Potential encirclement in Velyka Novosilka prompts questions about last-ditch withdrawal strategy

Thrusting forward with their vast manpower advantage, Russian troops are gradually penetrating Ukrainian defenses on the western edge of Donetsk Oblast and are close to capturing Velyka Novosilka.

Located about 15 kilometers east of the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the vital road-junction village was once home to around 5,000 people. It is now facing a similar fate to other Donbas strongholds, where Ukraine’s delayed withdrawals resulted in avoidable casualties, according to military experts.

Russian troops appear to have cut into the center of Velyka Novosilka, likely dividing the town into two and trapping Ukrainian troops in the south, according to Pasi Paroinen at the Finland-based open-source intelligence organization Black Bird Group. Paroinen said on Jan. 25 that the southern pocket appears to have just fallen, with Ukrainians likely holding onto Velyka Novosilka’s northwestern areas and Russia expected to complete the capture in “days.”

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed on Jan. 24 that its troops had planted a Russian flag in the center of Velyka Novosilka and that they had split the town in two, cutting off Ukrainian forces.

It is unclear how many Ukrainian troops were trapped inside the southern pocket in Velyka Novosilka, but it could be around two or three battalions, Paroinen said.

He added that, given the dire manpower situation in Ukraine, these battalions were likely depleted, with only a few hundred troops remaining in total.

“The question is if it’s closer to a thousand or closer to a few hundred, and considering how bad the manpower situation is, it’s probably going to be closer to several hundred,” Paroinen told the Kyiv Independent, adding that it is “purely a rough estimate” due to the lack of official information.  

Ukrainian military spokesman Viktor Trehubov said on Jan. 23 that the risk of encirclement persists for Ukrainian troops in the Velyka Novosilka area, as Russia is attempting to cut off routes into the town with heavy fire. He claimed that Ukraine’s military has the situation under control and is working to prevent encirclement.

“Velyka Novosilka is currently in a difficult situation,” Trehubov said on television, acknowledging that the town’s topography, such as the narrow Mokri Yaly River, further complicates the defense.

As Ukraine tries to hold onto the Donetsk Oblast strongholds, no matter how close Russian troops are to capturing them, more Ukrainian soldiers and Western experts are raising concerns about the cost of such decisions.

As Russians inch closer to Pokrovsk, civilians in the area are left with a choice — stay under fire or leave life behind

BILOZERSKE, Donetsk Oblast — Less than 30 kilometers north of embattled Pokrovsk, a market was in full swing in the town of Bilozerske. Meters away, however, a crowd has gathered in front of a building, nervously awaiting the doors to open. Tensions were visibly mounting as the doors remained close…

Similarly to the situation unfolding in Velyka Novosilka, exhausted Ukrainian troops defending the town of Avdiivka — located just outside Russian-occupied Donetsk — were left behind in and around the town, multiple surviving soldiers told the Kyiv Independent in February 2024.

Two soldiers from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, which is currently defending Velyka Novosilka and facing a similar fate, have recounted how they had to leave behind dozens of their wounded comrades in order to increase their own chances of survival.

If Russia captures Velyka Novosilka, it will be its first notable victory in 2025.

Russian troops have been on the offensive for more than a year, capturing long-time Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk Oblast, including Avdiivka, Vuhledar, Selydove, and Kurakhove in 2024.

Elsewhere on the front line, Russian troops are gradually pushing Ukrainian forces out of the salient that they control in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Meanwhile, the city of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast is facing another Russian offensive.

Russia’s imminent seizure of Velyka Novosilka comes about a year and a half after Ukraine began a counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, when it tried to liberate villages along the Mokri Yaly River. The furthest they advanced was to the village of Urozhaine, about 10 kilometers south of Velyka Novosilka.

Now the picture is entirely different, with Russia reclaiming all the villages and threatening to advance further.

Velyka Novosilka’s fall could impact the situation in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, as only open fields lie beyond the village, according to Serhiy Hrabskyi, a retired Ukrainian colonel and military analyst.

But he stressed that it took a long time for Russia to finally come close to capturing Velyka Novosilka, and that holding onto the village makes sense because it is exhausting Moscow’s resources that could be used elsewhere.

“(Russian troops) are attacking only on one relatively narrow front line, this is the price of holding on,” Hrabskyi told the Kyiv Independent.

Russia has captured Vremivka, a village just southwest of Velyka Novosilka and then Novyi Komar, a village to its north, gradually cutting off supply routes for Ukrainian troops, Hrabskyi said. He stressed that the sharp contrast in manpower leverage has allowed Moscow to gradually advance despite the cost, and that it is “impossible” to prevent it.

Russian tactics remain unchanged, relying on the continuous deployment of small groups of five to seven assault soldiers until enough troops are gathered to properly advance on a nearby Ukrainian position.

They accumulate 20, 30, or even 50 people for certain positions, and it can last for weeks — then this group moves forward,” he told the Kyiv Independent. “Imagine being two people in a trench with 50 Russian soldiers storming toward you.”

Ukraine’s new Kursk push brings minor gains, raising concerns over limited resources

Since the new push in Russia’s Kursk Oblast in early January, Ukraine has made small gains and managed to capture the first North Korean prisoners of war in the area but experts have raised concerns about Kyiv’s use of limited resources while fierce battles rage elsewhere. The assessment

Ukrainian troops should withdraw earlier to prevent encirclements, Paroinen from Black Bird Group said. He called the situation in Velyka Novosilka “a completely self-inflicted situation” caused by Ukrainian mismanagement.

Either Ukraine’s top military leadership is unable to comprehend the brutal reality on the ground, or it is “way too slow at making these difficult decisions, like, for example, giving up a village,” he said.

“This situation could have been foreseen for months,” Paroinen argued, stressing that the Russian advance had slowed down for the past two months, possibly due to winter weather conditions or potential resource exhaustion.

“The situation has already been such for a week or so, ever since the Russians got into Vremivka,” he added in reference to the potential encirclement. “At that point, it was a done deal.”