Rune vs. Kecmanovic, De Minaur vs. Cerundolo

There are unseeded players all over the place in the top half of the Australian Open draw, including Miomir Kecmanovic. The Serb will try to keep his run going against Holger Rune, while Alex de Minaur faces Francisco Cerundolo.

Miomir Kecmanovic vs. (13) Holger Rune

Rune and Kecmanovic will be squaring off for the third time in their careers when they collide in round three of the Australian Open on Saturday. Although Kecmanovic is obviously the underdog in this one, he has played Rune tough in the past. They have split their two previous encounters; Kecmanovic prevailed 7-6(3), 6-2 on the indoor hard courts of Stockholm in 2022 before Rune won 1-6, 7-5, 6-3 the very next week in Stockholm.

This is another sneaky spot for Kecmanovic to find more success against Rune. The hard-court slams have been by far the 21-year-old Dane’s worst. He was won seven matches combined at the Aussie Open and U.S. Open compared to 17 total at the French Open and Wimbledon. On the other hand, Melbourne is by far Kecmanovic’s favorite spot of the four. The 51st-ranked Serb has reached the fourth round twice and has never advanced that far at any other major. Moreover, Kecmanovic is coming off a straight-set beatdown of Hubert Hurkacz, whereas Rune has been severely tested by both Zhizhen Zhang and Matteo Berrettini. Sound the upset alert.

Pick: Kecmanovic in 5

(31) Francisco Cerundolo vs. (8) Alex de Minaur

De Minaur went into the tournament as by far the host nation’s best hope to make a deep run; to say that nothing has changed through two rounds would be a gross understatement. The world No. 8 trounced his first two opponents–6-1, 7-5, 6-4 over Botic van de Zandschulp and 6-2, 6-4, 6-3 over Tristan Boyer. De Minaur is now 4-0 in the early stages of this season, having won his pair of United Cup matches in similarly dominant fashion.

Up next for the Aussie is what will surprisingly be a first-ever meeting with Cerundolo. Amazingly, the first week of this tournament has been even more routine for Cerundolo. In fact, nobody in the entire draw had an easier first two rounds than the Argentine. He benefited from two virtual byes, erasing a disinterested Alexander Bublik 7-6(1), 6-3, 6-2 before getting a second-set retirement from Facundo Diaz Acosta while leading 6-2, 1-0. Cerundolo is talented, but he rarely comes to play against higher-ranked opponents–with one exception being a five-set loss to Novak Djokovic at the 2024 French Open. Facing De Minaur in Australia is unlikely to be another exception.

Pick: De Minaur in 3