Beating the Packers Would Signal Historic Change In Minnesota

Kevin O’Connell has preached keeping a “1-0” mindset this season. He wants the team to focus on next week without looking ahead to other games. This week will test the team’s focus more than any other. The Green Bay Packers are coming to town, but a potential Week 18 showdown with the Detroit Lions for the NFC’s No. 1 seed looms.

There shouldn’t be any reason for the Vikings to assume they’ll beat the Packers. Green Bay is 11-4, and their four losses have come against the 13-2 Lions, 13-2 Vikings, and 12-3 Philadelphia Eagles. The Vikings must beat the Packers to guarantee that their Week 18 matchup with the Lions determines the NFC North.

It’s the type of opportunity that past Vikings teams have fumbled. Since their last Super Bowl appearance in January 1977, they have made the playoffs 23 times. Still, they have only held home-field advantage once, despite having numerous opportunities to secure it down the stretch of the regular season.

The Vikings could have secured the NFC’s top seed in 2000 when they entered December with an 11-2 record, two games better than the New York Giants. Minnesota just had to beat either the St. Louis Rams, who entered the month on a three-game losing streak, or the Packers, who were 6-7 going into the season’s final month.

Instead, Minnesota’s defense completely collapsed. The Vikings fell 40-29 to the Rams after allowing 508 yards to the Greatest Show On Turf. Minnesota returned home to host the Packers and lost 33-28 after allowing 400 yards. With home-field advantage out of reach, the Vikings rested starters midway through their Week 17 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. They traveled to New York to face the Giants in the NFC Championship and famously lost 41-0.

Nine years later, the Vikings acquired Brett Favre to help them make a championship run. Minnesota had been chasing the New Orleans Saints all season. The Vikings entered December 10-1, while the Saints were 11-0. But after a 13-0 start, the Saints finally lost on a Saturday night to the Dallas Cowboys, opening the door for the Vikings to close ground.

However, the 11-2 Vikings lost to the 5-8 Carolina Panthers the following day. The Saints lost again the following week to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Minnesota had a Monday night date with the 5-9 Chicago Bears. But because the game was at Soldier Field, the vibes were off, and Adrian Peterson’s fumble in overtime allowed the Bears to walk off with a 39-yard touchdown pass.

The loss meant the Saints clinched home field. After dismantling the Cowboys 34-3 in the Divisional round of the playoffs, the Vikings traveled to New Orleans and played in the noisy Superdome. They lost 31-28 in overtime. Would that game have played out differently if it was at the Metrodome?

The Vikings have also lost these games on smaller scales. On Christmas Eve 2004, they faced the Packers with the NFC North on the line. Both teams were 8-6, and a loss could keep the loser out of the playoffs. The game went back and forth, but the Packers scored 10 points in the final 3:34 to win the NFC North.

Minnesota made things even more complicated the following week, losing 21-18 to the 5-10 Washington Redskins. The loss dropped the Vikings to 8-8, leaving their playoff hopes in the balance. Minnesota’s playoff hopes were secured only after the Saints beat the Panthers 21-18. That forced the Vikings to play two road games, one in Green Bay (where they won 31-17) and one in Philadelphia, where the season would end after a 27-14 loss.

These teams all had their own issues. The 2000 team was a poor man’s version of the historic 1998 version. But the defense was one of the league’s worst and couldn’t hold its own when the team needed it the most. Favre and head coach Brad Childress were openly feuding, getting caught on NBC cameras as Childress tried pulling Favre from the Panthers game. And 2004 ended the Randy Moss Era, where his toxicity affected comradery.

The 2024 Vikings don’t have these issues. Deciphering if the offense or defense is the team’s strength can sometimes be challenging. O’Connell seems to have a great relationship with everyone on the team. And Justin Jefferson doesn’t bring the on- or off-field drama that Moss did despite being one of the league’s best receivers.

When putting all of this together on top of the team just flat-out being good, the Vikings have a chance to beat the Packers and set the stage for one of their biggest regular-season games in our lifetime. Green Bay is good enough to beat the Vikings, even if Minnesota plays a great game.

But if the Vikings want to flip the script and make the NFC playoffs run through Minnesota for the first time since 1998, this is the game they will win. They already beat the Packers 31-29 in September. A mature team would also handle business at home.