New Orleans weather forecast chance of severe weather tornadoes

Severe storms are possible in the New Orleans weather forecast through Saturday

Threats of heavy rain, lightning, strong winds, large hail, and tornadoes are possible

Updated: 10:28 PM CST Dec 27, 2024

REMAINS LOW. WDSU FIRST WARNING WEATHER IMPACT DAY FOR FOG RIGHT NOW. AN ALERT DAY TOMORROW FOR THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE THE CRESCENT CITY CONNECTION BEHIND ME, BUT THAT’S THAT’S GOING TO BE OBSCURED FROM THE FOG. HERE ARE THE VISIBILITY REPORTS. LESS THAN A 10TH OF A MILE AT THE AIRPORT RIGHT NOW. I WAS JUST CHECKING OUT SOME ARRIVALS AT MSI AT LOUIS ARMSTRONG INTERNATIONAL, AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DELAYS. I’VE SEEN SOME THAT WERE SET FOR A LITTLE BIT LATER. THIS COULD BE FROM OTHER AIRPORTS COMING IN, BUT WHEN YOU’VE GOT VISIBILITY THAT IS OBSCURED, YOU’RE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO LAND PLANES IN THAT. SO I WANT YOU TO BE AWARE IF YOU’VE GOT LATE FLIGHTS COMING IN, IF YOU’RE TRYING TO TAKE OFF DOWN TO A MILE VISIBILITY IN THE HAMMOND, HALF A MILE INTO HOUMA, DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN PLACE, AND THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL GO UNTIL 10 A.M. TOMORROW MORNING. IT INCLUDES THE LAKES, TOO. THEY’RE JUST NOT SHOWN IN SOME OF THE OUTER WATERS HERE AS WELL. WE STILL HAVE SOME STORM ACTIVITY TO TALK ABOUT, THOUGH. AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT. THIS IS SOMETHING THE FORECAST DATA HAVEN’T REALLY PICKED UP ON, BUT LOWER PLAQUEMINES TO NAIRN VENICE MARINA BOOTHVILLE GETTING SOME HEFTY STORMS. ONE STORM THAT MOVED ON SHORE THAT WAS SOUTHWEST OF HOUMA. THAT’S NOT DOING MUCH HERE. WE LOOK AT WHAT’S UP FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS. YOU CAN SEE AS YOU GO TO OUTER SAINT BERNARD PARISH AND MORE SOME RURAL AREAS. BUT THERE IT IS AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE SMALLER COMMUNITIES TO PORT SULFUR, GRAND BAYOU, NAIRN, EMPIRE, VENICE, DE BURAS GETTING SOME OF THAT HEFTY STORM. AND THAT’S WHERE THE WORST OF THEM ARE. TONIGHT, WHEN I WAS JUST SAYING OUR FORECAST DATA, WE’RE NOT PICKING UP ON THIS STORM ACTIVITY. BUT LATELY THEY STARTED TO CHIME IN ONTO IT AND SHOW THAT THIS STORM ACTIVITY DOES THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AND STAYS MORE EAST OF NEW ORLEANS. WE WILL GO FROM THERE. IN THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST. SO WHERE WE STAND WITH MILD WEATHER IN PLACE AND THOSE TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO THE DEW POINTS HERE TO WE’RE 60S OR 70S STILL 71 AT THE AIRPORT, 69 LAKEFRONT AND THOSE ARE ALMOST EXACTLY WHERE THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE. SO WE’VE FORMED CLOUDS AND WE’VE PUT IT ON THE GROUND AND THAT’S FOG. SO WHERE DO WE STAND IN THE WAY OF STORM SYSTEMS? AND WHAT BRINGS THIS RISK FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE ALERT DAY TOMORROW? WELL, THIS STORM IS MOVING AWAY. IT’S INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT THIS STORM REALLY MOVES QUICKLY AND IT TAPS INTO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. WE’VE GOT STRONG WINDS ALOFT THAT ARE COMING UP AT ABOUT 30,000FT TO ADD MORE LIFT, MORE ENERGY TO THE ATMOSPHERE. AND THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO BEING SO CLOSE TO US PROVIDES SOME OF THAT WORST SPIN AT GROUND LEVEL. SO WE DO HAVE AN ELEVATED TORNADO RISK HERE TOO. SO LET’S JUMP RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST. I WANT TO GIVE YOU THE TIMING AND EXACTLY WHAT THE THREATS WILL BE FOR YOU. LATEST SHORT TERM DATA. THIS ONE LINES UP PRETTY WELL TO SHOW, AS I JUST DESCRIBED, SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. BUT MAYBE SOME MORNING STORMS START TO FIRE AS SOON AS WE’RE GETTING TO SUNRISE. BUT THE FOG WILL OBSCURE THAT AS EVERYBODY HAS SEEN THAT FOG START TO FORM AND JUST CONFIRM WITH THE DATA THAT WE’VE GOT THICK AND DENSE FOG ALL NIGHT TONIGHT. BE REALLY, REALLY CAREFUL. THE CAUSEWAY TWIN SPANS. IT LOOKS TO BE THE BONNIE. KERRY IS THE WORST OF IT RIGHT NOW. 60S TO START OFF TOMORROW MORNING. AND THE LEVEL THREE RISK FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH SHORE. LEVEL TWO AND A LEVEL ONE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. WE CALL THOSE ENHANCED SLIGHT AND MARGINAL. WHAT DOES THIS REALLY MEAN. THOSE ARE ELEVATED RISKS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS, WHICH IS WHY WE’VE ALREADY MADE IT AN ALERT DAY. HERE’S THE STORM POTENTIAL. SOME MORNING STORMS HERE, BUT THEY’RE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG BY ABOUT 2:00 IN THE NORTH SHORE. WE DO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS TRYING TO POP UP AND GET GOING. BUT AFTER 6 P.M., THE MAIN ROUND OF STORMS COMING IN NORTH SHORE RIVER PARISHES FIRST, AND THEN AS WE GET 8 TO 10:00, WE SEE THOSE STORMS COMING IN NEW ORLEANS. HEFTY STORMS AROUND PONCHATOULA TO HAMMOND, EVEN MAYBE CAREER IN POPLARVILLE. AND THEN AS WE GO TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THE STORMS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO GO AWAY. SO THE TIMING FOR MOST OF US AFTER 6 P.M. TOMORROW, THAT’S WHERE THE WORST OF THE STORMS COULD BE HERE, STILL WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ONE, TWO AND THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. IT IS WARM AND HUMID AND BREEZY HERE TOO, ADDING THE ENERGY TO THE ATMOSPHERE SO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL TOP MY THREAT LIST. WE EVEN HAVE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL OF THE SIZE OF ONE INCH OR LARGER, BUT THE TORNADO THREAT IS STILL ELEVATED. IT’S NOT AT A HIGH THREAT, BUT IT IS STILL THERE. SO THE NORTH SHORE REALLY NEEDS TO BE ON GUARD. REALLY WATCH THE ELEVATED TORNADO RISK IN NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS. BESIDES, THE TORNADO RISK ARE EXPECTED TO, WHICH IS WHY IT’S THE WDSU FIRST WARNING WEATHER ALERT DAY. METEOROLOGIST JIM STEIN COMING IN. I’LL GIVE HIM A HAND. METEOROLOGIST RAVEN RICHARD JOINS IN THE AFTERNOON EVENING. ONCE THEY’RE DONE ON SATURDAY. THE STORMS, THAT IS. WE’RE DOWN TO 72 FOR SAINT SUNDAY AND LESS HUMID. SHOU

Severe storms are possible in the New Orleans weather forecast through Saturday

Threats of heavy rain, lightning, strong winds, large hail, and tornadoes are possible

Updated: 10:28 PM CST Dec 27, 2024

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a severe weather outlook for portions of our area on Saturday. The WDSU First Warning Weather Team has identified Saturday as a Weather ALERT Day for the threat of severe storms.One round of severe storms passed through early Friday morning, including a confirmed tornado in St. Tammany Parish between Audubon and Talisheek. Saturday will be our likeliest chance of possible severe weather where parts of the Northshore are already under a level 3 out of 5, or Enhanced risk for severe storms with threats of severe winds over 58 mph, large hail of 1″ in size or larger, and possible tornadoes.Notice that Greater New Orleans is under a level 2 out of 5 categories, or Slight Risk for possible severe weather, while the coast is under a level 1, marginal risk for severe storms.In these scenarios, most of the worst of the severe weather should stay well north of us in Northern Louisiana and Mississippi. However, the Northshore is where storms are likely to fire up first, then track into Mississippi providing a brief window where storms could quickly reach severe limits possibly producing a tornado or two.The latest data show it’s after 6 PM where the main cluster of storms will enter the Northshore and pose the greatest risk of severe weather.These storms are forecast to move southeast and could impact the New Orleans metro late Saturday night.The greatest risk for severe weather will be locally heavy rain, followed by strong winds over 58 mph, then large hail 1″ in size or larger, and a few tornadoes.The biggest takeaways are knowing the Northshore has the highest chance for severe weather on Saturday. I do expect numerous strong to severe storms and the tornado risk is elevated for us.Right now, it looks like most of the South Shore south of I-10 is under the least threat from strong to severe storms. However, everyone needs to monitor this evolving forecast closely in case location and timing of storms change.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a severe weather outlook for portions of our area on Saturday. The WDSU First Warning Weather Team has identified Saturday as a Weather ALERT Day for the threat of severe storms.

One round of severe storms passed through early Friday morning, including a confirmed tornado in St. Tammany Parish between Audubon and Talisheek.

Saturday will be our likeliest chance of possible severe weather where parts of the Northshore are already under a level 3 out of 5, or Enhanced risk for severe storms with threats of severe winds over 58 mph, large hail of 1″ in size or larger, and possible tornadoes.

Notice that Greater New Orleans is under a level 2 out of 5 categories, or Slight Risk for possible severe weather, while the coast is under a level 1, marginal risk for severe storms.

In these scenarios, most of the worst of the severe weather should stay well north of us in Northern Louisiana and Mississippi. However, the Northshore is where storms are likely to fire up first, then track into Mississippi providing a brief window where storms could quickly reach severe limits possibly producing a tornado or two.

The latest data show it’s after 6 PM where the main cluster of storms will enter the Northshore and pose the greatest risk of severe weather.

These storms are forecast to move southeast and could impact the New Orleans metro late Saturday night.

The greatest risk for severe weather will be locally heavy rain, followed by strong winds over 58 mph, then large hail 1″ in size or larger, and a few tornadoes.

The biggest takeaways are knowing the Northshore has the highest chance for severe weather on Saturday. I do expect numerous strong to severe storms and the tornado risk is elevated for us.

Right now, it looks like most of the South Shore south of I-10 is under the least threat from strong to severe storms. However, everyone needs to monitor this evolving forecast closely in case location and timing of storms change.