Mike Johnson faces leadership test as US House begins new session with vote | House of Representatives

The US House of Representatives will begin its new session on Friday with a dramatic speakership vote that could either cement Republican Mike Johnson’s leadership or plunge Congress into turmoil, as Republican dissent threatens his hold on power.

As the House’s first order of business – which is scheduled to begin around noon Eastern time – members must elect a speaker before they can be sworn in. Each representative will stand to declare their choice in a roll call vote, with Johnson needing a majority of all members voting to secure victory.

Johnson faces a close mathematical path to victory. With Republicans holding a slim 219-215 majority, and Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie already declaring his opposition, Johnson can’t afford to lose a single additional vote without risking multiple rounds of voting reminiscent of last session’s speaker election chaos.

Assuming all 434 current House members participate (there is one vacancy), Johnson needs 218 votes to win. With Democrats expected to unite behind their leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, and Massie planning to vote against him, Johnson starts with exactly 218 potential votes – the bare minimum needed. Any additional defection would deny him a majority and force a second ballot.

However, members can vote “present” instead of naming a candidate, which would lower the threshold needed for victory by reducing the total number of votes cast for candidates.

Several prominent Republicans remain noncommittal, including Texas representative Chip Roy, Arizona representative Andy Biggs, Pennsylvania representative Scott Perry, Indiana representative Victoria Spartz and House Freedom caucus chair Andy Harris from Maryland – despite Johnson receiving Donald Trump’s endorsement earlier this week.

Johnson’s team has reportedly been working frantically behind the scenes, conducting last-minute negotiations with various Republican factions to secure their support.

Much of his support came tumbling down in the last year, after helping Democrats usher in billions of aid to Ukraine in the spring against conservative wishes and caving to billionaire GOP mega-donor Elon Musk for compromises on short-term government spending last month.

Because of those deals, some Republicans including Spartz are seeking assurances on cuts to government spending to deliver on Trump’s agenda.

“If Speaker Johnson wants to be speaker, then he needs to lay out a plan and commit to that plan, not like what he did last year,” Spartz said on Fox News earlier this week. “I can give him a chance, but I would like to hear from him how he’s going to be delivering this agenda.”

If Johnson fails to secure a majority on the first ballot, the House would enter a state of limbo, unable to conduct any other business until a speaker is elected.

The last speaker election in January 2023 required 15 rounds of voting before former speaker Kevin McCarthy was confirmed. Johnson emerged as a compromise candidate in October of that year following McCarthy’s removal from the position, when eight Republicans went rogue to vote alongside Democrats – the first such ouster in American political history.