Tag: ambitions

On Friday 8 November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky scheduled a call with the newly elected US president. To his surprise, sitting alongside Donald Trump throughout the 25-minute conversation was Elon Musk.

The Ukrainian president expressed his gratitude to the richest man in the world for providing vital satellite internet access to Ukraine through his company Starlink.

The rise of Elon Musk from electric car mogul to the world’s leader in satellite technology – is one of the billionaire tycoons lesser-known achievements.

The tech billionaire founded SpaceX in 2002, later announcing plans for Starlink in January 2015, and launched the first batch of 60 Starlink satellites in May 2019.

Incredibly, Starlink is now responsible for over half of all satellites in orbit. Serving as a telecommunications provider it provides wifi to areas with crumbling infrastructure, or where internet access is restricted by repressive regimes.

It can also be used to identify targets in warfare, guide missiles and is fast becoming essential for battlefield communications.

This dependence on Musk’s constellation of satellites has granted him unprecedented global influence, with more than 50 countries now relying on Starlink.

According to reports, some world leaders are now reluctant to criticise Musk, fearing that he could cut off their Starlink access at any moment.

Cutting off Ukraine

Musk’s conversation with Zelensky came after a major fall-out in March 2023. The Ukrainian government, which has described Starlink as the “blood of our entire communication infrastructure”, criticised Musk after learning he had reportedly sought to limit Starlink’s access for its forces near Russian-occupied Crimea.

In the 2023 biography on Elon Musk, later confirmed by the billionaire himself, it was claimed that he had blocked a Ukrainian attack on Russian-held Crimea by shutting off Starlink services to Ukraine. In response, Musk said SpaceX did not “deactivate anything” as such services had not been activated in the first place, and that if he had agreed to the request, SpaceX would be “complicit in a major act of war and conflict escalation”. But Musk presented the decision as his own, earning praise from top Russian officials, including former President Dmitry Medvedev.

“It [Starlink] does give Musk a great deal of influence” according to Dr Mark Hilborne, a senior lecturer in the School of Security Studies at King’s College London.

Without access to Starlink, he said, Ukraine has limited options for its command-and-control systems. “It has enabled the guidance of UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] and USVs [unmanned surface vehicles], and enabled other Ukrainian fighting capabilities…it has been crucial.”

Following the row with Ukraine, Musk asked the US government to take over funding of Kyiv’s use of the network, suggesting SpaceX was going to take a huge financial loss if it continued to provide Ukraine with his satellites. The Pentagon agreed to purchase the terminals for use in Ukraine, worth $400m over 12 months, according to a SpaceX letter reported by CNN.

Starlink’s role in the Ukraine war has raised significant concerns about the system’s vulnerabilities – and, crucially, the man in charge.

Privatising Space

The US military, especially the navy, has quietly become more dependent on satellite internet provided by SpaceX and Starlink. At the same time, media reports have suggested there have been communications between Musk, the head of both companies, and US adversary Russian President Vladimir Putin.  Musk, who has said such claims are unsubstantiated, posted on X last month that he is “going to find out who’s making these accusations and nuke them”.

Amid growing reports, Pentagon officials and military leaders have remained guarded on questions regarding Elon Musk’s relationship with the US Defence Department and the extent of Starlink’s integration within the military. However, two senior senators are calling for an investigation into Musk, his connections to the Pentagon, and his communications with Moscow.

Analysts trace the US government’s growing reliance on SpaceX to policy changes starting in 2015 with the Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act. Donald Trump’s 2016 directives shifted satellite development from Nasa to private companies. Since then, the US has become one of Musk’s biggest customers, paying SpaceX $15.4bn (£13bn) for its services.

This includes $3.6bn (£2.9bn) for the Defence Department, with his companies receiving 100 different contracts last year with 17 federal agencies. “Starshield” a classified extension of Starlink, also provides the US government with premium spy satellites an enable rapid surveillance of nearly any point on Earth, according to Reuters.

At the end of 2023, Donald Trump’s Space Force awarded Starshield a $70m (£55.6bn) contract. The US Space Force is the newest branch of the US military responsible for organising, training, and equipping space operations, including satellite defence and space exploration. Details on how the service plans to use Starshield are sparse.

In fact there is very little is known about Starshield. SpaceX has revealed some key aspects of the deal. For instance, this project will use the same type of broadband technology found in the company’s Starlink satellite constellation, yet will be geared towards government uses, particularly by the US military and its associated agencies.

The Starlink website says “Starshield leverages SpaceX’s Starlink technology and launch capability to support national security efforts.” 

Meanwhile, Nasa has paid $11.8bn (£9.4bn), mainly for SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets, which have launched around 6,000 Starlink satellites into orbit.

Starlink’s revenue is expected to jump from $1.4bn (£1.1bn) in 2022 to $6.6bn (£5.2bn) by 2024, and possibly reach $23bn (£18.3bn) by 2026, as public money fuels a business empire, that is growing on an inter-galactic scale.

Conflicts of interests in the US

Larger questions surround Musk, the man behind the entire system. Musk’s influence is poised to expand significantly after helping re-elect Donald Trump and securing a role co-chairing a commission aimed at reducing the federal government, including the Pentagon.

The billionaire has long criticised the Biden administration’s Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program, which allocates $42.45bn (£33.8bn) to expand broadband in underserved areas.

Starlink was disqualified from gaining almost $1bn (£798m) under the scheme, for failing to meet regulatory standards.

In his new government position, Musk may push for deregulation that could lower broadband standards, positioning Starlink to receive subsidies that would typically go to higher-speed fibre options – or he might cut the fund completely – positioning Starlink as one of the only alternatives for rural wifi connectivity. In June, the SpaceX owner began setting out his stall, calling the BEAD program an “outrageous waste of taxpayer money”.

As Musk moves closer to the heart of the government, experts warn his companies could become “locked in” into state governance. If he manages to privatise and deregulate state agencies this could allow some of his companies to fill a vacuum left by cuts to public services. “This is a situation we have not seen before,” said Katja Bego is a senior research fellow in Chatham House’s International Security programme.

“The size of the contracts already in place and the current lack of serious competitors makes it very difficult to diversify away from Musk’s companies. Musk’s now increasingly central and unconventional role in the new administration will give him an unprecedented amount of power.”

Bego’s comments echo the unease in Washington, where leaders in the Pentagon have reportedly expressed concern about having to negotiate with Musk to ensure Starlink continues to provide its services.

Taiwan’s Unease

In February 2023, two undersea internet cables linking Taiwan’s main island with the Matsu Islands were severed by Chinese shipping vessels, causing widespread internet disruptions and raising alarms about Taiwan’s vulnerable communications infrastructure.

With China claiming Taiwan as its territory, the incident underscored the island’s reliance on stable connectivity. Given Taiwan’s strong economic ties to the US, it seemed an ideal candidate for Starlink’s satellite services, which don’t depend on undersea cables. However, despite its Western alliances, Taiwan hesitated to embrace Musk’s service.

Taiwanese officials expressed “tremendous concerns” over Musk’s financial ties to China through Tesla. With approximately 50 per cent of new Tesla cars manufactured in Shanghai, many in Taiwan questioned whether Musk could resist Beijing’s pressure to restrict Starlink’s access.

Tensions deepened when reports indicated that US troops stationed in Taiwan lacked access to Starshield. During a February session with the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, Musk’s company denied noncompliance, insisting it followed its Pentagon contract. SpaceX also proposed a joint venture in Taiwan but demanded majority ownership, which the Taiwanese government rejected.

Yisuo Tzeng, a researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, voiced concerns: “What if we relied on Starlink and Musk decided to cut down because of pressure from China, because he has China’s market at stake?”

Meanwhile, both the EU and China are launching their own satellite programmes, and tech moguls like Amazon’s Jeff Bezos are entering the market, but none has been able to rival Starlink’s dominance. As Musk’s influence grows, nations are left questioning whether the benefits of his innovations outweigh the risks.

Katja Bego, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, noted: “Musk can now use his growing power not only to expand his companies’ roles in military contracting but also to shape policies on China and the war in Ukraine.”

She added: “The extent to which he may leverage those interactions to do his own companies’ bidding, we can only guess.”