How Worried Should We Be About a Resurgence of Once-Common Childhood Diseases?

After years of holding steady, American vaccination rates against once-common childhood diseases have been dropping.

Take a look at the graph above showing the share of United States kindergartners vaccinated against measles, polio and whooping cough since 2011-12.

What do you notice? What do you wonder?

What’s your reaction to the graph? How concerned are you about the declining rates of vaccination for kindergartners in the U.S.?

In “Childhood Vaccination Rates Were Falling Even Before the Rise of R.F.K. Jr.,” Francesca Paris writes:

Nationwide, the rate of kindergartners with complete records for the measles vaccine declined from around 95 percent before the pandemic to under 93 percent last year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Immunization rates against polio, whooping cough and chickenpox fell similarly.

Average rates remain high, but those national figures mask far more precipitous drops in some states, counties and school districts.

In those areas, falling vaccination rates are creating new pockets of students no longer protected by herd immunity, the range considered high enough to stop an outbreak. For a community, an outbreak can be extremely disruptive. For children, measles and other once-common childhood diseases can lead to hospitalization and life-threatening complications.

Immunization rates fell in most states early in the pandemic, and continued to fall in the years that followed.

States, not the federal government, create and enforce their own vaccine mandates, but the incoming Trump administration could encourage anti-vaccine sentiment and undermine state programs. The president-elect’s nominee for health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has spread the false theory that vaccines cause autism, among other misinformation.

The article, published earlier this month, explores why vaccine rates have been falling:

As the pandemic strained trust in the country’s public health system, more families of kindergartners formally opted out of routine vaccines, citing medical, philosophical or religious reasons. Others simply didn’t submit proof of a complete vaccination series, for any number of reasons, falling into noncompliance.

The shifts in exemptions mostly fall along political lines. In states that supported Mr. Trump for president in November, the number of students with official exemptions have increased on average (rising everywhere but West Virginia). Exemption rates rose in a few states that supported Vice President Kamala Harris — including Oregon, New Jersey and Minnesota — but stayed relatively flat or fell in most.

It continues:

Surveys reveal a new and deep partisan division on this issue. In 2019, 67 percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners told Gallup that childhood immunizations were “extremely important,” compared with 52 percent of their Republican counterparts. Five years later, the enthusiasm among the Democratic grouping had fallen slightly to 63 percent. For Republicans and G.O.P. leaners it had plunged to 26 percent.

Today, 31 percent of Republicans say “vaccines are more dangerous than the diseases they were designed to protect.” Just 5 percent of Democrats say the same.

“There seems to be a divide in terms of people’s feelings about science and skepticism towards the government,” said Dr. Natasha Bagdasarian, chief medical executive for Michigan. “I think some of those divisions are becoming apparent in vaccination rates.”

Students, read the entire article and then tell us:

• What’s your reaction to the declining rates of vaccination for kindergartners in the U.S.? How worried should we be about a resurgence of once-common childhood diseases?

• Look at the various graphs in the article showing changes in vaccination rates by state. What did you notice about the rates where you live? Were you surprised by the findings? What might the health effects be for you and your peers?

• While most states have laws requiring students to be vaccinated, more families of kindergartners are formally opting out of routine vaccines, citing medical, philosophical or religious reasons. Should states allow parents to choose if their children are vaccinated, or should all exemptions be eliminated? How do you think schools should handle children who are unvaccinated?

• The article notes that the vaccination declines began with the Covid-19 pandemic, which helped to erode the American public’s trust in public health experts. How did the pandemic affect your awareness and perception of vaccines and their role and impact on society? Why do you think vaccinations have become such a politicized issue today?

• President Trump’s nominee for health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has spread the false theory that vaccines cause autism, among other misinformation. States, not the federal government, create and enforce their own vaccine mandates, but how do you think the Trump administration might affect the growing anti-vaccine sentiment in the country?

• Have you ever seen anti-vaccine propaganda and vaccine misinformation online? What should be done to address vaccine and health misinformation and falsehoods?

• The Times has written extensively on vaccines and the dangerous implications of growing vaccine skepticism, such as “Six Childhood Scourges We’ve Forgotten About, Thanks to Vaccines,” “Are Childhood Vaccines ‘Overloading’ the Immune System? No.” and “Even Adults May Soon Be Vulnerable to ‘Childhood’ Diseases.” Read one or more of these related articles, and then tell us what new information or perspectives you gained, and what questions you still have about vaccines and childhood diseases.

Students 13 and older in the United States and Britain, and 16 and older elsewhere, are invited to comment. All comments are moderated by the Learning Network staff, but please keep in mind that once your comment is accepted, it will be made public and may appear in print.

Find more Student Opinion questions here. Teachers, check out this guide to learn how you can incorporate these prompts into your classroom.