«Shakhtar» has a record low percentage chance of reaching the top 24 of the Champions League — 0.1% (Jan. 29, 2025) — dynamo.kiev.ua

Tonight, the names of all 24 teams that will enter the Champions League play-off round will be announced.

Photo: shakhtar.com

According to the Telegram channel “Bombardir”, “Shakhtar” has a record low percentage chance of entering the top 24 – 0.1%, while there is a 71% chance that “Manchester City” will avoid complete failure and progress further (calculations by Football Meets Data).

For the scenario to play out with a 0.1% chance, the Donetsk team needs to meet 4 out of 6 conditions:

1. “Shakhtar” beats “Borussia” D *by the required margin;
2. “Manchester City” does not beat “Brugge”;
3. “Dinamo” (Zagreb) does not beat “Milan”;
4. “Benfica” loses to “Juventus” *by the required margin;
5. “Sporting” loses to “Bologna” *by the required margin;
6. “Stuttgart” or PSG wins in their head-to-head match *by the required margin;

The current goal difference (for those who can finish with 10 points):

“Benfica” +2 (14:12);
PSG +2 (10:8);
“Sporting” +1 (12:11);
“Stuttgart” −1 (12:13);
“Shakhtar” −6 (7:13).

So, the relationship between the victory of the “miners” over “Borussia” and the losses of competitors must be for “Shakhtar”:

“Benfica” +9 (hypothetically ShD’s victory over “Borussia” 5:0 and “eagles” lost to “Juventus” 0:4);
PSG +8/9 (depending on the goals scored, 4:0 and 0:4 will suffice);
“Sporting” +7/8 (depending on the goals scored, hypothetically 3:0 and 0:4 will not suffice);
“Stuttgart” +6 (hypothetically 3:0 and 0:3 will suffice).