Ravens listed as 20-point favorites vs. Browns

With Baltimore needing a victory to win the AFC North and the Cleveland Browns sitting several key players, the Ravens are a 20-point favorite for Saturday’s divisional matchup as of Friday afternoon on ESPN BET.

It’s the largest spread in Ravens history and the biggest in the NFL since 2021, when the Arizona Cardinals (-20) beat the Houston Texans 31-5 in Week 7.

Baltimore can guarantee itself a division title and the No. 3 seed in the playoffs with a win Saturday, while Cleveland is fully out of postseason contention and is expected to start Bailey Zappe at quarterback. The Browns have ruled out running backs Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong, tight end David Njoku and cornerback Denzel Ward for the contest.

The Ravens opened as an 18.5-point favorites at ESPN BET (with some sportsbooks starting at -17.5) and jumped up to -20 upon the news Thursday that Zappe would get the nod. While a majority of the betting public is backing Cleveland, based on the number of tickets, many big money bettors appear to be supporting Baltimore, with BetMGM reporting 53% of the spread handle on the favorite; the sportsbook characterized it to ESPN as “good action both ways with the large spread.”

In the past 30 seasons, favorites of 20 or more points are just 3-6 against the spread, but the past two have covered. No favorite of 18 points or more has lost a game outright in the NFL since 1977, and if Baltimore loses straight up at -20 it will tie the largest outright upset in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN Research.

ESPN BET lists the Ravens as -8000 favorites to win the AFC North, with the Pittsburgh Steelers, who would take the division with a win over the Cincinnati Bengals and a Baltimore loss Saturday, listed at +2200. The Steelers held a majority of the bets and money to win the AFC North at the sportsbook as of Sunday.

Should Pittsburgh lose Saturday’s other AFC North showdown, it will open the door to the playoffs for the Bengals, as they need that win, as well as losses from the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins, to qualify. ESPN BET places the odds of that happening at +1100, but says it has been the most popular selection in that market by wagers and handle over the past two weeks.