Free Agent Profile: Charlie Morton

The 2024-25 offseason has seen starting pitchers enjoy a hot market practically from the start of the winter, and virtually every starter has signed a deal that surpassed expectations this winter. That’s led to a run on starters all throughout the winter, and as the 2025 calendar year begins just four starting pitchers who MLBTR predicted to land multi-year deals this winter remain on the market: Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta, Jose Quintana, and Andrew Heaney. With a number of clubs still hoping to add starting pitching help this winter, that means several teams are going to have to turn towards one-year deals in order to add to their rotation.

The list of players who figure to be available in that corner of the market is wide-ranging, with solid but unspectacular veterans like Kyle Gibson and Martín Pérez as well as players hoping to rebound from down or injured seasons like Michael Lorenzen and Spencer Turnbull. One particularly unique group of pitchers available on one-year deals is a handful of aging veterans who have long been among the better starters in baseball but either can’t garner or aren’t interested in making multi-year commitments at this point in their careers. Former Cy Young award winners Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander all fall into this category, but the best of the group in 2024 was actually 41-year-old right-hander Charlie Morton.

Unlike the aforementioned trio, Morton isn’t a future Hall of Famer. He didn’t make his big league debut until he was 24 years old and didn’t fully break out as a front-end starter until his age-33 season, which came with the Astros back in 2017. Since then, however, Morton has been among the better pitchers in the sport. He’s grown into one of the more durable starters in the sport with more than 1200 innings of work over the past eight seasons, good for eighth in the majors. Among starters with at least 1000 innings of work during that time, Morton’s 3.64 ERA and near-matching 3.63 FIP rank ninth, while his fantastic 27.4% strikeout rate ranks sixth behind only Scherzer, Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Yu Darvish, and Blake Snell.

That steady, reliable production would have made Morton an attractive free agent for a number of clubs in recent years, but his last foray into free agency was back in the 2020-21 offseason, when he limited his market to just Atlanta and Tampa Bay in an effort to remain close to his family. Since then, he’s signed successive short-term extensions with the Braves in order to remain in Atlanta. In four years as a member of the Braves, Morton pitched to a 3.87 ERA (110 ERA+) with a 3.92 FIP in 686 1/3 innings of work, positioning himself as a durable mid-rotation arm.

There’s been some variance in Morton’s work with Atlanta, as he posted top-of-the-rotation caliber results in 2021 and ’23 but was closer to league average in 2022 and ’24. Even in those down years, though, Morton’s durability made him a quality rotation option not unlike Gibson. With the floor of a sturdy, back-of-the-rotation veteran and the ceiling of a playoff-caliber starter, Morton stands out among the remaining starters available as something like the best of both worlds; he’s been as durable over the years as a veteran like Gibson or Patrick Corbin, but with recent success that easily clears those more reliable arms.

While even Morton’s best years pale in comparison to what the aforementioned trio of aging aces looked like at their peak, Morton’s numbers after the past two years are actually very similar to Scherzer’s on a rate basis: Scherzer has posted a 3.81 ERA (109 ERA+) with a 4.29 FIP since the start of the 2023 season, while Morton has posted a 3.92 ERA (108 ERA+) with a 4.17 FIP over the same time frame. Scherzer’s 26.8% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate are better than Morton’s 24.7% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate, but Morton benefits from a much higher groundball rate and of course has nearly double Scherzer’s volume over the past two years.

While betting on a pitcher who’s already celebrated his 41st birthday will always come with risk, Morton’s impressive durability and consistent track record of success make him one of the most intriguing mixes of upside and stability still available in free agency at this point. With that said, it doesn’t appear that the veteran has fully decided whether or not he’ll return to the mound at all for 2025. Morton has frequently considered hanging up the glove to join his family at their home in Florida, and while initial reports indicated his intention to pitch in 2025, Morton’s plans seemingly remain up in the air as he would likely wind up somewhere other than Atlanta for the coming season.

Reportedly, Morton’s preference is to pitch for a team that hosts their Spring Training in Florida so he can stay close to home for more of the season. Aside from the Braves and Rays, the Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Astros, Blue Jays, Marlins, Twins, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Pirates, Cardinals, and Nationals all play in the Grapefruit League during the spring. The majority of those teams are either facing significant payroll constraints or unlikely to add rotation help this winter, but the Orioles, Astros, Tigers, and Mets could all be speculative potential destinations for the right-hander should he wind up departing Atlanta.