Global winners and losers of Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs

An employee stands at a blast furnace. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he would impose new tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.

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U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday told reporters that he planned to announce new 25% tariffs on Monday, targeting imports of steel and aluminum.

The proposed levies would be in addition to existing duties and no timeline for implementation was specified.

The two metals are vital components in various industries, including transportation, construction, and packaging.

Here’s a look at the biggest potential winners and losers if Trump goes ahead with his 25% steel and aluminum tariffs.

The United States

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the biggest winner of the trade tariffs is likely to be the U.S.

U.S. steel imports have declined substantially over the past decade, official data shows, falling 35% between 2014 and 2024 — despite a 2.5% annual uptick to 26.2 million metric tons last year. Many attribute this to tariffs introduced under President Trump’s first administration.

America’s aluminum imports, however, have risen 14% over the past decade, with U.S. exports of the metal rising progressively since 2020.

On Monday, James Campbell, analyst at commodity pricing consultancy CRU, told CNBC that he expected the potential tariffs to have varying effects on the U.S. over time.

“At the start, this could damage demand,” he said. “In the longer term, we can see investment coming through.”

Since Trump’s first wave of tariffs in 2018, CRU’s Campbell said the U.S. had seen investment rise in both the steel and aluminum sectors.

During his first presidency, Trump slapped tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, Mexico and the EU. His administration also placed volume limits on imports from various other nations, including South Korea, Argentina and Australia.

A later report from the Congressional Research Service found that in the first five months of the policy, the Trump administration collected more than $1.4 billion in revenue.

Canada and Mexico

The two countries are among the biggest exporters of steel and aluminum to the United States, so are likely to be hurt by the tariffs if they come into effect — even after being granted temporary respite from blanket duties on all their exports into America.

Germany

Germany is also a big steel exporter to the U.S. and is likely to be negatively affected by the tariffs.

However, Thyssenkrupp, one of Europe’s largest steelmakers, told CNBC Monday it expects “very limited impact” on its business if the U.S. levies additional tariffs on steel and aluminum.

The German company said Europe remains its primary market for steel with only “high-quality” niche products exported to the U.S. where it maintains a “good market position”.

“The majority of thyssenkrupp’s sales in the U.S. come from the trading business and the automotive supply business,” a spokesperson said via email. “In principle, Thyssenkrupp is well positioned in these businesses in the US with a significant share of local manufacturing for the local market. Much of the production for U.S. customers takes place within the U.S..”

Asian exporters

South Korea, Vietnam and Japan are also among the countries likely to see their metals hit with new import tariffs if Trump goes ahead with the policy.  

Imports from Vietnam grew by more than 140% from the previous year, according to CNBC’s analysis of U.S. trade data. Taiwan also exported 75% more steel to the U.S. in 2024 compared to the previous year.

This developing story is being updated.

Global Winners and Losers of Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports has sparked a global debate on the potential winners and losers of this controversial move. While the tariffs are aimed at boosting domestic production and protecting American jobs, they have also raised concerns about a possible trade war and its impact on the global economy.

So who are the winners and losers in this scenario?

Winners:
1. U.S. Steel and Aluminum Industries: The most obvious winners of the tariffs are the U.S. steel and aluminum industries, which stand to benefit from increased demand for domestic products.
2. Domestic Producers in Countries Exempted from Tariffs: Countries like Canada, Mexico, and Australia, which have been exempted from the tariffs, may see increased demand for their steel and aluminum products in the U.S. market.
3. Recyclers and Secondary Producers: With the increased cost of imported steel and aluminum, recyclers and secondary producers may find it more cost-effective to use scrap materials to produce new products.

Losers:
1. U.S. Businesses Dependent on Imported Steel and Aluminum: Industries that rely heavily on imported steel and aluminum, such as automakers and construction companies, may face higher production costs and reduced competitiveness in the global market.
2. Consumers: Higher prices for steel and aluminum products could lead to increased costs for consumers, affecting a wide range of industries from automobiles to canned goods.
3. Global Trade Relations: The tariffs have already sparked concerns about a potential trade war, with countries like China and the EU threatening retaliation. This could lead to higher tariffs on U.S. exports and disrupt global trade relations.

In conclusion, while the tariffs may benefit certain domestic industries, they also have the potential to harm U.S. businesses and consumers, as well as disrupt global trade relations. The long-term impacts of this move remain uncertain, but it is clear that the global economy is likely to see both winners and losers as a result of Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs.

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