MBB Preview: Mizzou saddles up to Texas

While the SEC has remained at the top of men’s college basketball in terms of collective greatness, an unexpected member of the summit has been No. 22 Mizzou, who entered the AP Poll for the first time since the end of the 2022-23 season.

The Tigers are 4-1 in conference play for the first time since the 2011-12 season, their last as a member of the Big 12. Entering Tuesday, they’re tied with No. 4 Alabama and No. 16 Ole Miss for No. 2 in the SEC standings, while No. 1 Auburn remains unblemished in SEC play at 5-0.

Better yet for Dennis Gates’ squad, they’ve got a solid shot at improving to 5-1. While a long road trip awaits to Austin, their opponent’s trajectory has gone in the opposite direction through two weeks and change of SEC play.

Missouri @ Texas

When | 8:00 p.m. CT

Where | Moody Center; Austin, Tx.

TV | SEC Network

Radio | Tiger Radio Network // Sirius/XM -119/199

ESPN win probability | 29% chance

The Starters

Mizzou (15-3, 4-1 SEC)

G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 10.5 PPG)

G: Tamar Bates (SR, 12.9 PPG)

G: Tony Perkins (SR, 8.0 PPG)

F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 13.8 PPG)

F: Trent Pierce (SO, 8.4 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Caleb Grill (SR, 12.5 PPG)

Texas (12-6, 1-4 SEC)

G: Tre Johnson (FR, 18.6 PPG)

G: Jordan Pope (JR, 12.7 PPG)

G: Tramon Mark (SR, 9.6 PPG)

F: Arthur Kaluma (SR, 13.8 PPG)

F: Kadin Shedrick (SR, 7.8 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Ze’Rik Onyema (SR, 4.2 PPG)

Note: These starting lineups are projected.

Get to know Texas: Cows on the verge of tipping over

Longhorn athletics have already experienced high levels of success since joining the SEC. Football made it to the SEC title game and the College Football Playoff semifinals. Women’s volleyball finished No. 11 in AVCA rankings, the second-highest ranking for any SEC team behind No. 8 Kentucky. Women’s soccer won the SEC Tournament and finished as a consensus Top 25 team. Women’s basketball is currently 17-2 (4-1 in SEC play) and No. 7 in the AP Poll.

Men’s basketball, on the other hand, is far from the SEC’s upper-echelon. Rodney Terry & Co. entered this season with high expectations, as they were ranked No. 19 in the first AP Poll and were primed for a high single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament. While Texas is still in the NCAA Tournament picture, it’s living dangerously on the bubble.

The ‘Horns also haven’t started SEC play on the right foot, losing four of their first five conference games for the first time since the 2016-17 season. Their early returns have been a mixed bag; they lost to Auburn and No. 5 Tennessee by just four and five points, respectively. UT also got blown out at Texas A&M at and, most recently, at Florida, although it was a close game until later in the second half. Its lone SEC win came in Norman against Oklahoma last Wednesday.

Offensively, Texas is lead by the trio of Tre Johnson, Arthur Kaluma and Jordan Pope. Johnson, a freshman combo guard who played at Link Academy in Missouri, is currently a projected top-10 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. He’s an explosive three-level scorer with a nuanced offensive arsenal. He also possesses elite shooting range, especially on catch-and-shoot opportunities. Kaluma, a transfer from Kansas State via Creighton, is a versatile scoring forward who leans on his pivot foot heavily down low; the step-through is a go-to move of his. Pope, an Oregon State transfer, is a smaller guard who’s a microwave scorer. He scored 13 straight points against the Sooners and 42 total against New Orleans on Dec. 19, which included seven made three-pointers.

Their efforts, however, could be dampened by getting left out of the NCAA Tournament, which could become a real possibility if Texas can’t right the ship soon. Following Tuesday’s contest with Mizzou is a home game against rival No. 13 Texas A&M, then a road trip to No. 16 Ole Miss. There’s a chance that the Longhorns start its inaugural season in the SEC 1-7 in conference play.

A miss would be especially odd for a program who’s gone dancing more times in the past few decades than most other Division I programs. The Longhorns have made 30 of the last 35 NCAA Tournaments, one of only six teams to do so (Arizona, Duke, Kansas, Michigan State and North Carolina). Tuesday offers an opportunity to get back on track against a newly-ranked opponent.

3 Keys to the Game

Move it!

Ah, yes Quentin, please be a little more vague for us, thank you (that’s probably what my editor just thought. Sorry!)

The Longhorns have struggled a bit defensively in the SEC slate, as they’ve allowed almost 80 points per game over their last five contests. One of the culprits has been late rotations. Oftentimes, the Longhorns have been a step behind of both on and off-ball screens, which has led to open looks all over the floor. Closeouts on three-point shooters have also been slow…that’s if Texas even closed out at all. These issues were especially prevalent against Florida, who ended the game on a 23-6 run.

This could spell great news for Mizzou, who’s created a lot of open looks with effective ball movement and off-ball movement. The biggest beneficiary of such has been Caleb Grill, who emulates the Energizer bunny off the ball. He’s shooting just over (wipes non-existent glasses) 49% (!) from beyond the arc on 75 attempts. He was also just named SEC Player of the Week after shooting a combined 9/15 from three against Florida and Arkansas.

If Texas remains a step behind as Grill is flying around its halfcourt defense, it could be a long night for the Longhorns.

Close out!

Texas has also struggled shooting the three-pointer in SEC play. Through five games, the Longhorns are just 30/103 (29.1%) from beyond the arc.

However, they’ve gotten hot from beyond the arc plenty of times this season, as they’re 6-1 in games where they shoot at least 40% from three. Now, were three of those wins against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, New Orleans and Chicago State, who have a combined record of 9-45? You bet! But the point is that UT can easily get going from downtown.

The two guys MU will have to keep an eye out for are Johnson and Pope, who are shooting 40% and 38% from three-point range, respectively. Texas runs plenty of plays to get Johnson an open look from the perimeter, especially on inbounds passes from under its own basket.

Win the turnover battle

Mizzou has taken excellent care of the basketball lately, committing just eight turnovers against Florida and nine against Arkansas.

While Texas isn’t great at forcing turnovers (12.6 per game, No. 187 nationally), the Longhorns are exceptional at not turning the ball over themselves. Their 9.6 turnovers per game are tied for the 12th-fewest nationally. Turning Texas over might be difficult for Mizzou, but if it can not only create extra possessions, but capitalize off of them as well, then the Tigers will be in an extra-good spot on Tuesday night.

Game Prediction

My prediction: Mizzou 77, Texas 68

Despite the perceived struggles that Texas has endured so far, the Longhorns are far from bad. Again, they’ve spent a lot more time in close games than blowouts against a handful of really good teams already.

But Mizzou has proven that it can beat teams in numerous ways. One of them has been to drown teams from beyond the arc. Grill isn’t the only above-average shooter that the Tigers possess; Jacob Crews, Tamar Bates, Trent Pierce, Anthony Robinson II, Tony Perkins and Marques Warrick are all more than capable of ripping the nets from downtown.

The ‘Horns have the offensive firepower to compete with any SEC team. But they haven’t shown a similar ability to stop opponents from scoring, which is where I think they might fall short on Tuesday.