other forwards on the team. Even Robertson is still in and out of the lineup occasionally, isn’t trusted with much responsibility overall, and is viewed just as much as a potential trade piece as he is a potential factor in the team’s 2025 playoff roster at this time.

The team’s inability to form three reasonably productive lines is a problem, and we’ve seen the lack of quality scoring depth recently exposed more starkly due to the injury issues inside the top six, with Matthew Knies and John Tavares recently missing time. The Leafs have scored one goal or fewer in five of their last eight games and scored just once in each of their three consecutive losses over the past week and a half.

Sizing up some of the hypotheticals with Saad’s potential fit, the Leafs could slot him with Tavares and William Nylander, bumping McMann down to help drive a third line with Max Domi (who simply needs to be better in the second half regardless) along with Max Pacioretty or Nick Robertson (or maybe Calle Jarnkrok at some point?). We can play with the various possibilities and line permutations, but when fully healthy, the team needs a top-six-capable forward on the third line if they’re going to possess the depth required to survive all the adversity the playoffs bring.

Saad hasn’t been a top-six producer this season, but he certainly has been as recently as last season. It’s a worthwhile, free-wallet-type bet to explore if a change of scenery, with a dash of familiarity in there with Berube’s connection to the player, is all Saad needs to return to 20+ goal form, considering he was a 26-goal-scorer as recently as 2023-24 (just 40-odd games ago).

It’s not like Saad’s legs are suddenly shot. As Robert Thomas put it in the second half of last season, “Straight line, I think he’s one of the fastest guys on our team, and I don’t think many people know that.”

Ideally, Saad’s new contract comes in under the buriable threshold ($1.15 million) on a one-year contract, eliminating any risk should the possible signs of his demise this season be a harbinger of things to come. If the contract comes in a little above the buriable threshold, it’s probably something the Leafs could live with, too, when we account for the non-existent acquisition cost and their current need at the position.

The Leafs don’t have many trade assets to play with this trade deadline, and a strong argument can be made that the defense is the more glaring need of the two positions. Between a possible Saad pickup and a potential eventual return for Jarnkrok, the Leafs might be able to shore up their forward depth without spending futures they can’t freely afford to sacrifice.

Given his current circumstances, Saad is likely looking for a one-year, bet-on-himself type of contract in a situation where he’ll receive a real opportunity to turn his season around and revitalize his career ahead of 2025 free agency. It’s up to Treliving to sell him on Toronto as the best place to do it.