SUNDAY AM WRITETHRU: It’s bound to be one of the lowest overall grossing weekends of 2025 with around $70.2M for all movies, and there’s not even a snowstorm to blame.

That’s how this part of the calendar typically swings at the box office. A year ago at this time, all titles counted $54.5M per Box Office Mojo, and that was the second worst weekend of 2024. For all the blah blah from distribution heads that moviegoing can be a 52 weekend business, there are just some dead zones on the calendar. Today, it’s a run-up to the Super Bowl with Commanders vs. Eagles and Bills vs. Chiefs, so don’t expect any guys to go to the movies. Hopefully this weekend doesn’t come in lower than what we are seeing here.

Still where others see pitfalls, Lionsgate sees opportunity, so good on them once again for programming a wide release where there wasn’t any with the Mel Gibson directed, Mark Wahlberg starring Flight Risk which will notch the studio their second No 1 opening of the year with $12M. It’s also the studio’s second after Den of Thieves 2: Pantera since Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes run at No. 1 in November-early December 2023. Once again in 2025, Lionsgate has opened a movie to the top of tracking (Lionsgate, your rivals saw this at $12M, OK?).

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Despite the No. 1 opening here for Wahlberg, and 2x Oscar winner Gibson (the filmmaker’s third No. 1 opening after Passion of the Christ and Apocalypto), the whole movie feels like a non-event, despite the trailer hook of “Mayday, Mayday, the pilot is a hitman” and that’s because we’ve seen these plane in peril movies before. In fact, Michelle Dockery, who stars in Flight Risk, starred in one of these types of pics before back in their heyday, and that was 2014’s Liam Neeson Non-Stop which debuted to $28.8M ($92.1M domestic final).

Jodie Foster’s 2005 thriller Flightplan was another one with a $24.6M start ($89.7M final). Lionsgate opened Plane two Januarys ago to $10.2M. This is just where this plane genre lives, and audiences have seen it before. Flight Risk was originally set for October 2024.

There’s also something to be said about Wahlberg’s box office drawing power of late. Not counting the Tom Holland starring Sony Playstation franchise movie Uncharted ($44M), it’s been a while since the 2x Oscar-nominated actor has opened a movie to north of $20M on his own, a la 2016’s Deepwater Horizon ($20.2M) and 2014’s Lone Survivor ($37.8M). Flight Risk‘s opening here isn’t that far from his 2018 STX action movie Mile 22 which debuted to $13.7M, and it’s above his recent solo turns Arthur the King ($7.6M) and Father Stu ($5.4M). All of this said, Wahlberg was one of the primary reasons why moviegoers bought tickets to this at 32% in PostTrak exits. Anyone wondering why Lionsgate would release two dude action movies within two weeks of each other, know that Wahlberg pulls in more women. Flight Risk counts 46% women/54% men to Den of Thieves 2: Pantera‘s 37% women/63% men.

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One marketing source knocked Lionsgate on this movie that they only released two one-sheets and one trailer. However, the bean-counting, frugal studio isn’t going to overspend (P&A mid $20Ms) when they know the goods are limited. Forget about the fact that critics loathe Flight Risk calling it “dumb” or as San Francisco Chronicle‘s Bob Strauss whines “The equivalent of a suspenseful Spirit Airlines commercial…”, audiences aren’t really thrilled with this bumpy airflight through the mountains movie giving it a C CinemaScore, and 63% on Rotten Tomatoes audience meter.

RelishMix says that “negative leaning chatter on Flight Risk has viewers expressing the immense doubt they have in the project: ‘This movie is a tax writeoff.’ This trend continues as more fans predict a lack of success due to the business of the film, ‘Everyone knows January is where they send movies out to die and be forgotten.’” Social media universe analytics at 79M across TikTok, X, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube are 40% behind other action thrillers per RelishMix. Guy Ritchie’s action movie The Gentleman by comparison had a reach of 104M on social before its opening in January 2020, the pic opening to $10.6M (again another comp here for Flight Risk, that Ritchie movie ending with a $36.4M stateside result).

What’s unfortunate is that we typically expect more from Gibson as a director in terms of delivering unique epic features, not been there, done that thrillers, and his first directorial in nine years here is no Hacksaw Ridge. Maybe Lionsgate, which roams in the faith-based sector, can talk him into making another Biblical or New Testament feature. That red state sector would totally show up for Gibson (PostTrak exits said 16% went to see Flight Risk for Gibson as a filmmaker). Still, despite the low start here for Flight Risk, what’s clear is that these older-dude leaning (this one 45% over 25), cookie-cutter action movies, particularly with stars, still need theatrical to propel them through the home entertainment window. And that’s what Lionsgate counts on with these titles.

Lionsgate ran spots during sports programming, including a college football bowl game takeover on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day with on-air, in-program, and experiential elements, as well as spots in pre & post season NFL, NBA, and more. Of note, on social/digital there was a “Marks Go Free x Fandango” activation where Marks around the country redeemed 3,400 opening night tickets in just four hour.

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PLF screens are delivering 27% of the weekend for Flight Risk. The movie is playing the best in the South Central and West with the Harkins Estrella Falls 16 in Goodyear AZ the top grossing cinema in the nation with $13K so far.

Chart is updating.

6. Presence (NEON) 1,750 theaters, Fri $1.38M Sat $1.23M Sun $800K 3-day $3.4M/Wk 1

Audiences like the Steven Soderbergh ghost story just a little bit more than Flight Risk at C+. PostTrak audiences fell asleep at 58% with a 33% definite recommend. At this level, among Soderbergh’s wide openings (north of 1,000 theaters), it’s his lowest opening after Unsane at $3.8M. The movie was reportedly shot for $2M over 11 days. It’s not clear what NEON paid for the movie, but they gave it a push with Julia Fox realtor billboards. That said, for a small studio with an even lower overhead than Lionsgate, these economics are where they dwell, read the Sydney Sweeney horror movie Immaculate which opened to $5.3M and legged out to $15.6M was considered a very good result for them (C CinemaScore). Presence‘s opening his higher than NEON’s Cuckoo ($3M) and MUBI’s multi Oscar nominated genre movie The Substance ($3.2M opening, final domestic $16.8M), however, it’s not certain that Presence can pull off a 5x-plus multiple like Substance and Immaculate. Mostly men at 56%. Forty-one percent of moviegoers were 25-34 and 32% were over 35. Diversity demos were 53% Caucasian, 24% Hispanic/Latino, 11% Black, 9% Asian & 4% NatAm/Other. Best play for the Soderbergh movie is East, South Central and West with the AMC Burbank 30 the No. 1 domestic venue with $31K through Friday. Soderbergh has another movie coming out in Q1: Focus Features’ spy thriller Black Bag starring Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender on March 14.

6. Wolf Man (Uni) 3,354 theaters, Fri $900K (-79%) Sat $1.5M Sun $940K 3-day $3.4M (-69%), Total $17.8M/Wk 1

8. A Complete Unknown (Sea) 2,010 (-490) theaters, Fri $845K (-24%) Sat $1.4M Sun $855K 3-day $3.1M (-24%) Total $62.9M, Wk 5

9. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (LG) 2,108 (-900) theaters, Fri $835K Sat $1.5M Sun $665K 3-day $3M (-58%),Total $31.6M/Wk 3

10. The Brutalist (A24) 1,118 (+780) theaters, Fri $720K (+13%) Sat $1.2M Sun $943K 3-day $2.87M (+45%), Total $9.3M/Wk 6

Other:

Nosferatu (Focus) 1,973 (572) theaters, Fri $590K Sat $920K Sun $540K 3-day $2.05M (-51%) Total $93.2M/Wk 5
Robert Eggers vampire movie is $3.6M away from becoming Focus’ highest grossing movie ever at the domestic box office, surpassing 2019’s Downton Abbey at $96.2M.

Brave the Dark (ANG) 2,230 theaters, Fri $930K Sat $899K Sun $737K 3-day $2.56M/Wk 1
The Jared Harris drama from the faith-based studio gets an A CinemaScore. PostTrak is great at 86% and 66% definite recommend, but the faithful aren’t going. Turnout is 47% men, 53% women, 74% of the audience 35+ years old with the largest quad being 55+ at 37%. Diversity demos are 66% White, 15% Latino/Hispanic, 6% Black, 7% Asian & 6% NatAm/Other. Highest grossing venue for the pic in the country? The Penn Cinema in Lititz PA with $25K so far.

UPDATED, Friday midday: Lionsgate is looking at its second No. 1 opening of 2025 with the Mel Gibson-directed and Mark Wahlberg-starring Flight Risk, which is grossing $4 million-$4.5 million today and eyeing an opening that’s plus or minus $11M. Remember, it’s a big NFL weekend, so hopefully that doesn’t slide tackle the projections we’re seeing here.

The movie cost in the mid-$20M range, with Lionsgate funding two-thirds of that with foreign sales. P&A is around mid-$20Ms as well. Flight Risk is booked at 3,161 theaters.

In second today is the sixth weekend of Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King at 3,420 sites with a $1.65M Friday and $7.4M 3-day, off 39%, for a running total of $219.7M.

Third belongs to Sony’s second frame of its R-rated SZE and Keke Palmer comedy One of Them Days at 2,675 theaters, with $2.1M Friday, $7M 3-day, off 41%, and a 10-day by Sunday EOD with $24.3M.

Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 at 3,097 theaters is seeing a sixth Friday of $950,000, 3-day of $4.4M, -49%, and a running cume of $225M.

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Fifth is a fight between Neon’s Steven Soderbergh-directed Presence and Universal’s Wolf Man for around $3M. Presence is looking at around $1.4M today at 1,730 locations, whereas as the Blumhouse horror film is defanging at -72% for a running cume by Sunday of $17.4M.

Angel Studios’ Brave the Dark at 2,230 sites is seeing around $1M today and a $2.4M opening.

PREVIOUSLY, Friday AM: Lionsgate’s release of Mel Gibson’s Flight Risk starring Mark Wahlberg made in $950,000 in previews Thursday night. The last time Gibson directed was nine years ago, for the two-time Oscar-winning World War II movie Hacksaw Ridge, also from Lionsgate. It’s not clear yet whether Flight Risk will win the weekend — tracking is saying $9M-$11M — but if it does, it will rep the second No. 1 finish this month for Lionsgate joining Den of Thieves 2: Pantera, a feat the studio hasn’t pulled off since November 2023’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes.

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Flight Risk is booked at 3,100 theaters, of which 660 are Premium Large Format screens and 273 Motion seat screens (4DX, DBOX, MX4D). Reviews for Flight Risk are 25% on Rotten Tomatoes; Den of Thieves 2 stood at 60% with critics on RT, and that landed Lionsgate a No. 1 win with $15M.

Tracking service Quorum spots some of the gas leaking on Flight Risk: Unaided awareness has stalled at 4%, which is never a good sign in a pic’s final week, with interest slipping from 55% to 51%. Flight Risk was 3 stars with Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak audiences last night at 72% positive. Men at 58% and an overall audience at 80% over 25 showed up.

Headwinds Flight Risk will fly into this weekend include two NFL conference championship games. If Flight Risk nose-dives, it’s at the paws of Disney’s Mufasa; The Lion King, which is heading into its sixth weekend with an eye at $8M-$9M. Mufasa won its fifth week with $18M (-4%) and has a running cume of $212.3M. The added bonus for Mufasa: It’s not on PVOD, and it’s purely theatrical. Exhibitors are rewarding Disney with those window terms this weekend with solid screen holds.

Neon’s drone-shot ghost thriller Presence from Steven Soderbergh, which it took the world on a year ago after the pic’s Sundance premiere, is eyeing a $2M-$3M opening at 1,750 theaters. Previews were $385K. In its pure Thursday night previews alone, as a comp, Mubi’s The Substance in September did $327K before opening to $3.2M. Presence is 89% certified fresh with critics, and 2 stars with last night’s PostTrak audience, who were 61% men, 73% over the age of 25.

Neon beat out 10 other bidders at the festival for Presence a year ago, the deal at the time coming 35 years after Soderbergh’s $1 million Sundance deal for his career splash sex, lies, & videotape and subsequent Palme d’Or win at Cannes. In Presence, a family moves into a suburban house and becomes convinced they are not alone. A supernatural force has infiltrated the house and takes a specific interest in the couple’s daughter. Lucy Liu stars with Chris Sullivan, Callina Liang, Julia Fox, Eddy Maday and West Mulholland.

Angel Studios has the Damian Harris-directed, Jared Harris-starring Brave the Dark, which also looks to do in the single digits at 2,200 sites. Previews were $200K last night, per sources. PostTrak exits are 4 1/2 stars with a 62% definite recommend for the turnout, which leaned 51% female and 63% over 45 turnout. Mad Men‘s Harris plays Mr. Deen, who discovers one of his students, Nate, has been living out of his car and thrown into jail. Mr. Deen decides to bail him out, determined to curb Nate’s self-destructive behavior, but quickly discovers a host of dark secrets that are slowly tearing Nate apart. What started as a good deed becomes a desperate fight to save Nate from his own demons.

Second for the week was Sony’s R-rated Keke Palmer-SZE comedy One of Them Days with $17M after a $938K Thursday, -6% from Wednesday. The movie could ease around 40% in its second weekend. Third for the week was Universal/Blumhouse’s Wolf Man, which did not delight with $14.4M in week one at 3,354 sites. Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $12.7M (-11%), good for a running total of $220.5M; the pic is currently on digital PVOD. Fifth for the week is Den of Thieves 2 with $9.2M (-53%) at 3,008 sites and a running total of $28.8M.

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