Jake Osgathorpe’s Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 22

• Jake’s Predictions: Staked 283.25pts | Returned 309.58pts | P/L +26.33pts | ROI 9%

Football betting tips: Premier League

1pt Jordan Pickford to be carded in Everton vs Spurs (14:00) at 13/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt Brighton to win Draw no Bet vs Man Utd (14:00) at 29/20 (Unibet)

1pt Nikola Milenkovic to score anytime in N Forest vs Southampton (14:00) at 8/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Unibet)

0.5pt Nikola Milenkovic to score first in N Forest vs Southampton (14:00) at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1.5pts Savinho 1+ shot on target and 2+ total shots in Ipswich vs Man City (16:30) at 10/11 (Sky Bet)

It was a profitable midweek for us but it could, and arguably should, have been a big one.

Somehow Alexis Mac Allister avoided a card despite committing four fouls at Forest, with a couple being egregious, denying us the 3/1 single and the 15/1 double.

Still, profit is profit, and hopefully we’ll be able to follow it up this weekend with another weekend in the green.

Everton vs Tottenham

Tottenham are in a real rut. They look tired; struggling to deal with a crazy schedule, hurt even more by key injuries.

Ange Postecoglou’s side have won one of their last nine league games, with that sole victory coming at bottom side Southampton. Away from home they have won just two of their last 10 in all competitions, losing six.

So, I won’t be making a pro-Spurs bet, especially with their attacking output dropping of late, but at the same time, I can’t really make a pro-Everton play either.

The Toffees are one of the worst attacking teams in the league according to expected goals, and only Southampton (13) have scored fewer than the have (15).

Defensively, Everton have been solid at Goodison Park this season, conceding just five times in their last eight in the league, and with David Moyes very much in the same tactical camp as Sean Dyche, we should expect a continued defence-first approach.

So, with goals at a premium, the no goalscorer looks a real runner at 14/1, but instead, if things get tight we could well see JORDAN PICKFORD up to his usual antics resulting in him TO BE CARDED.

The England stopper has been carded five times this season but has collected four in his last six league games, all coming against either big teams or sides flying high.

He’s been booked three times for dissent and twice for time wasting, so at 13/2, Pickford could be a real runner in what should be a tight game of huge importance for both sides.

Score prediction: Everton 1-0 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Manchester United vs Brighton

Manchester United were extremely poor in midweek against the worst team in the top flight. Amad Diallo spared their blushes with a late hat-trick, but it was another performance that highlighted just how much work is needed to get the Red Devils climbing the table.

Their price of 11/10 does not appeal whatsoever, and given BRIGHTON‘s record against the best teams, I’ll more than happily back the visitors in the DRAW NO BET market.

We’ll take the them with that added security of money back if there is a draw, given the Seagulls have drawn the most games in the entire league (10).

Fabian Hurzeler’s side have lost only four times in 21, all to teams I would argue are better than United (Liverpool, Chelsea, Fulham, Crystal Palace).

Brighton have won four and drawn three of their nine matches against last season’s top eight, highlighting how games against the so called big sides suit them, and it really wouldn’t be a surprise were they to be the sixth side to beat United at Old Trafford this season.

Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Nottingham Forest vs Southampton

One of Southampton’s many weaknesses just happens to be a huge strength of Nottingham Forest – set-pieces.

Saints have conceded the most shots (102) and most xG (11.68) of any team in the league from dead-ball situations, conceding 11 times, while Forest have scored seven times from such scenarios and have racked up the third most xG from dead-ball situations.

So, we’ll back NIKOLA MILENKOVIC TO SCORE FIRST and TO SCORE ANYTIME at 25/1 and 8/1 respectively. I was going to include Murillo as well but Joe Townsend beat me to it…

Milenkovic is the second most dangerous centre-back from set-pieces in the entire league, behind only Gabriel, averaging 0.14 xG per 90 this season.

The Serb has scored twice this season already, netting the first of the game with one of those strikes, and caused Southampton some major issues in the reverse fixture, taking three shots equating to 0.98 xG.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Ipswich vs Manchester City

Manchester City are still shaky defensively, that is for certain, but going forward they are starting to find their groove again. Things are beginning to click.

SAVINHO has had a part to play in that. His performances whenever he has started have been a rare shining light in a tough season for the champions, and his consistency with shots and shots on target looks an avenue we can exploit here.

In his last 11 league starts for City, the Brazilian has fired 36 shots at an average of 3.56 per 90, hitting the target 14 times at an average of 1.38.

So, the 10/11 on offer for SAVINHO 1+ SHOT ON TARGET AND 2+ TOTAL SHOTS makes great appeal against an Ipswich side who will be happy to sit back and soak up pressure and shots on Sunday. The same bet is as short as 8/13 with most firms.

He seems to be growing in confidence and Pep Guardiola is sticking with him, picking him in the starting XI the last four league games.

This bet would have won in 10 of his 11 starts, and the Tractor Boys have have conceded the fifth most shots (15 per game) and shots on target (5.2) in the league this season.

Score prediction: Ipswich 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Already advised

Saturday 12:30 – Newcastle vs Bournemouth

1pt Ryan Christie to be carded at 5/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Lewis Cook to be carded at 4/1 (bet365, Boylesports)

Saturday 15:00

1pt Yoane Wissa to score anytime in Brentford vs Liverpool at 3/1 (bet365)

2pts Fulham to beat Leicester at 19/20 (William Hill)

Saturday 17:30 – Arsenal vs Aston Villa

1pt Aston Villa or draw (double chance) at 13/8 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Aston Villa or draw (double chance) and Emi Martinez to be carded at 16/1 (bet365)

Newcastle vs Bournemouth

Fouls and cards should be on the agenda here, with the league’s most foul-heavy team (Bournemouth – 13.4 per game) taking on one of the league’s best foul-drawing teams (Newcastle – 12.8 per game).

Throw in the mix that we have two good sides pushing for European football with less than a handful of points between them, and we could be in for a cracking contest.

The referee here is Stuart Attwell, an OK appointment for card backers. He’s averaged 3.73 cards per game in the top flight this season, but he does have the capability to flash them like confetti, and these two teams have been consistent for games seeing cards (5.89 in Newcastle’s home games and 5.27 in Bournemouth’s away).

I’m going to revisit my Newcastle midfield theory and back RYAN CHRISTIE TO BE CARDED at a huge 5/1.

With Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton, Newcastle have some of the best foul drawers in the league, and Christie is a high-pressing midfielder who is averaging 1.99 fouls per 90. He’s been booked seven times this season, including in midweek at Chelsea, so prices around 9/2 and 5/1 for another against this crew look massive.

If James Hill is out and Adam Smith isn’t fit enough to start at right back, LEWIS COOK could be in that position which spells trouble for the Bournemouth captain, making his price of 4/1 TO BE CARDED extremely generous.

Even if he was plays in midfield, this would be a bet, with Cook averaging 2.53 tackles and 1.83 fouls per 90, being carded four times this term.

Should he be in at right back he’ll be up against Anthony Gordon who’s been fouled 2.48 times per 90 this season, with the England winger getting his opposing number booked in four his last seven league games.

Score prediction: Newcastle 2-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Brentford vs Liverpool

Liverpool are wobbling in terms of results. It’s three games without a win against Premier League sides, though only once against Tottenham in the Carabao Cup were they poor. The Reds created enough against both Manchester United and Nottingham Forest to warrant wins.

That doesn’t mean I’m rushing to get them onside here, especially with Brentford a very awkward opponent at home. Having said that, they have lost both matches when hosting the current top three, with Liverpool the final member of that trio to visit the Gtech.

I do expect Arne Slot’s men to get back on the winning trail here, as the Bees simply concede too many chances to back them to avoid defeat, but I think Thomas Frank’s men will get on the scoresheet, and that has me wanting to back YOANE WISSA TO SCORE ANYTIME again.

He did the business for us in midweek against Manchester City when priced at 13/5, but this weekend we can back him at an even bigger 3/1.

Wissa’s xG per 90 is up to 0.64 after he scored his 11th goal of the season and was on the end of five chances equating to 1.63 xG, thriving on the counter attack, which is likely to be the main avenue of success for the Bees.

In total this bet has won in seven of Wissa’s nine home appearances this season, and if we add in the fact that Liverpool have struggled away from home of late, conceding 15 goals in their last nine matches in the UK, and it’s worth chancing him for the second time this week.

Score prediction: Brentford 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)

Leicester vs Fulham

Leicester are a bad team and that hasn’t changed since the arrival of Ruud van Nistelrooy. The Foxes have lost six straight games in the league, conceding 14 times in the process, with their latest defeat at home to Crystal Palace a real performance of desperation.

This weekend they welcome a FULHAM side who I rate more higher than the Eagles, yet the Cottagers are only a marginally shorter price TO WIN the game, so I’ll happily double down and back against Leicester for the second time this week.

Marco Silva’s men were beaten in midweek but that was just their third away loss of the season and was of their own making. They gifted West Ham two goals from sloppy play at the back, but otherwise conceded just two shots in the game.

I’m happy to overlook that as a one-off, and will instead focus on the excellent data the Cottagers have put up this season, with them one of only seven teams to boast a positive xG process when travelling.

Having already won at Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest and Chelsea, Fulham can add to Leicester’s misery on Saturday.

Score prediction: Leicester 0-2 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

West Ham vs Crystal Palace

West Ham were fortunate in midweek to beat Fulham, again looking defensively vulnerable just as they did in the FA Cup against Aston Villa, though this time they were gifted goals by their visitors.

The result looks to be a smokescreen, masking what was a poor performance that saw them create just two chances of their own volition, so I was extremely tempted to back Crystal Palace at even money in the draw no bet market.

As it is, I’m going to leave this game alone and just take a further watching brief of Potter’s Hammers. As a side note, Lucas Paqueta started as the main striker on Tuesday so his prices for a shot on target (5/4 – Unibet) and to score anytime (18/5 – Unibet) could be of some interest to those looking for an angle.

Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Arsenal vs Aston Villa

I had initially put this game down as an Arsenal win mainly due to Aston Villa’s record following a midweek match this season being W2 D3 L5, with their two wins both at home against relegation strugglers (Wolves and Southampton).

However, Unai Emery has likely had this game circled for a long, long time, looking to inflict another loss against his former team at his old stomping ground. Last term Villa did the double over the Gunners, keeping two clean sheets, and arguably cost them the title.

Arsenal beat Villa earlier in the campaign but it was Emery’s team who created the better chances (xG: 1.28-0.87) limiting a (fully-fit) Gunners team extremely well again.

They now face a Mikel Arteta side without key man Bukayo Saka, and with an attack massively struggling for attacking confidence.

Against a Spurs defence far inferior to Villa’s in midweek they kept getting into dangerous positions but making the wrong decision. Against Villa, they will get into dangerous positions far less often, meaning their chances to score will be even more limited.

Set-pieces will once again provide their main threat, but Villa are one of the best at defending the dead-ball, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Emery’s side nullify the hosts at the Emirates.

I did toy with the idea of Villa keeping a clean sheet, but instead, I’ll back ASTON VILLA OR DRAW in the hope of another masterclass from Villa’s Spanish coach, reminding everyone at Arsenal of the tactical genius they let go.

The visitors will be defensively solid, and if we factor in Arsenal’s relentless schedule over the last month making tiredness a big problem, I could see a young and direct Aston Villa team repeating their success of last season.

In true Jimmy the Punt style, I’ll also put small stakes on doubling up VILLA DOUBLE CHANCE and EMI MARTINEZ TO BE CARDED at 16/1.

Referee Chris Kavanagh is a good appointment for card backers, and a good one for keeper card backers. This season he has averaged 5.29 cards per game, and has booked four goalkeepers in 15 domestic matches – all for time-wasting.

If this game goes the way I expect, you just know that Villa stopper Martinez – arguably the world’s best at this – will be pulling out all the stops to run down the clock against his former club.

He’s been carded twice this season, one for dissent and one for kicking the ball away. Across the last three seasons in the league and Conference League he has been carded 13 times, one for a foul, one for dissent and 11 for time wasting – including once against Arsenal.

Score prediction: Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Super 6 predictions for round 31

• Brentford 1-2 Liverpool
• Leicester 0-2 Fulham
• West Ham 1-1 C Palace
• Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa
• Everton 1-0 Tottenham
• Ipswich 1-2 Manchester City

Saturday’s tips – Odds correct at 1045 GMT (17/01/25)

Sunday’s tips – Odds correct at 1540 GMT (17/01/25)

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