Previewing UVA basketball’s rivalry game against Virginia Tech

The Virginia Cavaliers men’s basketball team scored 80 points for the first time all season as they beat the Miami Hurricanes 82-71 on Wednesday. With the win, UVA is back in the ACC Tournament field! They’re currently 13th in the conference, with a 10-11 overall record (3-7 in the ACC). And sitting one spot above the ‘Hoos is none other than Mike Young and the Virginia Tech Hokies (9-12, 4-6 in the ACC).

The Hokies lost their entire rotation from last season. I’m not exaggerating. Eight of their top nine scorers are gone, including multi-year starters Sean Pedulla, Hunter Catoor, and Lynn Kidd. The only returner who contributed at all last season is Mylyjael Poteat, who is now the team’s second leading scorer.

Because of this, Tech was picked to finish 14th in the ACC Preseason Poll. Expectations were low for Mike Young’s team, and they’re likely on their way to missing the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season. Young’s seat is heating up.

No matter how ugly things are in Charlottesville and Blacksburg, this rivalry always brings out intensity and iconic moments when these two teams face twice each season.

Here are three things to know, two players to watch, and one prediction for Saturday afternoon’s game at JPJ.

Time: Saturday, February 1st at 4:00 ET

Watch: ACCN

Three Things to Know

Six years ago, it looked UVA and Tech might take over the ACC…things change fast

The year is 2018. Virginia is the No. 2 ranked team in the country with a 23-1 record as they host Virginia Tech. The Hokies are 17-7, in need of a statement win to solidify their NCAA Tournament resume. A defensive rock-fight ends up 49-49 at the end of regulation. With six seconds left in overtime, Tech’s Kerry Blackshear makes a put-back layup to win the game for the Hokies, 61-60, stunning a sold-out JPJ crowd.

While the loss devastated Virginia fans, it seemed like the two programs were forging the second-best rivalry in the ACC, with head coaches Tony Bennett and Buzz Williams in it for the long haul. Just two years later, after his best season with the Hokies when they earned a four-seed in the NCAA Tournament and were inches away from beating Duke in the Sweet Sixteen, Williams left to take the head coaching job at Texas A&M (Virginia swept the Hokies that year, including one of the most perfect games played at JPJ, an 81-59 butt-whopping).

And, as we all know, NIL and the transfer portal became too much for Bennett, and he stepped down prior to the 2024-25 season.

The once-promising programs have spiraled down to the pit of the ACC, alongside teams like Boston College and Georgia Tech (some pretty unpleasant company). Both teams may have new coaches in the next few years, as they look to rebuild their programs and restore this historic rivalry.

Tech has turnover troubles

Tony Bennett taught Virginia fans the importance of protecting the basketball. His teams were consistently top 10 in lowest turnover rate. In the first season without Bennett, Virginia has dropped all the way down to 196th in turnover percentage (17.5%).

Somehow, the Hokies are much worse. They turn the ball over on more than 20% of their possessions (321st in Division 1). That means that one in every five possessions, they aren’t even getting a shot attempt up. Point guard is a major weakness for the Hokies, particularly since they lost veteran ball-handlers Sean Pedulla and Hunter Catoor.

Not only do the Hokies not take care of the ball, they also can’t force turnovers. They’re 242nd in turnover-percentage defense. They don’t produce steals or blocks.

Tech is basically like an NFL team that throws two picks and coughs up two fumbles each game, while their defense comes up with absolutely nothing. If Virginia had last year’s personnel — featuring turnover-forcing monsters Reece Beekman and Ryan Dunn — they’d win this game with ease. But the Cavaliers don’t force turnovers either. At the end of the day, whichever team can break their statistical trends and win the turnover battle will likely win the game.

These two teams are very similar

Virginia and Virginia Tech are similar in a lot of ways, not just because they’re from the same state and near the bottom of the ACC standings.

Stylistically, both teams play at a slow tempo, rarely scoring on fast breaks and taking the time to run lengthy, half-court sets. Mike Young loves to design creative sets to get his shooters open for threes, often involving multiple off-ball screens and passes. Each team’s offensive strength is their three-point shooting (Virginia shoots 37.4 %, Tech shoots 36.3 %). Neither team gets to the free-throw line, and they both struggle to score inside.

Roster-wise, these are two of the youngest teams in the ACC. Mike Young’s squad is especially Young (obvious pun). The Hokies start two sophomores and a freshman, which is pretty rare in the era of the transfer-portal and fifth-years.

Slow tempo and youth could make for a pretty ugly game, but I’m banking on both teams to hit enough threes to keep it interesting.

Two Players to Watch

Forward Tobi Lawal (No. 1)

Tech’s leading scorer is a 6-foot-8 junior from London. He was a valuable bench piece for Ryan Odom and VCU last season (Odom is a name to track as a candidate for the Virginia job). In a starting role this season, Lawal leads the Hokies in scoring and rebounding (12.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game).

He’s a great athlete with long arms and an incredible vertical. Lawal is at his best catching the ball on the wing and slashing to the basket. He’s not a great jump-shooter, but he’ll hit the open three (18/40 from three on the season). Lawal is a force in transition after a steal or block, and he’s a surprisingly capable passer and cutter.

The most important thing for Virginia will be to box him out, keeping him off the offensive glass. If they can limit his easy second chance opportunities, it should be hard for the Hokies to score.

Forward Mylyjael Poteat (No. 34)

Poteat is the lone impact returner from last year’s Virginia Tech team. The 6-foot-9, 260 pound senior is a pure paint beast. He’s the Hokies best screener, and frequently gets the ball back on pick-and-rolls, where he slams down backboard-shaking dunks like a baby Shaquille O’Neal. Here’s an example from last season:

Poteat’s averaging 10 points per game, and pretty much everything comes from the paint.

If UVA’s bigs don’t put a body on him, then Poteat will Eat (even more obvious pun). He’s got slow feet on defense, and isn’t much of a rim-protector. Virginia should still look to draw him away from the basket with high ball-screens to create mismatches with quicker guards.

One Prediction

This is the final game of the easiest four-game stretch in Virginia’s schedule. They went 2-1 in the first three games, with wins over Boston College and Miami as well as an embarrassing loss to Notre Dame.

The road only gets harder, and Sanchez’s team can’t afford to drop winnable games like this one if they are to make the ACC Tournament field. The ‘Hoos are favored by five points on KenPom, and I think that’s how the game will end up. The status of Elijah Saunders and Andrew Rohde is worth monitoring, as they’re probably two of Virginia’s three best players and they were sidelined last game against Miami with injuries.

If those two play, I think Virginia’s guards should be able to get into the paint with ease. Both teams can hit the three-ball, so UVA has to win that duel. I’d bet on McKneely over nearly any other shooter in the country.

Virginia 63, Virginia Tech 57