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Meta, YouTube, and Others Morgan Stanley Says Could Benefit From TikTok Ban
Key Takeaways
- A TikTok ban could go into effect in the U.S. on Sunday, leaving other companies to compete for its users’ attention and almost $10 billion in ad revenue.
- Meta could be the biggest winner given its large user base said analysts at Morgan Stanley.
- Alphabet’s YouTube, along with Snapchat, Pinterest, and Roblox are some of the top contenders to benefit from the ban.
With a TikTok ban potentially taking effect in the U.S. on Sunday, analysts at Morgan Stanley said other social media platforms could compete for the roughly $10 billion in ad revenue and 32 billion hours users spend on the app each year.
The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday upheld a law requiring TikTok’s Chinese parent, ByteDance, to sell the platform or face a shutdown in the U.S. as of Jan. 19 amid national security concerns. That means app stores such as Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google Play Store and Apple’s (AAPL) App Store won’t be able to offer TikTok to users in the U.S. after Sunday’s deadline, and the app could go “dark” for U.S.-based users.
Meta Could Be Biggest Winner, According to Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley analysts suggested ahead of the decision that Meta (META) could be the “largest fundamental winner” if the ban takes effect Sunday, given its large user base and dataset on Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp.
They added that for every 10% of U.S. user time currently spent on TikTok that Meta can capture, it could add 30 cents to 60 cents to the company’s estimated roughly $30 in earnings per share in 2026.
“Said another way, META’s ability to capture half of [TikTok]’s time would likely add $1 to $3 to our ‘26 EPS,” the analysts added, noting the biggest gains could come from Instagram Reels, which offers similar short-form video content.
Along With Meta, YouTube Could See More Engagement
YouTube, particularly YouTube Shorts, could also see increased engagement after a TikTok shutdown in the U.S., Morgan Stanley said.
However, Morgan Stanley estimated Shorts monetizes at half the rate of typical YouTube content, meaning the same 10% time share gain might only add a 1% to 2% increase in YouTube ad revenue. That could mean even if YouTube gained a 50% share and Shorts monetized at the standard YouTube rate, ad revenue for its owner Alphabet would increase just 1.2% in 2026, the firm said.
Snapchat, Pinterest, and Roblox Among Contenders
Social media companies Snapchat (SNAP) and Pinterest (PINS), as well as online gaming entity Roblox (RBLX), could also contend for a piece of the ad revenue pie, Morgan Stanley said. However, the analysts warned the companies might need to prove performance, scalability, and returns on ad spending.
Reddit (RDDT) and Applovin (APP) were among those that could see long-term benefits as well, Morgan Stanley added, noting improving engagement on their platforms.
In a recent report, Morgan Stanley analysts have identified several companies that could potentially benefit from the ban of TikTok in the United States. Among those mentioned are Meta, the parent company of Facebook, as well as YouTube and other social media platforms.
The analysts believe that a TikTok ban could lead to increased user engagement on other platforms, as users look for alternative ways to consume content and connect with others. This could potentially drive up advertising revenue for these companies, as well as boost their overall user base.
Meta, in particular, has been making moves to capitalize on the potential ban of TikTok. The company recently launched its own short-form video platform, Reels, which is seen as a direct competitor to TikTok. With its massive user base and advertising capabilities, Meta could stand to benefit greatly if TikTok is banned in the US.
Similarly, YouTube could see increased traffic and ad revenue if users migrate from TikTok to its platform. As one of the largest video-sharing platforms in the world, YouTube already has a strong foothold in the market and could attract new users looking for a TikTok alternative.
Overall, Morgan Stanley’s report highlights the potential opportunities for companies like Meta, YouTube, and others if TikTok is banned in the US. It will be interesting to see how these companies capitalize on this potential shift in the social media landscape.
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- Meta
- YouTube
- Morgan Stanley
- TikTok ban
- social media
- digital marketing
- tech industry
- online entertainment
- social media platforms
- marketing strategies
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