BOZICH | ACC opportunity abounds as Louisville awaits North Carolina visit | Louisville Sports

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — The Southeastern Conference has five basketball teams ranked in the top 10. The Atlantic Coast Conference has five teams projected to make the 2025 NCAA Tournament field.

I’m not here to take another shot at the league that Dean Smith and Mike Krzyzewski made famous. I’m here to remind you that opportunity awaits Pat Kelsey’s University of Louisville men’s basketball team when the Cardinals play the first of 18 consecutive ACC games at 6 p.m. Wednesday against North Carolina at the KFC Yum! Center.

The ACC is not a ferocious league this season.

That does not mean the games will not be close, competitive and difficult to navigate. They will be. They are in every conference.

But it does mean the only ACC team that has separated itself from the pack is Duke. The Blue Devils are the only ACC team ranked in the Associated Press Top 25. The Blue Devils and Pitt are the only ACC teams ranked in the top 25 in the NCAA’s NET computer formula.

The Blue Devils are projected to win the ACC with an 18-2 record by Ken Pomeroy’s computer formula, which has Duke four games ahead of Pitt, SMU and Clemson.

Joe Lunardi posted his latest NCAA Tournament forecast at ESPN.com on Tuesday morning. His five tournament teams are Duke (a No. 1 seed), Pitt (6-seed), Clemson (8-seed), North Carolina (10-seed) and SMU (11-seed).

Lunardi ranks Louisville’s the next-best ACC squad, eight spots away from making the NCAA field.

Translation: Carolina is a 10-seed. Louisville is within sniffing distance of an 11-seed. A victory over the Tar Heels on Wednesday would be meaningful for the Cardinals.

Quite meaningful.

The Cards have lost five straight to UNC by an average of 19 points. Their last win over the Tar Heels was Feb. 22, 2020, season two of Chris Mack.

Like U of L, North Carolina has lost five games this season. Like U of L, North Carolina has lost all of those games to teams ranked in the top 40 in Pomeroy’s computer formula.

In fact, all of UNC’s losses have been to teams in Pomeroy’s top 20: Kansas (No. 9); Auburn (No. 1); Michigan State (No. 20); Alabama (No. 8) and Florida (No. 6).

“Very, very, very good,” Kelsey said of the Tar Heels.

“Like us, they played one of the toughest schedules in the country, at least when I go back and look at strength of schedule and stuff like that.

“But you know, each one of their losses was very close, and against very, very, very good teams. Listen, they’re one of the most talented teams in the country.

“They’re led by one of the most decorated college players in the last several decades. Hubert Davis is a phenomenal coach. Obviously, the history of North Carolina basketball speaks for itself … we’ve got to be on our best to beat them.”

The metrics suggest a Louisville victory would not be a Shock the World moment. At KenPom, the forecast is UNC, 82-81. At Bart Torvik, it is UNC, 84-81. At Erik Haslam’s website it is UNC, 82-78. A one- or two-possession game.

The Cards do not have to make a return trip to Chapel Hill. This is a grand opportunity to score points for Selection Sunday.

The ACC road hardly looks overwhelming. Ten of the 18 ACC programs have five or more losses. Three have already scheduled themselves to losing records.

Kelsey does not agree. He worked as an assistant at Wake Forest and also coached in the footprint of the league at Winthrop and Charleston.

“It’s one of the best (leagues) in the history of college basketball, if not the best,” Kelsey said

“I have the utmost respect for the coaches and the teams in this league. Rankings and things like that are for you guys. I don’t pay much attention to them. I just focus on the next task at hand, the next team we’re prepared for. And obviously we play an extremely dangerous, talented North Carolina team.”

A deeper look shows this: ACC teams have already lost four games to teams with computer power ratings of 200 or worse — and five more to teams ranked 100 or worse.

ACC teams have lost to Dartmouth (Boston College); Cornell (California); Charleston Southern (Miami); Cal Poly (Stanford), Jacksonville (Virginia Tech) and Elon (Notre Dame).

Ugh.

Tony Bennett walked out on Virginia days before the season. Jim Larranaga quit Miami last week. Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech will likely be looking for new coaches.

Opportunity abounds for Louisville, starting with the visit from North Carolina Wednesday night.

Picked to finish ninth prior the season, the Cards should be able to exceed that.

“I don’t know what we were picked to start,” Kelsey said.

“You said we were ninth … not sure I even really knew that. I knew we weren’t picked first. That’s for sure. I don’t pay attention to standings. I pay attention to where our team is today.”

Where the Cards are today is in position to take a major step.

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