Is Mizzou’s Caleb Grill the nation’s best shooter?

COLUMBIA, Mo. — Flipping a coin and it coming up heads. Rolling a die and getting an even number. Caleb Grill shooting from behind the 3-point line and making it. All three things have, more or less, a 50% chance of happening.

For the sake of accuracy, a Grill 3-pointer going in has a little bit less than a 50% chance of happening: He’s made 43 of his 89 shots from beyond the arc this season, which is a 48.3% clip.

But that’s about the only way you can minimize what Grill, the Missouri guard who leads the nation in 3-point shooting this season, is up to.

He now has a claim to the title of best shooter in men’s college hoops.

The No. 20 Tigers (16-4, 5-2 Southeastern Conference) are happy that they have a super-sub who heats up like a Weber and doesn’t put up any Big Green Eggs in the scoring column. MU coach Dennis Gates takes pleasure in the fact that his first substitution in most games means he’s bringing the Grill to the party.

“I’m just thankful he’s representing us and we’re not playing against a kid like that,” Gates said.

Grill is in the midst of a remarkable comeback season after losing most of the 2023-24 campaign to a wrist injury. After transferring from Iowa State, the guard’s jumper had yet to settle into a groove, and then a tumble to the floor on a dunk led to wrist surgery and a rollercoaster of a recovery.

For at least a few moments, it looked like Grill might lose this season, too — he was stretchered off the court during a November game and spent the next month out of commission while wearing a neck brace on the bench.

But those injuries aren’t the defining tones of his season, which has mostly involved swishing and splashing 3-pointers.

Major stats sites now list Grill atop the Division I standings in 3-point shooting with that 48.3% mark. Some players, of course, have higher rates but far less volume than Grill. Take Mizzou center Josh Gray, for example, who’s shooting 100% from 3 because he has taken and made exactly one shot from deep.

Grill shoots 5.9 3-pointers a game, which is heavy but not outlandish volume — exactly 200 players in the nation take more. Yet there are only 50 players who make more than his 2.9 per game — it’s the efficiency that makes Grill stand out.

So in that sense, it’s establishing a requisite sample size that really determines whether Grill is the nation’s best 3-point shooter. KenPom sets the bar at playing 40% of a team’s minutes and taking two shots a game. With that generous threshold, 11 players qualify ahead of Grill as better 3-point shooters.

Construct a stricter filter for shooting — like taking 15 3s per 100 on-court possessions, and Grill is back at the top. Those who shoot as often as he does just don’t make their 3s at the same rate.

There’s an analytics argument in Grill’s favor, too. It centers around a statistic called true shooting percentage, or TS% for short.

True shooting percentage is meant to be better than basketball’s slash line of field goal percentage, 3-point percentage and free-throw percentage by folding them into one number. The formula is more complex than is worth explaining here, but it accounts for shots from the field and free throws to, in theory, determine which players are the most efficient shooters.

Grill is fourth in the country in true shooting percentage, at 72.3%. Still, you can make an argument that his sitting fourth proves he’s actually the best.

For all of its benevolent intent, TS% tends to favor big men who take high-percentage shots at the rim and make their free throws — the stat doesn’t account for the value difference between a made layup and a made 3.

Of the top 15 active NBA players in true shooting, only two are guards — the Golden State Warriors’ Steph Curry and James Harden, currently of the Los Angeles Clippers. The other 13 are forwards and centers.

In college this season, the three players ahead of Grill in true shooting are all bigs: Wichita State’s Quincy Ballard, Louisiana Tech’s Daniel Batcho and UMass Lowell’s Max Brooks. Collectively, that trio has attempted six 3-pointers this season — zero, two and four respectively.

Grill has attempted more than six 3s in a game seven times this season. For him to compete in an efficiency metric with players relying on far “easier” shots is impressive — no other player who relies on shooting more than finishing is better than Grill in true shooting percentage.

His shot-making matters a whole lot to a Missouri team on a path to a solid finish in the hypertalented SEC and a bid in the NCAA Tournament. Just look at Grill’s 8-10 outing from 3-point land against Eastern Washington or the 25 points he scored on 5-of-9 shooting over the weekend to sink Mississippi.

Gates credits Grill’s 3-point prowess to the veteran guard’s ability to move around the floor without the ball, his teammates’ ability to feed him the ball and a quick release that makes beating closeouts a routine act.

“Now, let’s take nothing away from Caleb Grill,” Gates said. “His talent is his talent. But his toughness — he has a mental toughness about him, a belief and confidence about him that resonates no matter the situation.”

And whether Grill is the best shooter in the nation or merely very close to earning that title, he’s not just a shooter for the Tigers either. Look at his 3.4 rebounds per game and 1.5 steals per game, for example.

“His game isn’t just on the offensive end,” Gates said. “He rebounds, he gets extra basketball opportunities, he throws his body around and he’s just as physical as he is from his position. … He’s a talented young man, and I’m thankful he’s in our lives.”