Five reasons Michigan will not beat Alabama in the ReliaQuest Bowl

The Wolverines triumphed in last year’s College Football Playoff Semifinal matchup against the Alabama Crimson Tide. With the two teams facing each other for the second time in the calendar year in the ReliaQuest Bowl, the Tide are given a chance at redemption.

Here are five reasons Michigan won’t beat Alabama on New Year’s Eve.

Michigan’s already-finite offense is even more scarce

The storyline of Michigan’s 2024 season has been its lackluster offense. The Wolverines’ 133.6 passing yards per game is the fifth-lowest in FBS, and their 22.3 points per game is pretty uninspiring compared to Alabama’s 35.5.

Making matters worse, Michigan will be without key offensive players. Tight end Colston Loveland (NFL Draft) and wide receiver Tyler Morris (transfer portal) are both out. Michigan also will be without running backs Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings.

Even at full strength, Michigan’s offense is shaky. Taking away top receiving and rushing options makes it even more strenuous.

Jalen Milroe’s legs will be too much for Michigan to handle

Michigan’s defense has shown it’s capable of containing good quarterbacks, minimizing Ohio State quarterback Will Howard’s damage to 185 yards, for example. But almost the entirety of that yardage came from Howard’s passing abilities, not his legs. Facing Milroe, the Wolverines won’t have that luxury.

Milroe thrives both in the pocket and on his feet. In 2024, he averaged 221 passing yards and 42.5 rushing yards per game. Milroe has ran in 20 touchdowns and threw 15 more. His 35 touchdowns trumps Michigan’s 31 total touchdowns this season.

Milroe is about as versatile as it gets, and for Michigan’s defense, that will be insurmountable. The Wolverines might stop Milroe from running wild, and might stop Milroe from using his arm as a weapon, but they won’t be able to stop both.

The Rose Bowl rematch adds extra motivation

The final memory Milroe has from last season is a swarm of Michigan defenders blocking him from the end zone and pandemonium ensuing as the Wolverines celebrated their Rose Bowl victory. Milroe has the rare opportunity of facing Michigan for a second time in 2024, and he is undoubtedly looking for restitution. Sure, the ReliaQuest Bowl is a far cry from the Rose Bowl, but Milroe will look to end 2024 on a higher note than he started on.

According to Milroe, it’s about finishing the mission, and “the mission right now is to complete the season.” Between that and the sour taste of last season’s loss, there’s a lot of fuel for Alabama. An ultra-motivated Milroe makes a tough challenge even more arduous.

Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant’s absence will deflate the defense

Michigan’s biggest asset this season has been its defense, particularly its rush defense. With offenses averaging just 92.6 rushing yards per game against the Wolverines — the fourth-best in FBS — Michigan has stifled the run.

But the defensive line the Wolverines will have against Alabama won’t be the same one that dominated all season long. With defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant declaring for the NFL Draft and opting out of the bowl game, the line takes an insurmountable hit. Graham and Grant have been the cornerstone of Michigan’s defensive dominance, and their absence will give the Crimson Tide a huge advantage, especially for a team with an incredibly mobile quarterback like Milroe.

Alabama is fully loaded

The list of Michigan players opting out of the ReliaQuest bowl is lengthy, and it presents a major challenge for the Wolverines. Meanwhile, Alabama has all its draft-eligible players (that haven’t hit the transfer portal this month) ready to play, putting Michigan at an even bigger disadvantage.

Although Milroe is projected to enter the draft after this season, he isn’t opting out of this game. It remains to be seen if he will declare, but it’s crystal clear he will play in the ReliaQuest Bowl.