Snap’s stock has been stuck in a rut. Could a TikTok ban give it a boost?

Speculation over “where users will go after TikTok” has been mounting for weeks, as the uncertainty of a TikTok shutdown looms large. After the Supreme Court upheld its ban in a unanimous 9-0 decision announced this morning, the fate of the app seems likely to fall to incoming President Donald Trump, who told CNN he’ll “be making the decision.”

In the background, rival social-media companies have been working hard to make sure they are well positioned in the public’s conscience should TikTok’s 170 million American users suddenly have more free time — and among them is the embattled Snapchat, which launched a new ad campaign Wednesday to court creators.

Stuck in a rut

Snap’s push to cash in on TikTok’s exit comes as the company grapples with stagnating growth in the US and a stock price that’s been in the doldrums for more than 2.5 years.

Snap’s stock has been jumping up and down on every story, rumor, or whisper about TikTok’s fate: its shares dipped more than 5% yesterday after reports surfaced that the ban could be delayed.

Global appeal

According to a Variety report this week, Snapchat’s US downloads hit a record low in December, down 17% from the previous year. Indeed, more than half of Snap’s daily active users now hail from outside of North America and Europe.

While the growing total user base sounds promising, here’s the catch: rest-of-world users aren’t as valuable. In the latest quarter, Snap made just $1.09 per user in these regions, roughly one-eighth of the $8.54 earned per user in North America. In short, rest-of-world users aren’t as helpful in getting the company, which has posted consecutive net losses in all but one quarter since 2015, out of the red.

In a bid to invigorate its advertising sales, which make up more than 95% of its revenue, Snap recently launched two new ad formats in September. Then came December’s big play: a monetization program letting eligible creators earn ad revenue from their content on Spotlight, Snap’s TikTok-style short videos — where viewership shot up 25% year over year that month. If TikTok is banned, Snap execs will hope the Spotlight falls on them.