Previewing Virginia basketball’s matchup with NC State

Happy Holidays Wahoo fans! After an eight-day hiatus, the Virginia Cavaliers men’s basketball team (7-5) is back in action with their first home ACC game of the year against the NC State Wolfpack (8-4).

Although we haven’t even reached 2025 yet, this matchup already feels like a must-win if the ‘Hoos intend to rescue their season and keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Fortunately, Kevin Keatts NC State team is susceptible.

The Wolfpack played a difficult non-conference schedule, and it didn’t do them any favors. They lost to Purdue, BYU, and Texas in consecutive games, before losing to Kansas a few weeks later. But they’re still 1-0 in the ACC with a 10-point win over Florida State.

All in all, it should be a fairly even matchup for Virginia against a middle-of-the-pack ACC team. The result of this game will tell us a lot about where UVA stands in the ACC, and where our expectations should be for the rest of 2025.

Here are three things to know, two players to watch, and a prediction for Virginia vs NC State on New Year’s Eve.

Time: Tuesday, December 31 at 12:00 PM EST

Watch: ESPN2

Three Things to Know about NC State

Last Year’s Cinderella Squad is gone

In case you forgot (although I’m sure you didn’t), NC State’s miraculous run in March was the story that captivated college basketball fans at the end of last season. After finishing 10th in the ACC regular season with a 17-14 record, NC State rattled off five wins in five days to win the ACC Tournament, the first time that feat had ever been accomplished.

Oh and they did this against Virginia along the way (avert your eyes if you need to).

Michael O’Connell’s game-tying shot against Virginia continued a magical run that lasted until the Final Four (including wins over rivals North Carolina in the ACC Tournament Championship and Duke in the Elite Eight).

It was a run for the ages, but nearly ever impact player from that team is gone. Big man DJ Burns — a walking refrigerator with ballerina feet — was the star of the show, but he’s gone now (phew). Their leading scorer DJ Horne is also gone, as well as former Virginia transfer Casey Morsell and starting forward Mohammed Diarra.

Their only significant returners are guard Jayden Taylor and forward Ben Middlebrooks, who are playing much bigger roles this season.

They struggle to make threes

The Virginia defense’s kryptonite is a team that gets hot from three. It feels like all too often that the ‘Hoos blow a double digit lead in the blink of an eye because they miss a few shots and give up open threes on the other end.

Well at least this NC State team isn’t taking or making a lot of threes. They rank 233rd in Division 1 in three-point percentage (32.0%), and just 23.4% of their total points scored come from three-pointers, which ranks 344th in the country.

So how do they score points? They take care of the basketball, and they make you cough it up.

NC State wants to force turnovers

The Wolfpack defense might not trap and apply full court pressure like they used to, but Kevin Keatts still wants to create chaos on the defensive side of the floor. This year’s team struggles to protect the paint, but if you’re careless with the ball around the perimeter — like the ‘Hoos have been this season — they will capitalize.

Defenders frequently jump passing lanes, swipe at ball-handlers, and harass three-point shooters. On the season, they cause turnovers on 21.7% of possessions (31st in the nation), and they’re allowing opponents to shoot just 28.5% from three (24th in the nation). On top of that, they take care of the basketball on offense.

Protecting the ball on offense, forcing turnovers on defense, and defending the three, all key ingredients for a winning basketball team. Virginia will need to have solved some of its point guard issues over the Holiday break if they’re going to hold their own against NC State’s defense.

Two Players to Watch

G Marcus Hill (#10)

NC State’s leading scorer (12.6 ppg) is a senior transfer from Bowling Green, who spent his first two years of college basketball dominating at the JUCO level. The 6-foot-4 combo guard led the MAC in scoring last season averaging 20.5 points per game.

Hill’s a lefty shooter, but he’s excellent at driving to the rim on either side, finishing with his right or left hand through contact. He’s got an elite first step, and uses his length and athleticism to beat opposing guards off the bounce. He’s a poor outside shooter (just 4/17 from three this year), but he makes up for it with his craftiness in the paint.

Hill’s also got good elevation on his shot, and he uses it to hit contested mid-range pull ups so you still have to respect his jumper.

F Ben Middlebrooks (#34)

Middlebrooks is a familiar face from NC State’s cinderella run last year, as the 6-foot-10 senior forward played a vital role as the sixth man for the Wolfpack down the stretch. DJ Burns stole the spotlight, but Middlebrooks exceptional interior defense is a major reason Burns was able to stay on the court.

He gritted and grinded against bigger and more talented centers on defense, fighting for every last rebound on both ends of the floor. His mobility allowed him to switch onto guards at times as well, making him an essential piece to the Wolfpack’s winning formula. And he scored when they needed him to.

This season, Middlebrooks is a starter averaging 9.8 points per game and leading the team in blocks (1.7 per game). He’ll likely see a lot of Elijah Saunders in the paint, and that matchup could determine the outcome of the game.

One Prediction

On paper, this matchup is about as even as it gets. NC State has played slightly better basketball this season, but the ‘Hoos are at home and probably have the more talented roster. At this point in the season, it’s hard to predict a Virginia win over a high-major opponent with confidence, but I think Virginia is due for a well-rounded game where they shoot and defend at a solid clip for forty minutes.

I think Virginia controls the boards and takes care of the basketball better than they have all season. Additionally, McKneely hits four triples and leads the ‘Hoos in scoring as he finally gets revenge for last year’s ACC Tournament collapse (he’ll make all of his free throws this time).

Virginia 66, NC State 57