NC State Launches the ACC Season on the Road Against Virginia

When: Tuesday December 31 – 12:00 PM

Where: Charlottesville VA, John Paul Jones Arena

TV: ESPN2

Opponent: Virginia Cavaliers

Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): UVA 62-61 / UVA 60-57

Wolfpack Snapshot:

• Record: 8-4, 1-0
• Rankings: KP #84, BT #90, WAB -1.1 ranked 91st *
• NET Ranking: NET 103, 12th in ACC Conf NET rankings
• NET performance: Q1 (0-3), Q2 (0-1), Q3 (1-0), Q4 (7-0)

Wolfpack Season So Far:

NC State has no resume building (Q1 or Q2) wins this season. Beating UVA in Charlottesville would currently be a Q2 and our best win to date.

Looking ahead, based on today’s NET, Wake would be Q2, Notre Dame Q3, and UNC Q2.

Wolfpack Player Notes:

• Mike James had knee surgery on 10/30, doctors [incorrectly] estimated 3-4 week recovery

Opponent Overview:

The Cavs were voted to finish 5^th in the ACC season, just days before head coach Tony Bennett announced his retirement. Virgina quickly named associate head coach Ron Sanchez as the interim head coach. Sanchez is a ‘Bennett guy’ having worked for Tony’s dad Dick Bennett at Wazzu and then stuck around to work for Tony there, and then followed Tony to Charlottesville. In 2018 he got the HC job at Charlotte and did five seasons there recording a 72-78 record and winning a CBI championship before resigning and returning to UVA last season.

Coach Sanchez has had to deal with a boatload of roster turnover from last season’s 23-11 team that lost a memorable ACCT game, and then a nearly as memorable 25 point loss to Colorado State in the NCAAT ‘first four’ game. Reese Beekman (2-way) and Ryan Dunn are in the NBA, Jordan Minor is in the G-League. Jake Groves got a job overseas. Leon Bond and Dante Harris decided to transfer.

The Hoos added starters PG Dai Dai Ames (4-star, Kansas State) and forward Elijah Saunders (3-star, San Diego State), and forward TJ Power (4-star, Duke) from the portal and signed two freshmen, hot shooting guard Ishan Sharma and 6’10” big man Anthony Robinson.

On top of all that, backup guard Elijah Gertrude will miss the season due to knee surgery and FSU 4-star transfer Jalen Warley decided to bail when Tony Bennett retired and will redshirt this season and transfer again in the spring.

Opponent Snapshot:

• Record: 7-5, 0-1
• Rankings: KP 101, BT 96, WAB -1.0 ranked 87th *
• NET Ranking: NET 102, 11th in ACC NET rankings
• NET Performance: Q1 (0-4), Q2 (1-1), Q3 (0-0), Q4 (6-0)

Their ACC Rankings of Note: (Source: theacc.com)

1. The Cavaliers rank last offensively but second defensively.
2. UVA ranks second in 3PT percentage and tenth in made 3PT shots
3. Virginia is last in free throw attempts and makes
4. They are last in team rebounds
5. The Cavs are last in turnover margin

Their Season So Far:

Like the Wolfpack, they have won their buy games and lost their four most difficult games – Tennessee (-22) and St John’s (-25) in the Bahamas, Florida (-18) in the ACC/SEC Challenge, and they played Memphis very close at home, but eventually lost by 2.

They lost their ACC opener on the road at SMU (-12).

They beat Villanova (+10) on a neutral court for their best win (Q2) of the season.

Player Notes

McKneely is #1 in the ACC in 3PT percentage and second in 3PT made per game

Buchanan is sixth in the ACC in blocked shots

Wolfpack Keys To The Game

1. Score! – The Cavs have only scored 70 or more twice this season.
2. Prepare for a slow pace – UVA’s Adj Tempo ranks 364 (last), they average 20.6 seconds per offensive possession – we’ll have to stay focused on defense. We’ll have to shoot well to maximize our limited offensive opportunities.
3. Effective half-court offense – Transition baskets will be rare, so we’ll face UVA’s pack line defense on most possessions. Our assist numbers are going to have to be very good, this will need to be won as a team.
4. Guard the 3PT line – Virginia has three starters averaging better than 44% from 3PT, and another averaging 38.7%. In their best win of the season against Villanova, they shot 56%.

* Welcome to the WAB

The WAB (wins against bubble) is a metric popularized by Bart Torvik that the NCAA Selection Committee has decided to include in its deliberations starting this season. It shows how many more, or fewer, wins a team has against its schedule versus what a bubble team would expect to have against the same schedule. The WAB metric uses NET as the basis for opponent strength, with the reference “bubble team” being defined as a team ranked 45th in NET, based on a study of recent seasons. If interested, further details linked below: