It was a disappointing defensive effort by Miami on Saturday, when it allowed 120 points in a 10-point loss to the Hawks. What was even more worrisome was the fact that Atlanta recorded 34 assists in that game, Miami’s defense looked stagnant and they are really starting to feel the absence of Jimmy Butler. He will also miss Sunday’s game at Houston due to conditioning reasons. Miami heads into Houston as a 7.5 point underdog, which does sound like a lot against a team it has beaten 8 times in a row. Miami also holds a distinct edge in covering the spread here, having done so 12 times in the last 16 meetings.

Houston also comes into this game after a loss. The Rockets be kicking themselves after letting a 16-point lead slip away vs Minnesota on Friday. It was only their 4th home loss in 15 games this season, they’ve been a reliable 10-5 ATS in those 15 games. Catching Miami on a 2nd night of a back-to-back might just be enough to overturn this poor head-to-head record they have against them. Unlike Atlanta, Houston does not play a fast pace, they mostly rely on their defense to win games. Opponents make just 35% of attempts against them from downtown, which ranks 7th best in the NBA.

A low-scoring game would benefit Miami here; it can lose by 7 points and still cover the spread. The road loss to Atlanta will be a wake-up call, this has been a favorable matchup for them over the year and I feel like they should have enough to keep this a close game. I’m taking Miami.

Heat vs Rockets prediction: Miami +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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