NFL Player Prop Picks for Week 17 Saturday Tripleheader: Antonio Gibson

We have 3 games on Saturday in Week 17, starting with Chargers vs. Patriots.

I will have an NFL player prop pick for every game, starting with a rushing over in Foxborough this afternoon. This file will be updated for the other two games today.

Let’s get straight into it.

NFL Player Props: Saturday Week 17

Rhamondre Stevenson’s fumbling issues continued last week as he had his sixth fumble and third lost fumble. Patriots head coach Jarod Mayo had benched him earlier in the season due to fumbling issues and hinted at the possibility this week.

I think the most likely scenario is that Mayo continues to use Stevenson as the Patriots’ lead back and let him simply prove that the six fumbles so far are an anomaly, especially considering he had only fumbled four total times in his first three NFL seasons.

However, there is still a chance that Mayo tries to prove a point and we see Antonio Gibson get the start and more work as a result, giving him some nice upside.

I’m still projecting Gibson to get his normal workload but show some value on his over due to the matchup. The Chargers run defense has been a bit vulnerable as of late, especially on outside runs on which they’ve allowed the third-highest explosive run rate. That sets up well for Gibson, who rushes outside at the 13th highest rate.

Gibson should probably do so more often considering he has the third-highest rushing yards over expected per attempt among RBs (NextGenStats) on outside runs. He’s also averaging 4.4 yards after contact (on all runs), which ranks second in the league. That allows him to overcome one of the worst offensive lines in the league to average 4.5 yards a rush this season.

The Chargers have allowed the third-most yards after contact in the league, making this a matchup I think sets him up for a pretty efficient game.

I’m projecting Gibson for closer to 35.5 rush yds with around a 60% chance to clear 28.5. I’m assuming Stevenson sees his usual role here, but there is some built in upside if Stevenson has a lighter workload due to recent fumbles, or if he were to fumble again early in the game.

This is a wild prop to project, and I’m rolling the dice on his under

S Tony Jefferson has played three games in the last four weeks and racked up eight, four and seven tackles so far. His snap counts were 67%, 53%, and 100% for those three games. He also faced one of the easiest schedules over that stretch and in the eight-tackle game, he only played 67% of the snaps against the Chiefs, but the Chargers defense faced 81 plays that week.

Last week, Jefferson racked up seven tackles in a full-time role with Elijah Molden out. Not only is Molden back in the lineup here, but CB Cam Hart also returns to the lineup. I think that makes the secondary crowded enough where I’m projecting Jefferson closer to a 60-65% snap rate.

While his tackle rate has been impressive, I think it comes back down to earth a bit here against a more average opponent for tackles to safeties. I’m projecting Jefferson closer to 4.1 tackles with around a 60% chance to stay under 4.5.

This is one with a wide range of outcomes, though, and it’ll be clear based on his early playing time which side of this total was the correct one.

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