Champions League matchday seven: Who can qualify for the knockout phase? Who could be eliminated?

UEFA’s decision to replace a group stage with a league format has split opinion, but having Champions League football in January is not something that many neutral fans are complaining about.

With two games remaining in the league phase, it is still anybody’s guess who will make the “Top Eight”, which ensures automatic progression into the round of 16 — and 21 sides are still capable of doing so.

At the other end of the table, Paris Saint-Germain currently lie in the elimination zone, while Premier League champions Manchester City are teetering one point above them.

With the fates of 33 clubs still yet to be determined, there is plenty to play for as we enter matchday seven.

Here, The Athletic explains what’s at stake.

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Who can qualify for the knockout phase this week?

Who said the league phase killed the magic of the Champions League? Ahead of the penultimate matchday, Liverpool are the only side whose qualification for the round of 16 lies squarely in their own hands.

Liverpool

• Arne Slot’s side will confirm their spot in the top eight with a draw against Lille at Anfield.
• Should they lose their remaining two matches, Liverpool are still very likely finish in the top eight. To fall into the knockout phase play-offs, the teams currently ranked third to eighth (Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Inter, Brest, and Lille) would need to win both of their remaining matches, as well as one of Dortmund, Bayern, Atletico Madrid, or Milan.
• According to The Athletic’s projection model, powered by Opta data, Liverpool have a greater than 99 per cent chance of automatic progression into the round of 16.

Barcelona

• If Barcelona beat Benfica on Tuesday, Dortmund, Bayern, Atletico, and Milan would need to win their remaining two matches and overturn a significant goal difference for Hansi Flick’s side to fall out of the top eight.
• Heading into matchday seven, Barcelona have a positive goal difference of 14 — the best in the tournament. They have also scored 21 goals, the most of any side. If teams are level on points in the league phase, goal difference is the first criterion for determining which club places higher, followed by goals scored, away goals, wins, and away wins.
• Due to their league-best goal difference and goals-scored tallies at this stage, The Athletic’s projection model gives Barcelona a 90 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight.

Clubs positioned third to eighth: Arsenal, Leverkusen, Villa, Inter, Brest, Lille

• While a win for any of these sides on matchday seven may not mathematically confirm their qualification, it would put them in a strong position to finish in the top eight.
• However unlikely, a draw could allow clubs currently positioned as low as 21st to pass them with wins in their final two matches.

Who can put themselves in contention for the top eight?

The beauty of the new league phase is that it has opened the door for so many possibilities as we enter its penultimate week.

Of the clubs currently outside the top eight, Dortmund, Bayern, Atletico, and Milan are best positioned to break in during gameweek seven. These sides are all on 12 points, one point behind Lille, who occupy eighth place on the league table and are facing Liverpool on Tuesday.

Should Lille fail to beat the league leaders, any of the clubs currently positioned ninth to 15th will overtake the French side with a win.

The same applies to Arsenal, Leverkusen, Villa, Inter and Brest, who are level on points with Lille on 13.

As it stands, any club from 26th place and up can finish in the top eight. With seven points from six matches, The Athletic projects Stuttgart (26th) and PSG’s (25th) chances of a surge into the automatic knockout qualification spots at under one per cent. Ahead of their match against Feyenoord, our projection model gives Bayern the best chance (65 per cent) of finishing in the top eight of sides not currently in there.

Real Madrid’s struggles in this season’s Champions League are well documented, yet it is still somewhat surprising that they are in 20th place with nine points — the same total as Celtic, who have not reached the knockout stage of Europe’s premier cup competition since 2012-13.

With winnable meetings against Salzburg and surprise-package Brest on the horizon, it would not be shocking to see the holders earn maximum points from their remaining matches for a late push at qualification for the top eight, but the data suggests it’s unlikely. Like PSG, our projection model rates Madrid’s chances of finishing eighth or above at under one per cent.

It’s a similar story for 2023 winners Manchester City, who have eight points ahead of a trip to PSG on matchday seven and a home match against Club Brugge on the final day.

Who can confirm their status in the play-off round?

Juventus are the lowest-placed team (14th) who can confirm their status in the play-off round with a win this week. Every side above them will also, at minimum, qualify for the knockout play-offs with three points on matchday seven.

Should PSG or Stuttgart fail to win on matchday seven, a draw will be enough to advance Benfica, Monaco, Sporting, Feyenoord, and Club Bruges, who are placed between 16th and 19th. In this scenario, Madrid, Celtic, City, PSV and Dinamo Zagreb can also confirm progression with a win.

Who can be eliminated?

RB Leipzig, Slovan Bratislava, and Young Boys became the first sides to be eliminated on matchday six, and they will likely have some company by the end of the penultimate game week.

For Bologna (two points) to have any chance of avoiding elimination, the Serie A side must win both of their remaining matches. The herculean task starts with a home match against Dortmund on Tuesday, a side currently one point below the automatic round of 16 spots in ninth. It’s no surprise our projection model rates their chances of avoiding elimination at less than one per cent, given they are winless so far.

Salzburg, Sturm Graz, Girona, and Crvena Zvezda (three points) must also win their next match to avoid elimination. Like Bologna, our projection table rates Salzburg, Sturm Graz, and Girona’s chances of avoiding elimination at under one per cent but it gives Crvena Zvezda a glimmer of hope at three per cent). This is due to Crvena Zvezda’s relatively kind fixture list, with PSV (23rd) and already eliminated Young Boys still to play.

If City, PSV, and Dinamo Zagreb all win, Sparta Prague and Shakhtar Donetsk, both on four points, will be eliminated irrespective of their results on matchday seven. In the same situation, PSG and Stuttgart require a draw in their next match to stay alive.

(Top photo: Pedro Castillo/Real Madrid via Getty Images)