Maui Weather Forecast for January 29, 2025 : Maui Now

West Side

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 74 to 79. Light winds becoming southwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71. South winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Windy. Cloudy with occasional showers and chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 74 to 80. South winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

South Side

Today: Partly sunny in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82. Light winds becoming southwest up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 74. Southwest winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Windy. Cloudy with occasional showers and chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 82. South winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 78 to 83. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 69. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Windy. Cloudy with numerous showers and chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 78 to 83. Southwest winds 15 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers. Highs around 60 at the visitor center to around 62 at the summit. South winds up to 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph shifting to the southwest up to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 45 at the visitor center to around 41 at the summit. South winds up to 35 mph increasing to 15 to 35 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 65 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Very windy. Cloudy with occasional showers and chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 61 at the visitor center to around 64 at the summit. South winds 20 to 45 mph with gusts to 75 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 69 to 76. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 63. South winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Thursday: Windy. Cloudy with occasional showers and chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 69 to 76. South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Kaunakakai

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 82. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 55 to 71. Southeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to south after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Windy. Cloudy with occasional showers and chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 66 to 83. South winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Synopsis

Cool and pleasant conditions will linger early this morning before quickly transitioning through the day today as winds shift out of the south-southeast ahead of a strengthening low approaching from the northwest. This strong winter low pressure system will pass just north of Kauai on Thursday, with a cold front advancing down the island chain Thursday through Friday. The threat of flash flooding, damaging south to southwest winds, and strong to severe thunderstorms will accompany the front. Conditions will quickly improve behind the front Friday night into the weekend, continuing through early next week.

Discussion

Mostly dry and cool conditions will linger early this morning, with dewpoints hovering in the 50s for most areas. The best chance for any light showers will be over the far eastern end of the state, where a residual moisture axis associated with an old front remains.
A quick transition period is anticipated through the day in response to strong low pressure approaching from the northwest. The low-level flow will quickly respond and increase, while veering out of the south to southeast through the day, drawing warm and moist air northward. Dewpoints will surge into the mid to upper 60s by the end of the day. Isentropic upglide combined with the moistening boundary layer will support increasing rain chances by the end of the day, mostly in the form of isolated to scattered afternoon showers favoring south through east facing slopes.
Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts an active weather pattern unfolding late tonight through early Friday, with strong surface low pressure passing nearby to the north and its attendant cold front advancing down the island chain. Kinematic (0-6 km bulk shear values of 35-45 kt, with up to 40-50 knot winds at 850 mb) and thermodynamic profiles (MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) continue to support a potential significant event evolving across the state, with impacts ranging from damaging southwest winds (downsloping into north thru windward sections), to strong to severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. Additionally, deep convection will support the potential for periods of heavy snow over the Big Island Summits late Thursday through Friday.
Conditions will quickly improve over the weekend as the upper trough and surface low lift northeastward and away from the region and high pressure builds in its wake.

Aviation

Moderate easterly winds should veer southeast today due to a low pressure NW of the islands getting closer. A few SHRA with MVFR conds should favor windward and mauka locations today.
As the aforementioned low pressure passes to the north of the islands, a strong cold front will push down the island chain late tonight through Friday. Expect conds to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR or worse with high and gusty winds, heavy rain and thunderstorms all possible.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward Big Island. This should improve in the morning hours. As this next system moves in expect this to go back into effect.
AIRMET Tango is not in effect but may be needed later tonight as this next system moves in.

Marine

A strong low pressure passing eastward through the region will increase the threats of strong thunderstorms, gale-force winds, and periods of heavy rain across the state. Wind threats will include strong to gale force southwest wind speeds from tonight through Thursday with erratic and damaging wind gusts possible near any thunderstorms. A cold front will also move across the islands during this time period. Gentle to fresh westerly to northwesterly winds will build in rapidly behind the front along with improving marine weather trends. Marine Weather Warnings are likely during this time due to the high potential for strong thunderstorms. A Gale Watch remains in effect for the waters around Kauai from tonight through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory will also be needed for all remaining Hawaiian coastal waters during this time period.
A new north-northwest swell will peak this morning below advisory thresholds. A larger north swell should fill in later Thursday into Friday, which could reach advisory levels for north facing shores. Several reinforcing pulses are expected Friday into early next week as the swell veers more northeasterly and could produce advisory level surf along east facing shores due to the shift in swell direction this weekend. A moderate west-northwest swell will eventually move in with the overlapping north to northeast swells building in by next week Monday and then peaking by Tuesday.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small today. Rough and choppy surf will develop along south and west facing shores from tonight through Friday due to the strong south to southwesterly kona winds developing from the passing low pressure system.

Fire weather

Critical fire weather conditions not expected through the forecast period.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Wind Watch from this evening to 6 AM HST Friday for all Hawaiian Islands.
High Wind Watch from this evening to 6 AM HST Friday for Haleakala Summit.
High Wind Warning from noon today to 6 AM HST Friday for Big Island Summits.
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for Big Island Summits.
Gale Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov