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Savannah public schools future enrollment declines can impact budget
The Savannah-Chatham County Public School System’s student enrollment has declined almost 5% since 2019.
The school district had a 20-day enrollment of 37,190 in fiscal year 2019 while its fiscal year 2025 10-day enrollment number was 35,428. Director of Budgeting Services Paige Cooley’s presentation to the Savannah-Chatham school board finance committee on Wednesday projected a slight incline to 35,528 in 2026. Projections for 2027 and 2028, however, show a steady dip to 35,378 students by 2028.
Cooley shared the National Center for Education Statistics data to highlight how the COVID-19 pandemic wrought a 3% drop in public school enrollment across the entire U.S. in 2020. Recovery of that loss has proven challenging for public schools across the country. Georgia as well as Chatham County have been no exceptions.
Birthrate declines, increased charter school interest and Savannah’s aging population all factored into Cooley’s enrollment projection calculations.
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Enrollment is a key factor in the Quality Basic Education (QBE) formula, which determines how much money Georgia’s public schools receive in state funding. Fewer students means less funding.
Savannah’s school board members have regularly lamented that the formula, created in 1985, is woefully outdated particularly regarding modern public education needs with regard to mental health counselors and newer technology. Until QBE is updated, Savannah-Chatham’s and other Georgia public school systems will be impacted by enrollment declines while estimating annual budgets.
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Nationally, a further 5% drop is projected between 2024-2031 in large part due to an ongoing U.S. birthrate decline. Carlton College Professor of Social Sciences wrote in his 2021 book, “The Agile College” that a “10% reduction in fertility following the Great Recession” has persisted since 2008.
Cooley highlighted Chatham County’s 10-year birthrate trends according to 2023 Georgia Department of Community Health Oasis Report. In 2017 the county reached a peak at 4,102 births before a steady decline set in through 2020 when 3,510 children were born. The 2020 children are now turning five years old and thus pre-K age, an important cohort for the school district to track. Beyond 2020, Chatham’s birthrate has fluctuated either up or down within 100 or so births.
School choice has also impacted public schools throughout the state. Cooley noted that over 80,000 more students across the U.S. opted to attend charter schools last year. The National Alliance for Public Charter Schools published the increase update in October 2024. Chatham County charters do not have to use the district’s payroll services, but Cooley said some do and, because of that, she has seen where charters have paid higher salaries for certain teachers with more training or specialized expertise, whereas the school district is limited by salary bands.
Compounding school choice, Cooley cited private school enrollment increases as well as the Georgia Promise Scholarship. Promise is a concern beyond next school year because the school voucher program could draw even more students away from public school options. Even without the Promise Scholarship impact, Cooley’s charts showed private school enrollment increases over the past few years. She did allow that the comparison between public and private schools is more “apples to oranges” since private school enrollment is less than one-fifth the size of public school numbers.
Cooley stressed that enrollment projections are estimates as Hyundai’s Ellabell, Georgia metaplant onboards more employees. The automaker has committed to hiring anywhere from 6,800 to 8,500 workers by 2031 as part of its economic development agreement with state and local authorities. Thousands more potential jobs at Hyundai suppliers could bring even more people, and their school-aged children, to Chatham County.
Joseph Schwartzburt is the education and workforce development reporter for the Savannah Morning News. You can reach him at JSchwartzburt@gannett.com and @jschwartstory84 on X.com or @jschwartstory atBlue Sky.
In recent years, the Savannah public school district has been facing a decline in enrollment numbers. This downward trend in student population can have a significant impact on the district’s budget and resources.
With fewer students enrolled, the school district may see a decrease in funding from the state, as much of the funding is based on student population. This can lead to budget cuts, staff layoffs, and a reduction in educational programs and services.
Furthermore, a decrease in enrollment can also result in underutilized school buildings and classrooms, leading to inefficiencies in resource allocation and maintenance costs.
To address this issue, the school district may need to explore strategies to attract and retain students, such as improving educational offerings, enhancing school facilities, and implementing targeted marketing and outreach campaigns.
It is crucial for the Savannah public schools to proactively address this enrollment decline to ensure the long-term financial sustainability and academic success of the district.
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- Savannah public schools
- Future enrollment declines
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- School budget planning
- Education funding
- Declining student enrollment
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- Public school enrollment trends
- Budget implications of declining enrollment
- School budget management
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