Putin is creating conditions to violate any future peace agreements with Ukraine – ISW

Vladimir Putin. Photo: Getty Images

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s statements about the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government and a possible future peace deal could become a tool to justify violating any agreements with Ukraine.

Source: ISW

Quote: “Putin claimed that any peace agreement that Russia and Ukraine conclude before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rescinds his 2022 decree will be invalid. However, even if the Ukrainian side agrees to cancel this decree, Putin is likely to find new reasons to violate the agreements.”

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Details: ISW notes that the Kremlin is creating a legal basis for ignoring future agreements by manipulating false interpretations of Ukrainian law.

Putin has already stated that Zelenskyy has lost legitimacy by not holding elections in 2024 during martial law and that the Verkhovna Rada is allegedly the only legitimate branch of government. At the same time, he calls for unconstitutional actions that can be used to declare this body “illegitimate” to justify his demands for a complete regime change in Kyiv and his unwillingness to negotiate with the Ukrainian authorities.

Such statements give Putin room for manipulation, analysts say. Even if agreements are reached, Russia could quickly violate them, citing false accusations of invalid agreements or the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government. The Kremlin has used similar tactics before, violating the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015.

Quote: “Even if Zelenskyy or other parts of the Ukrainian government agreed to lift the decree banning negotiations with Putin, Putin would likely violate any peace or other agreement that he reaches with Ukraine under the false justification that such agreements are ‘invalid’ as long as he believes that he can achieve his maximalist war aims through military operations.”

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 29 January:

• Russian leader Vladimir Putin stated that Western military assistance remains vital to Ukraine’s ability to maintain its defence against Russian aggression.
• Putin’s long-standing theory of victory relies on the assumption that the West will abandon Ukraine, and only unwavering Western support and consistent deliveries of Western military assistance to Kyiv can force Putin to abandon his theory and accept the need to offer the concessions necessary for any resolution to the conflict acceptable to the US, Europe, and Ukraine.
• Putin indicated that he will not view any peace agreement with Ukraine as binding by claiming that the Ukrainian government is either unwilling or unable to rescind the 2022 Ukrainian presidential decree banning negotiations with Putin.
• Putin’s statements rejecting the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government and of a possible future peace agreement set conditions for Russia to justify violating any future agreements with Ukraine.
• Putin continues efforts to coerce US President Donald Trump into bilateral negotiations that exclude Ukraine, impose his desired negotiations framework on Trump, and compel Trump to inadvertently endorse ongoing Russian information operations about the illegitimacy of the current Ukrainian government.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike at the Russian oil refinery in Kstovo, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and reportedly hit a Russian arsenal in Tver Oblast on the night of 28-29 January.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) confirmed in a post on 29 January that Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik is the commander of the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near the Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, Robotyne, and Dnipro fronts.
• Volunteer recruitment rates in Moscow have dropped sharply, as Russian citizens grow increasingly unwilling to serve in Ukraine.

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