Snow now more likely in Gulf Coast next week as forecast shows rare cold front

(WEAR) — It’s rare for the Gulf Coast, but snow is officially in the forecast. There is now a 50%-70% chance for frozen precipitation. It might be mixed with rain, sleet and freezing rain but it will be cold enough for just plain snow.

Prior to this cold weather event, warm air and rain is forecast on Saturday. The rain Saturday will linger through the evening hours.

Cold air rushes in following the rain. Sunday highs will likely reach low 50s but it will never feel that warm with a wind gusting at 25 miles per hour (mph). The wind chill values will be even more brutal on Monday morning. With a north wind continuing, temps will be in the 20s Monday morning with wind chill values in the teens.

When it’s freezing cold on the Gulf Coast, usually the air is dry and skies are clear. In this rare circumstance, low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will send moisture into a cold pocket of air over the coast, likely resulting in snowfall.

Model data had been mixed on the possibility for snow but now models are in much better agreement, meaning snowfall is increasingly more likely for the northern Gulf Coast.

It is still dependent on the route the low takes. Whether is tracks more north or south. If the low moves farther north, the coastal zones will likely see more of a mixed frozen precipitation event rather than snow, with snow inland. If it moves south, this gives the better chance of snow across all areas. The variation in temperatures along the coast also will play a role in what kind of precipitation those areas will see.

Timing of this event looks to be as early as Tuesday morning, and end Tuesday night.

While it is difficult to forecast accumulation, and exact accumulation amounts are still being refined, probabilities of greater than 1″ of snow have increased across the entire area, increasing to as high as 60-70%. Odds of greater than 3″ have increased to 30-50% along, north, and west of the I-65 corridor with even 10-20% chances along the coast.

Regardless of what falls from the skies, temperatures will be dangerously cold for several days. An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for the area Sunday Evening through Monday morning.

What this means is that temperatures will be well below freezing, and wind chills will likely be in the single digits through the night hours. .Frostbite and hypothermia are likely if exposed to these temperatures. An extended period of freezing temperatures could cause ruptured water pipes.

Minimum wind chill values will be in the single digits Monday. Tuesday, and Wednesday mornings. Some areas may not rise above freezing on Tuesday.

As the forecast develops. we will know more and let you know what to expect.