NC State Visits Wake Forest

When: Saturday January 4 – 12:00 PM

Where: Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum – Winston-Salem NC

TV: The CW

Opponent: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): WF 69-66 / WF 66-64

Wolfpack Snapshot:

• Record: 8-5, 1-1
• Rankings: KP #83, BT #90, WAB -1.7 ranked 107th *
• NET Ranking: NET 104, 12th in ACC Conf NET rankings
• NET performance: Q1 (0-3), Q2 (0-2), Q3 (1-0), Q4 (7-0)

Wolfpack Season So Far:

NC State missed a great opportunity for a quality road win Tuesday in Charlottesville, but came up 3 points short. We have zero quality wins to date.

Winning at Wake Forest would be a quality (Q2) win.

Wolfpack Player Notes:

• Mike James had knee surgery on 10/30, doctors (incorrectly) estimated a 3–4 week recovery.
• Ben Middlebrooks missed Tuesday’s game, Coach Keatts said he was throwing up and receiving fluids in the locker room. They were not yet sure of the cause during the game press conferences, however there was no indication that it was more than a temporary issue.

Opponent Overview:

Wake Forest was picked to finish 3rd in the league this season by the ACC writers.

Coach Steve Forbes is entering his fifth season. His Demon Deacons are coming off a 21-14 season that ended in the second round of both the ACC tournament and the NIT. They ended the season tied for fifth in the league, duplicating Coach Forbes’ highest ACC finish to date.

The Deacs lost two starters to the transfer portal, Andrew Carr (Kentucky) and Boopie Miller (SMU).

However, they returned three of their top five scorers, their two former ‘Gonzaga guys’, Efton Reid and Hunter Sallis, plus Cameron Hildreth. They also held on to sharpshooter Parker Friedrichsen.

Their transfer harvest included filling the two empty starting spots with Davin Cosby, Jr. from Alabama’s Final Four team, and Tre’Von Spillers from App State (who coincidentally lost to Wake Forest in the 2024 NIT). Plus they added Ty-Laur Johnson from Louisville, Omaha Biliew from Iowa State, and Churchill Abass from Depaul.

Coach Forbes only brought in one freshman, 4-star 6’7” freshman guard Juke (not a typo) Harris.

Opponent Snapshot:

• Record: 10-4, 2-1
• Rankings: KP #93, BT #105, WAB 0.22 ranked 57th *
• NET Ranking: NET 94, 9th in ACC Conf NET rankings
• NET performance: Q1 (1-4), Q2 (0-0), Q3 (3-0), Q4 (6-0)

Their ACC Rankings of Note: (Source: theacc.com)

• The Deacs profile similar to UVA in that they rely on defense. They are 2nd to last in offense, but 3rd in defense
• Wake is last in team FG percentage / 2nd in opponent FG percentage
• Wake is last in team 3PT percentage
• Wake is 14th in team rebounds, and 17th in opponent team rebounds
• The Deacs have the 2nd most turnovers on the season (174), NC State has the least (127)
• WF is 2nd in blocked shots

Their Season So Far:

Wake has played 5 Q1 games, they beat Michigan by two in Greensboro, and lost to Xavier (-15), Florida (-17), Texas A&M (-13) and Clemson.

The Deacs are 2-1 in the conference, with a home win against BC (+6), a (first time ever) road win Saturday against Syracuse (+10), and a loss at Clemson (-11).

Player Notes

• Ty-Laur Johnson got his first start of the season, replacing Davin Cosby, Jr., in Tuesday’s game against Syracuse
• Hunter Sallis was voted preseason 1st team All ACC
• Hunter Sallis is 5th in the ACC in scoring
• Tre’Von Spillers is 3rd in rebounding

For The Wolfpack to Win

1. The last time we played Wake Forest, Sallis scored 33 on us. Might want to keep an eye on him.
2. Share the ball – Against UVA in the first half we had 11 assists on 13 baskets and scored 39 points. In the second half, 3 assists on 11 baskets and scored 28 points.
3. We need Ben Middlebrooks’ defense back, he had started the five games prior to being sick at Virginia and averaged 9.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 1 steal, and 1.6 blocks.
4. Dontrez Styles needs to find his shot. He hasn’t scored double digits since Coppin St (12/10)

* Welcome to the WAB

The WAB (wins against bubble) is a metric popularized by Bart Torvik that the NCAA Selection Committee will include in its deliberations starting this season. It shows how many more, or fewer, wins a team has against its schedule versus what a bubble team would expect to have against the same schedule. The WAB metric uses NET as the basis for opponent strength, with the reference “bubble team” being defined as a team ranked 45th in NET, based on a study of recent seasons.