Football betting tips: Thursday best bets
1pt A red card in Ajax vs Galatasaray at 4/1 (William Hill)
0.5pt Each team to get a red card in Ajax vs Galatasaray at 80/1 (William Hill)
1pt Galatasaray to win and Fernando Muslera to be carded at 16/1 (William Hill)
1pt Davinson Sanchez to be carded in Ajax vs Galatasaray at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Sanchez and Jorrel Hato to be carded at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Man Utd to win and Andre Onana to be carded at 12/1 (bet365)
1pt Barnabas Varga to score anytime in Ferencvaros vs AZ at 12/5 (Unibet)
1pt A red card in Midtjylland vs Fenerbahce at 9/2 (William Hill)
0.5pt Each team to get a red card in Midtjylland vs Fenerbahce at 90/1 (William Hill)
1pt Fenerbahce to win and Irfan Can Egribayat to be carded at 8/1 (William Hill)
1pt A red card in Tottenham vs Elfsborg at 11/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Each team to get a red card in Tottenham vs Elfsborg at 100/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, William Hill)
0.5pt Elfsborg to win and Isak Pettersson to be carded at 75/1 (William Hill)
1pt Elfsborg double chance and Isak Pettersson to be carded at 30/1 (William Hill)
1pt Besiktas to win and Mert Gunok to be carded at 20/1 (William Hill)
*All games kick off 20:00 GMT, Thursday
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair
Ajax vs Galatasaray
Jimmy ‘The Punt’ Cantrill
Jesus Gil Manzano takes charge of Ajax’s game with GALATASARAY.
The referee has averaged 7.5 cards a game this season, which includes five red cards. With both sides needing a result, things could get heated.
Backing a RED CARD in the match and A RED CARD EACH TEAM are the first couple of plays mainly because this referee has hit double-figure card tallies in four of 15 games this season.
I’ll also be coupling Galatasaray TO WIN with their keeper FERNANDO MUSLERA TO BE CARDED, he has 56 career cards and eight in 63 European appearances.
The player card market is worth a look where DAVINSON SANCHEZ is the standout price TO BE CARDED at 11/2.
Sanchez has seven bookings in 22 league and Europa League games this term and should be tasked with containing Brian Brobbey, a player drawing 2.3 fouls per game in this competition.
Combining Sanchez with JORREL HATO also appeals in a CARD DOUBLE at 19/1. The latter has three cards in six UEL appearances this season.
FCSB vs Manchester United
Jimmy ‘The Punt’ Cantrill
Tom has a full preview of the game with the stakes eloquently explained.
Although I am reluctant to side with inconsistent MANCHESTER UNITED the referee appointment is a good’un so I wanted to combine them with an ANDRE ONANA CARD.
Referee Harm Osmers has carded six keepers in 18 games this season (two in one game) and five have come in his last 11 appearances. In total, two were for arguments, three for time wasting and one was a straight red for Manuel Neuer for a last man foul.
There is a caveat to this one…
Altay Bayindir is likely to start ahead of Onana as United’s cup keeper. If he does, just swap the players round.
Ferencvaros vs AZ Alkmaar
Jake Osgathorpe
The equation is pretty simple for Ferencvaros: they have to win to guarantee themselves a play-off place. As for AZ, they will finish in the top 24, and could even sneak into the top eight, with a win here.
It should be an entertaining encounter in Hungary and the hosts’ striker BARNABAS VARGA is overpriced at 12/5 TO SCORE ANYTIME and add to his UEL tally of five.
The Hungarian side have won two of their three home games, losing only their first against a then-fully-fit Tottenham side.
They’ll fancy their chances of creating plenty against an AZ side winless away in their UEL campaign, and one who shipped two goals to already eliminated Ludogorets in their last road trip.
Varga is Ferencvaros’ main man, averaging 0.56 xG per 90 in this competition, so will be on the end of at least a couple of good opportunities in a game his side have to win.
Fresh off of a brace in their last home Europa match – one being a penalty which is also a plus for this bet – he’ll be looking to fire his side into the play-offs.
Midtjylland vs Fenerbahce
Jimmy ‘The Punt’ Cantrill
With both sides needing to win, the stakes could not be higher in Denmark – the jeopardy is palpable!
Midtjylland may have the fewest cards in the competition (7Y) but Fenerbahce have the most (26Y 2R); let’s hope the Turkish side can drag the hosts down to their level.
They’ve made a habit of it this season, with a total of 51 cards in Europa League games involving Fenerbahce – only one game has seen fewer than six and their opponents have been responsible for 41% of those cards.
There have been three red cards in games involving Jose Mourinho’s side, with two coming in the same game and with a card happy referee in charge on Thursday both A RED CARD IN THE MATCH and BOTH TEAMS TO GET A RED CARD are worth a look.
Luís Godinho may have only brandished one red this season but his 29 matches last season saw nine.
He also doesn’t mind a keeper card. In 18 games this term, seven keepers (two in one game) have had their name taken so naturally I will be coupling a FENERBAHCE WIN alongside their keeper IRFAN CAN EGRIBAYAT TO BE CARDED.
The stopper has 11 domestic cards in 82 appearances and one in five on the continent.
It is worth pointing out he is not Jose’s number one, that is Dominik Livakovic and he could return for Thursday’s match. If Livakovic is in between the sticks, I will be cashing the bet out given his stingy cards record.
Jimmy ‘The Punt’ Cantrill
Jake’s covered the preview for this game and I am along similar lines, so without going over old ground too much, here is what I am thinking.
Jake’s had a speculative punt on a shock result, as am I by taking ELFSBORG WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE and just TO WIN alongside their stopper ISAK PETTERSSON TO BE CARDED.
Original, I know but it is almost like the new format was tailor-made for punts like these.
For the shock result, see Jake’s preview for reasoning. For the keeper card, see the referee.
Sebastian Gishamer has carded keepers in each of his last three games, one coming in this competition and another in the Conference League, which is obviously pleasing.
This season alone he has dished out eight red cards in 13 appearances, last season’s count of five in 26 was still unusually large for context.
In six European appearances this term, Gishamer has flashed five red cards and given a red card to each team on two occasions. I don’t think I have ever seen the like.
There is a lot on the line here and although these sides are generally two of the better behaved in this competition, Elfsborg have picked up one red card and Tottenham have picked up two – their games have seen three in total as well.
Both A RED CARD IN THE MATCH and BOTH TEAMS TO GET A RED CARD are worth a tout.
Twente vs Besiktas
Jimmy ‘The Punt’ Cantrill
BESIKTAS need to win to secure a top 24 spot and their opponents FC Twente are also in danger of not reaching the next stage of the competition.
Only two points and one place separates the sides; I smell a keeper-card combination.
Visiting keeper MERT GUNOK has picked up three cards this season, he got four yellows and a red in the league last season and three in 30 European appearances.
All of his last three cards have come for arguments but he was carded in the 64th minute for time wasting at the Euros and should his side get their noses in front, the referee won’t stand for any housery.
Szymon Marciniak is the referee. He took charge of the 2022 World Cup final and has carded four keepers in 19 appearances this season.
Combining Gunok TO BE CARDED alongside BESIKTAS TO WIN is the bet.
Odds correct at 1000 GMT (30/01/25)
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1. Look for teams with strong home records – Home advantage can play a big role in European competitions, so look for teams that have a strong record when playing at home.
2. Check the recent form of both teams – Make sure to check the recent form of both teams before placing your bets. Teams in good form are more likely to perform well in their matches.
3. Consider the importance of the match – Some teams may prioritize certain competitions over others, so consider the importance of the match to each team before placing your bets.
4. Keep an eye on team news and injuries – Team news and injuries can have a big impact on the outcome of a match, so make sure to stay updated on any potential changes before placing your bets.
5. Look for value in the odds – Finally, always look for value in the odds. Don’t just bet on the favorites, but consider the potential payouts for underdogs as well.
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