Joel Embiid’s Knee Injury Should Alter Sixers’ Trade-Deadline Strategy

Less than three weeks to go until the Feb. 6 NBA trade deadline, the Philadelphia 76ers’ season is circling the drain.

Heading into Saturday’s game against the Indiana Pacers, the Sixers are 15-24, which puts them 11th in the Eastern Conference. They’re only 1.5 games behind the 10th-seeded Chicago Bulls for the final spot in the East play-in tournament, but they’re now 4.5 games behind the No. 9 seed Miami Heat. It’s looking increasingly likely that they’ll have to win two road games in the play-in tournament just to draw a first-round matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

There’s no guarantee that the Sixers will even surpass the Bulls and qualify for the play-in tournament, though. They’re currently riding a four-game losing streak, and 12 of their next 13 opponents are either .500 or above. The lone exception is the Bulls, whom they face on the second night of a back-to-back later this month.

They’ll likely be doing so without star center Joel Embiid. On Friday, the Sixers announced Embiid experienced “an increase in swelling” in his surgically repaired left knee following a workout. He’s set to miss at least the Sixers’ next three games and will be re-evaluated in 7-10 days.

Embiid has played in only 13 games this season due to a combination of knee, face and ankle injuries. The odds of him staying healthy from here on out and guiding the Sixers on a deep playoff run this season seem slim to none. That should alter their strategy heading into the trade deadline, as they now have far less incentive to make a win-now move.

The Original Plan

Had the Sixers stayed healthy and lived up to their preseason expectations as a top-tier championship contender, their trade-deadline plan seemed fairly straightforward.

This past offseason, the Sixers signed KJ Martin to a two-year, $16 million contract that was well above what he otherwise would have received in free agency. They didn’t just do that out of the kindness of their hearts, though. They were giving themselves a decent-sized contract to dangle at the trade deadline.

Because the Sixers are over the $178.1 million first apron, they aren’t allowed to take back more salary via a standard trade exception than they send out in any deal. They are allowed to aggregate two smaller contracts for a bigger salary since they’re below the $188.9 million second apron, though.

In essence, they signed Martin to give themselves an $8 million contract that they could use for salary-matching in a trade. The Suns did the same thing with Josh Okogie, whom they signed to a two-year, $16 million deal this past offseason. They just shipped him to the Charlotte Hornets on Wednesday with three second-round picks for center Nick Richards and a 2025 Denver Nuggets second-rounder.

The Sixers are top-heavy in terms of salary. Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey are their only three players earning at least $9 million this season. Unless they trade one of those three, it’d be extremely difficult for them to acquire someone earning north of $20 million this season. Aggregating Martin with Eric Gordon ($3.3 million) would allow them to easily land someone in the $10-11 million range, though.

However, given the state of Embiid’s knee, the Sixers now have far less incentive to do so.

The Pivot

The second year of Martin’s contract is fully non-guaranteed until Jan. 10, 2026. If the Sixers move him by this year’s trade deadline, whichever team he lands on could waive him this summer and be left with no dead cap hit. In essence, he could be treated as an $8 million expiring contract.

However, since Martin is under contract through 2025-26, the Sixers don’t have to move him by the trade deadline. They could revisit those conversations this offseason or ahead of next year’s deadline. He wouldn’t have the same cap-relief benefit for whichever team acquires him—the Sixers would have to guarantee whichever portion of his contract they’d need for salary-matching purposes in a trade—but that’s still an option for them.

If the Sixers weren’t scuffling, they might have been more willing to move Martin for a player on an expiring contract, much like they did with Buddy Hield at last year’s trade deadline. They have less incentive to risk giving up assets for a potential short-term rental if they have little hope of competing for a championship this season, though.

Instead, the Sixers should pivot the other way and trade veterans who don’t fit into their long-term vision for any assets they can procure. It’s unlikely that they’d fetch much for Gordon, Andre Drummond or Reggie Jackson, but getting something for them now is better than potentially losing them for nothing in free agency this summer.

Kelly Oubre Jr. and Guerschon Yabusele might now be their two toughest decisions. Oubre has an $8.4 million player option for next season that he could decline to become an unrestricted free agent, while Yabusele is only on a one-year, veteran-minimum contract. Both could walk as free agents this offseason and leave the Sixers empty-handed.

The Sixers do have Early Bird rights on Oubre, which will allow them to offer him a four-year contract worth slightly more than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. That should be enough to keep him in the fold, provided that they’re both interested in continuing their partnership. However, the Sixers have only non-Bird rights on Yabusele, so they’re fairly limited in how much they can offer him this summer.

If the Sixers aren’t optimistic about their chances of re-signing Oubre or Yabusele in free agency, it’d be worth exploring their market over the next few weeks. Trading either player for draft picks and/or young prospects would suggest that the Sixers are throwing in the towel on this season, but Embiid’s ongoing knee issues might have forced their hand in that regard.

Given the long-term uncertainty regarding Embiid’s health, the Sixers should not consider trading one of their distant first-round picks (2029 or 2031) at this year’s deadline. They also shouldn’t be willing to dangle the fully unprotected 2028 first-round pick that the Los Angeles Clippers owe them unless it’s for a home run on a multi-year contract.

The Sixers owe their 2025 first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside the top six, so they’re less incentivized to tank than an injury-ravaged team in their position otherwise would be. However, that’s a sunk cost at this point. If the Sixers burn assets to salvage what’s left of this season, they’d just be doubling down on that mistake.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.