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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Map and Update, December, 30, 2024
Key Takeaways from the ISW:
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Russia’s demand that Ukraine renounce its right to sovereignty and territorial integrity as a precondition to start peace talks, indicating that Russia is not interested in good faith negotiations.
- The Kremlin appears to be prioritizing Russia’s force generation requirements and domestic political stability over efforts to mitigate economic pressure and labor shortages going into 2025.
- US President Joe Biden announced an additional military aid package for Ukraine worth $2.5 billion on December 30.
- Russia and Ukraine conducted one of the largest prisoners of war (POW) exchanges in 2024 on December 30, resulting in the return of 189 Ukrainian POWs – some of whom spent over two years in Russian captivity since early 2022.
- Russia and Ukraine conducted one of the largest prisoners of war (POW) exchanges in 2024 on December 30, resulting in the return of 189 Ukrainian POWs – some of whom spent over two years in Russian captivity since early 2022.
- Russian border guards withdrew from the Agarak border checkpoint on the Armenia-Iran border on December 30 after controlling the checkpoint for over 30 years.
- Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka.
- A Russian milblogger who focuses on Russian veteran issues claimed that Russian forces have significantly strengthened the Russian international border with Ukraine since 2022 and no longer overwhelmingly rely on conscripts and alleged deserters as border security.
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Authors: Christina Harward, Davit Gasparyan, Angelica Evans, Nate Trotter, and Frederick W. Kagan.
See the original here.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has released its latest assessment of the Russian offensive campaign in Ukraine. As of December 30, 2024, the situation on the ground remains fluid, with both sides engaging in fierce fighting across multiple fronts.
According to ISW’s latest map, Russian forces have made significant advances in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, including the capture of several key cities and strategic points. Ukrainian forces, however, have managed to hold their ground in some areas and have launched counteroffensives to push back the Russian forces.
ISW’s assessment highlights the continued use of heavy artillery, airstrikes, and ground forces by both sides, resulting in significant civilian casualties and displacement. The humanitarian situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate, with reports of shortages of food, water, and medical supplies in many areas.
ISW warns that the conflict is likely to escalate further in the coming weeks, with the potential for more intense fighting and a higher number of casualties. The international community has called for a ceasefire and diplomatic solution to the conflict, but so far, both Russia and Ukraine have shown no signs of backing down.
Stay tuned for more updates on the Russian offensive campaign in Ukraine as the situation continues to develop.
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