North Texas vs Texas State Prediction and Picks — First Responder Bowl

One of the last games of bowl season kicks off on Friday as the North Texas Mean Green (6-6) and Texas State Bobcats (7-5) square off in the First Responder Bowl at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas.

Opt-outs and transfers are always important to track for bowl games, and both teams are dealing with some serious attrition. My North Texas vs. Texas State predictions and college football picks for Friday, January 3 take a closer look at both rosters heading into this contest and explain why we’re in for a high-scoring affair.

North Texas vs Texas State prediction and best bet

My best bet
Over 61.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

Before we get any further, let’s first review the absences for both sides. 

The North Texas Mean Green will be without its starting quarterback, leading receiver, starting tight end, and starting center. There will be other rotational players absent, but the biggest losses of all are quarterback Chandler Morris (3,774 passing yards and 31 touchdowns) and receiver DT Sheffield (822 receptions and 11 touchdowns), who were essential to this team’s success. 

The Texas State Bobcats will be without starting running back Ismail Mahdi, and it’s been reported that starting quarterback Jordan McCloud likely won’t see much action. Two starting defensive tackles and a starting cornerback are in the portal, so the defense may suffer from the fallout. 

Don’t expect a big drop-off from the Bobcats offensively. Head coach G.J. Kinne is an offensive guru whose team averaged 37.1 ppg while ranking 16th in success rate. 

There should be openings galore against a faulty North Texas defense that surrendered a whopping 34.5 ppg and allowed 456.6 total yards per game on 6.1 yards per play. The Mean Green are equally beatable on the ground (102nd in EPA per rush, 106th in rushing success rate) and in the air (97th in EPA per pass). 

If McCloud does indeed play limited snaps, it’ll likely be a showcase game for freshman Brad Jackson. The dual threat looked electric in limited playing time this year, rushing 22 times for 164 yards and four touchdowns, which is good for a healthy 7.5 yards per attempt. 

The Mean Green get little to no push up front (109th in line yards, 114th in stuff rate) and aren’t likely to be in the backfield (128th in front-seven havoc). Despite the absence of Mahdi, the Bobcats have a deep group of running backs that includes three former starters, so the ground game should run wild.

North Texas’ offense faces an uncertain near future in this game, but Eric Morris is an “offense-first, offense-second” kind of head coach and will likely have a plan in place. Texas State allows too many big plays (107th in explosiveness) and will be without a few starters against one of the most explosive offenses in the country (fourth in explosiveness). 

There should be plenty of pace in this game as North Texas ranks third in tempo while Texas State isn’t far behind at 27th. 

Give me the Over in a game between two coaches known for the virtuosity on the offensive side of the ball. 

North Texas vs Texas State same-game parlay (SGP)

Over 60.5

North Texas +13.5

There’s a lot of uncertainty in this game due to the absences on both sides. In a game like that, I’d rather be taking points than laying them, so give me North Texas +13.5. 

This is the biggest spread North Texas has seen all season despite facing quality teams like Memphis and Texas Tech. It doesn’t seem like the McCloud news has become common knowledge because this is an enormous spread for a game that will likely feature two backup freshman quarterbacks. 

Texas State had a lot of hype this year but ultimately fell short of expectations. The Bobcats should win this game and are the better team on paper, but it’s hard to trust either team’s motivation level, and therefore I’ll take the Mean Green to keep things within the number. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

More bowl game picks and odds from Covers

North Texas vs Texas State odds

North Texas vs Texas State live odds

North Texas vs Texas State opening odds

• North Texas vs. Texas State spread: Texas State -7.5
• North Texas vs. Texas State moneyline: North Texas +260, Texas State -350
• North Texas vs. Texas State Over/Under: 67.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

North Texas vs Texas State spread and Over/Under analysis

• Texas State has cashed the 1Q Over in eight of its last 10 games. That number currently sits at 14 with +105 odds to the Over at BetMGM Sportsbook.
• Texas State is 4-1 O/U in its last five games.
• North Texas is 5-1 O/U in its last six games away from home.

North Texas vs Texas State betting trend to know

Both teams have trended toward the Over with identical 8-4 O/U records. Find more college football betting trends for North Texas vs Texas State.

North Texas vs Texas State game info

North Texas vs Texas State latest injuries

Looking for who’s opted out of this game? Check out our updated college football bowl game opt-out tracker.

North Texas vs Texas State weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Pages related to this topic