Quad 1 Chance for Tar Heels in ACC Restart

North Carolina (8-5, 1-0 ACC) at Louisville (8-5, 1-1 ACC)
Wednesday, Jan. 1 — 6 p.m.
Louisville, Ky. — KFC Yum! Center
TV: ACC Network (Jay Alter, Debbie Antonelli)
Radio: Tar Heels Sports Network (Jones Angell, Tyler Hansbrough)

Quotables

“The only thing that I focus on is that for this team to reach its full potential, we would have to be a really good defensive and rebounding team. I’ve been straightforward and direct with them from the start. I’ve also added one extra thing, and that’s taking care of the basketball. We only had seven turnovers (against Campbell). If we take care of the basketball, we get shots, and we’re a team that can make shots.” — coach Hubert Davis on Sunday night, after UNC’s 97-81 defeat of Campbell.

“We never worry about offense. We have so many talented scorers, so that’s never a worry. And just ending games, like the last four minutes of tight games. All of our losses were really close, and we flipped that around in the UCLA game, and we have confidence that we can flip that around now. We did so much film on those last couple minutes of every loss, so it’s like we know exactly what we want to do, and we know exactly how we want to play in those last minutes. And that’s what it’s going to come down to in the ACC, especially on road, against any team.” — UNC guard Elliot Cadeau, after the victory against Campbell.

Pregame Notes

RJ Davis Shoots Way into History: Fifth-year senior guard RJ Davis hit five 3-pointers in the win over Campbell, shooting into the top spot on UNC’s all-time 3-point list. He moved up to 303 made 3-pointers across his college career, surpassing Marcus Paige’s previous program record of 299 made 3-pointers. Davis finished with 23 points against the Camels on 53.3-percent shooting from the field (7-of-13) and 50-percent shooting from 3-point range (5-of-10). That’s the first time this season Davis has shot 50 percent or better from the field, and 40 percent or better on 3-pointers in the same game. Now, Davis needs 15 points to surpass former big man Armando Bacot for second place in all-time scoring at UNC.

Freshman guard Ian Jackson also continued his scoring surge. Jackson earned his first college starting assignment on Sunday night, with Seth Trimble sitting out due to an upper-body injury suffered in practice. Jackson produced a season-high 26 points against the Camels, and earned ACC Rookie of the Week honors for that performance. He’s shooting a team-best 41.7 percent from 3-point range (minimum five attempts).

Defensive Lapse Results in Metrics Slide: Carolina led Campbell 82-53 with less than six minutes remaining in the game on Sunday night. That 29-point lead for UNC was right on pace for the predicted final margin, as the Tar Heels were installed as 28½-point favorites by the oddsmakers. But defensive miscues down the stretch allowed the Camels to cut their final deficit down to 16 points. Campbell forward Colby Duggan pumped in a career-high 32 points, doubling his previous career best of 16 points. He reached that mark last season against Division III program Southern Virginia.

Though the sleepy finish didn’t cost UNC the game against Campbell, which checked in a lowly No. 310 in the NET rankings coming into the game, it did hurt Carolina’s rating in the metrics. The Tar Heels dropped six spots in the NET after the victory against the Camels, slipping from No. 32 to No. 38. UNC began this week as one of three teams ranked among the top 50 in the NET that had played seven Quad 1 games, along with Auburn (No. 1 in the NET) and Purdue (No. 37).

The NET (or NCAA Evaluation Tool) is one of the main metrics used when assigning the NCAA Tournament field. It accounts for margin of victory, strength of opponent and site of games played, among other factors. At this juncture, the Tar Heels have seven remaining all-important Quad 1 chances on their ACC league schedule — the pair of home-and-away games against Duke (No. 3 in the NET) and Pittsburgh (No. 11), next week’s home game against SMU (No. 30), and road games at Louisville (No. 60) and Clemson (No. 36). The Jan. 7 game against SMU, however, narrowly meets the top-30 threshold in order for a home contest to qualify as a Quad 1 game.

Looking at Louisville: The Cardinals have seen marked improvement this season, and are off to an 8-5 start under first-year coach Pat Kelsey. He came to Louisville after head-coaching stops at Winthrop (2012-21) and College of Charleston (2021-24). Kelsey’s teams have earned four NCAA Tournament berths (two apiece at each school). He’s the fifth all-time winningest coach in the Big South. At Louisville, Kelsey replaced Kenny Payne, who logged a dismal 12-52 record across his two seasons in charge of the Cardinals.

Louisville won five of its first six games this season, defeating Morehead State (by a 93-45 margin), Bellarmine (100-68), Winthrop (76-61), Indiana (89-61) and West Virginia (79-70). The only loss during the stretch came at home to now top-ranked and unbeaten Tennessee (77-55). All five of the Cardinals’ losses have come against teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25 — No. 12 Oklahoma (69-64), No. 24 Ole Miss (86-63), No. 4 Duke (76-65) and No. 10 Kentucky (93-85). The Cardinals have played the 21st-hardest schedule in the country, according to Ken Pomroy’s college basketball database. KenPom ranks UNC’s strength of schedule the seventh-hardest in the country behind Florida A&M, Mississippi Valley State, Memphis, Jackson State, Central Michigan and Alcorn State.

The last time out, Louisville needed some late-game heroics to escape with a 78-76 victory against Eastern Kentucky. Noah Waterman’s go-ahead layup with 1.2 seconds left gave the Cardinals a 77-76 lead, and that bucket proved to be the difference. Louisville was a 21½-point favorite in that game by the oddsmakers, but was unable to create separation from the visiting Colonels.

Roster Goes Through Portal Reconstruction: Kelsey and Co. overhauled Louisville’s roster through the portal, welcoming 12 transfer additions. It’s the largest transfer class in the country and ranked No. 27 nationally, according to 247Sports. The new additions include Waterman (from BYU), Frank Anselem-Ible (from Georgia) Chucky Hepburn (from Wisconsin), Aly Khalifa (from BYU), Kasean Pryor (from South Florida), Aboubacar Traore (from Long Beach State), J’Vonne Hadley (from Colorado), Terrence Edwards Jr. (from James Madison), Koren Johnson (from Washington), and three transfers from College of Charleston in Reyne Smith, Kobe Rogers and James Scott. The 6-foot-11, 275-pound Khalifa, a native of Egypt, is redshirting this year to fully recover from a knee injury.

Hepburn leads the way for Louisville, delivering 15.2 points, 5.2 assists and 2.8 steals per game. He ranks sixth in the country in total steals (36). Hepburn spent three seasons at Wisconsin, before joining the Cardinals this season. He earned All-Big Ten honorable mention twice, and was on the Big Ten’s all-defensive team last season. The JMU transfer Edwards is second on the team in scoring, supplying 14.7 points per game. He’s in his fifth season of college basketball. Edwards was the Sun Belt Player of the Year last season, averaging 17.2 points per game, and helped lead JMU to a 32-4 record and an appearance in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament.

Pryor (torn knee ligament) and Johnson (torn labrum) have suffered season-ending injuries already this season. Pryor was averaging 12 points and 6.1 rebounds per game for Louisville at the time of his injury. Johnson appeared in just two games this season, but logged 19.5 minutes of action per game in those contests. Their injuries essentially have reduced the Cardinals to a seven-man rotation.

No Shortage of 3-Point Attempts: Louisville certainly isn’t shy to let it fly from 3-point distance, firing up 32.5 attempts beyond the arc per game. That’s the fourth-most attempts in the country. But the high volume hasn’t exactly resulted in tremendous success. The Cardinals are shooting a mere 29.9 percent on 3-pointers, and all but three players on their roster are shooting below 30 percent. The lefty Smith is shooting a team-best 37.3 percent on 3-pointers, and has made 44 successful 3s this season. He made 292 total 3-pointers across his three years at College of Charleston.

The tendency to launch a high volume of outside shots is a common trait of Kelsey-coached teams. Last season, College of Charleston ranked third nationally in 3-point attempts, putting up 30.6 shots per game. Those shots, though, resulted in much better success, as the Cougars recorded 10.5 successful 3-pointers per game last season (eighth nationally). Across Louisville’s five losses this season, the Cardinals are shooting just 27.4 percent (47-for-171) beyond the 3-point arc.

Last Meeting: UNC beat Louisville 86-70 in the first half of league play last season. That victory was part of a stretch that saw the Tar Heels win their first nine ACC games.

RJ Davis provided a game-high 21 points, and added six assists and six rebounds. Bacot stuffed the stat sheet with 19 points, seven rebounds, five assists and three blocked shots. Jae’Lyn Withers, the Louisville transfer then in his first season at Carolina, contributed 15 points and 10 rebounds off the bench.

Series History: UNC leads the all-time series 20-7. The Tar Heels have won five straight games against the Cardinals, and seven of the last eight meetings dating to February 2019. On the road, Carolina holds a 4-3 edge on Louisville in games played at the KFC Yum! Center.

Wednesday night marks UNC’s fourth-ever game on Jan. 1. The Tar Heels lost at Butler on New Year’s Day in 1929 and at Maryland in 1943, before defeating Monmouth in Chapel Hill, N.C., on New Year’s Day in 2012, during coach Hubert Davis’ first season as an assistant with the Tar Heels.

Projected UNC Starters:
3 Elliot Cadeau (So., 6-1, 180) — 11.2 ppg, 6.2 apg, 3.3 rpg, 1.5 spg
4 RJ Davis (Gr., 6-0, 180) — 18.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1.4 spg
9 Drake Powell (Fr., 6-6, 195) — 6.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg
11 Ian Jackson (Fr., 6-4, 190) — 13.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg
13 Jalen Washington (Jr., 6-10, 235) — 6.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg

Projected Louisville Starters:
0 James Scott (So., 6-11, 220) — 6.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg
1 J’Vonne Hadley (Gr., 6-6, 215) — 10.2 ppg, 8 rpg
5 Terrence Edwards Jr. (Gr., 6-6, 205) — 14.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.3 apg
24 Chucky Hepburn (Sr., 6-2, 190) — 15.2 ppg, 5.2 apg, 3.5 rpg, 2.8 spg
93 Noah Waterman (Gr., 6-11, 230) — 7.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg

UNC Info
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Louisville Info
Schedule/Info
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