Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Saint Mary’s Gaels Prediction, Odds and Picks

In the biggest game the West Coast Conference will see all year, the Gonzaga Bulldogs will visit Moraga to face the Saint Mary’s Gaels. This matchup has become one of the best rivalries in all of college basketball (my personal favorite rivalry), and these teams have been evenly matched as of late. In the last 2 seasons, the Gaels and Bulldogs have split the season series (both 3-3), and this year looks to be no different. Gonzaga was able to leave Moraga with a win a year ago, and they could very well do that again this season.

This matchup always provides a clash of styles, as Gonzaga loves to push in transition to create easy baskets, but Saint Mary’s is always looking to keep games in the halfcourt to assert their physical brand of basketball. Saint Mary’s is typically able to slow the pace down in this matchup, as all 3 meetings a year ago were played at 63 possessions or less. While this could be viewed as favorable to the Gaels, the Bulldogs are not just a transition reliant offense and can score in the halfcourt at an efficient rate. The Bulldogs rank in the just the 11th percentile in offensive possession rate in the halfcourt, but they are in the 99th percentile on a points per possession basis, per Synergy. The Bulldogs’ offensive success in the halfcourt comes from their elite post-up game, led by Graham Ike (17.3 ppg), and he can have success in this game against the 1-on-1 post up coverage of Saint Mary’s, who hasn’t necessarily been tested in that area this season.

The offense has never been the issue for the Mark Few led Bulldogs, but the defense has been a different story this year. Gonzaga is just 54th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and their inside the arc defense has been especially poor (177th in 2-point FG% defense). However, coach Few has addressed the defensive woes by switching up the rotations over the last 2 games. The addition of Tarleton State transfer Emmanuel Innocenti into the starting lineup has done wonders for Gonzaga’s point of attack defense, and in turn has taken the pressure off the lack of true rim protection the Bulldogs have. For a reference point, Gonzaga was able to hold Oregon State to a 15-34 shooting clip inside the arc (47%) in their last contest after allowing a 25-39 shooting clip (64%) against the same Beavers team in a road loss. Innocenti has made a real difference since being inserted into the starting lineup, and he will be important in this game when it comes to containing the reigning WCC player of the year in Augustas Marciulionis. Gonzaga’s 2-way rebounding ability will also be key against a Gaels team that creates much of their value in this area.

In what should be an exciting matchup, I am looking to back the Bulldogs as a small road underdog. The talent level of Gonzaga’s perimeter, their rebounding ability, and their improved defense leads me to believe this is a great set up for the Bulldogs.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s prediction: Gonzaga +1 (-110) at time of publishing, playable at that number

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