an expert breakdown of the Hawkeyes as Wisconsin resumes conference play

Wisconsin returns home this week, as the Badgers host Iowa in a conference matchup on Friday night at the Kohl Center. A big game for a Wisconsin (10-3) team looking for their first conference win this season, we caught up with Hawkeye Insider’s Sean Bock to help get an in-depth look at Iowa before the game. 

Bock helps take a look at Iowa’s season as a whole, key names to know, predictions and much more in this in-depth preview. 

Meet the Opponent, Iowa edition: 

Sitting at 10-3 as the Big Ten jumps back into conference play, how has this season gone so far based on preseason expectations for Iowa to this point?

 

Sean Bock: With a 10-3 record, I think things are sitting right where expectations were coming into this season. The loss against Utah State is the one that the Hawkeyes wish they could get back as they shot 5-of-26 from three in a single-digit loss as Payton Sandfort and Josh Dix were both dealing with injuries. The Hawkeyes were also up on Iowa State for about 35 minutes a few weeks back, but the Cyclones were able to come away with a win. Iowa State is a no doubt national title contender. Iowa also nearly beat Michigan in Ann Arbor, but came up just short. 

Iowa’s best wins this season have come in neutral site settings against Utah and Washington State, and then a home win over Northwestern on a Dix buzzer- beater. 

Health has been an issue for Iowa in the early going. Sandfort and Dix were both dealing with nagging wrist injuries early in the year, while Seydou Traore couldn’t stay healthy and missed a number of key games. Freshman sharpshooter Cooper Koch was out for a few weeks while Owen Freeman missed the last game against New Hampshire with a tweaked ankle. 

That said, this Iowa team has not played with a full, healthy lineup to this point and if this team can get and stay healthy, then there’s reason to have a bit more optimism about this group moving forward in reaching its ceiling. 

The Hawkeyes beat a good Northwestern team, and lost pretty close games to Michigan on the road, and then Iowa State at home as noted. What stood out to you in those key matchups, and what generally allows Iowa to play up to their opponents this season?

Bock: This team competes. When Iowa is clicking on offense and sharing the basketball, this group is really dangerous. The defense has improved this year, but rim protection is still a concern along with defensive rebounding. 

This team has a tendency to hit a couple of shots and put together great halves or stretches offensively, but they can also fall into the trap of going through droughts and while this team has improved defensively, it’s still not at a level where it can rely on its defense for an extended period of time. 

One thing about this Iowa team that makes it beat anyone is how it shares the basketball with assist rate, and also three-point shooting. Iowa is 93rd in the country in point distribution from three, compared to 327th a year ago. This team is shooting a lot more three-pointers and it has a lot of capable three-point shooters that can keep them in games. Iowa also ranks in the top-30 in three-point and two-point percentage and 12th in offensive turnover percentage. 

I do think it really helps that Iowa has veteran players like Sandfort, Dix, and also transfer guard Drew Thelwell, who has been a very positive addition for the Hawkeyes so far in the backcourt. 

Iowa was hot in the first half against Iowa State, but just ran out of gas in the end. The Hawkeyes had much of the same against Northwestern, but the ‘Cats came roaring back as Iowa went through one of its patented second half droughts. Michigan got out to a fast start against the Hawkeyes, but Iowa was able to claw back and stay in the fight, thanks to having only four turnovers on the day and coming up with timely plays. 

This team can really be difficult to defend on the offensive end, but the lapses it tends to have are worrisome, especially in big games. Defensive rebounding has been an issue for the Hawkeyes this season, too. Iowa is 295th nationally in defensive rebounding rate and that has bit this team in the butt on multiple occasions, especially the three losses. 

Payton Sandfort coming back was huge for Iowa, but younger players like Owen Freeman and Brock Harding have also stepped into larger roles this Winter. How has their play grown, and who else do Badger fans need to look out for this week?

Bock: Owen Freeman is one of the best big men in the Big Ten and could be elevated into All-American status as a junior and senior if he decides to stay in college. Freeman is very effective around the basket, and his rim protection along with presence on the inside is crucial for the Hawkeyes. 

Freeman is shooting 68.5 percent on two-point shots this season, and after struggling with finishing in a couple of games this year, he is now making 72 percent of his shots at the rim. Freeman is mobile, athletic, covers a lot of ground, and is also more capable of hitting an outside shot this season. 

Iowa needs him to stay on the floor because he is the most resistance that the Hawkeyes have at the rim with his defense and shot blocking ability. 

On the negative side, Freeman has a tendency to get into early foul trouble, and with Fran McCaffery on the sideline, if a player picks up two early fouls, he’s on the bench for the rest of the first half. Freeman also picks up silly fouls at times and his conditioning has been questionable this year so it’s hard for him to play extended minutes on the floor if he’s huffing and puffing. 

Harding has seen most of his offensive numbers go up this season in an expanded role. He is a quick, heady point guard who competes on both ends of the floor, but most opponents will have a size advantage on him given that he’s 6-foot. Harding has one of the Big Ten’s best assist rates, but he also has a tendency of turning over the basketball. He has a knack for playing too fast at times. He and Sandfort are the biggest ‘no, no, no, yes’ players on this team. Harding has actually struggled in transition for Iowa this season with his turnover rate and field goal percentage. He does know how to find his teammates and get them in places to score. 

Where he has improved the most is his shotmaking from three. He is 15-of-36 from three this season and has already made as many three-pointers as he did as a freshman. Harding is 11-of-27 on catch and shoot three-pointers this season and has hit some key shots for the Hawkeyes in big games. 

For Iowa to defeat the Badgers on the road, they have to…

Bock: I say this every game, but Iowa has to take and make the three. The three-point shot is so important for this Iowa team because it opens up the interior for Freeman to go to work, too. 

If Iowa is not hitting shots from the perimeter, then the offense gets stagnant, and those lapses won’t work against a Wisconsin team that is capable of getting up and down the floor more than usual and scoring points. 

The Badgers have been able to get to the free throw line and execute from the charity stripe. Iowa has to do a better job of defending without fouling, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Badgers try to attack Freeman right away to get him into early foul trouble. 

Wisconsin is also one of the best teams nationally in finishing at the rim and interior defense has been a weak spot for the Hawkeyes. Iowa needs to find a way to keep Wisconsin from driving and finishing at the rim as well as keeping them off the free throw line. If John Tonje, John Blackwell, and Nolan Winter are getting easy looks at the basket and getting to the free throw line, it may be a rough night. 

This also might be a close game, so the Hawkeyes’ free throw shooting will be important. 

For Wisconsin to win their first Big Ten game, they have to….

Bock: Wisconsin needs to live inside the paint and also hit a couple of three-pointers. Iowa’s defense has improved this season, but there still are lapses. 

I think you have to try and extend the Iowa defense out a bit because it wouldn’t surprise me if the Hawkeyes force Wisconsin into shooting three-pointers. 

This Iowa team is also very vulnerable on the glass and if you take advantage of the rebounding battle, you’re going to be in a spot to win. 

Sean, what do you see happening in this one at the Kohl Center and why?

Bock: This feels like a must-win for Wisconsin at home after the Badgers have dropped their first two Big Ten games. 

I kinda like Iowa in this matchup if the Hawkeyes can hit shots, but Wisconsin is playing at home and the Kohl Center has always been a tough spot to play for Iowa. 

I do worry that Wisconsin is going to find a way to get what it wants inside and that’s going to be a huge part in this game. 

I think free throw shooting is going to make the difference in the end and that favors the Badgers, but I think it’ll be within a possession or two.