Tag: ballot

The NBA is set to announce the 14 All-Star reserves tonight. And while the game itself has a new format — All-Stars will be split up into three teams, with Friday night’s Rising Stars champion becoming the fourth entry to the three-game mini-tournament — the debate about who should be headed to San Francisco isn’t going away.

To settle that debate, let’s break down our 24 selections, including new picks for the 10 starters announced last week.

Should Kevin Durant and LeBron James be starters — or on the team at all? Will perennial stars Devin Booker and Damian Lillard make the cut? And where does Victor Wembanyama land?

To make our choices, we followed the same rubric that the NBA does — two guards and three frontcourt players for the starters and two guards, three frontcourt players and two wild cards for the reserves. No shoehorning players into positions for which they aren’t eligible. Rules are rules, after all. (As a reminder: If you say, “Player X is an All-Star!” you have to say which player they would replace.)

Our star-studded field is filled with snubs and agonizing decisions and is ripe for debate. Let’s get to the picks.

Starters

G: Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
G: Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
F: Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
F: Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks

Reserves

G: Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers
G: Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
F: Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
F: Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
F: Pascal Siakam, Indiana Pacers
WC: Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks
WC: Tyler Herro, Miami Heat

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Why the East presents roster battles everywhere

Three East starting spots are locks. Antetokounmpo and Tatum should be consensus choices, and both should appear on the vast majority of ballots in ESPN’s second MVP straw poll of the season next month. Ditto for Brunson, the driver of everything Tom Thibodeau’s club does. That leaves the second guard and third frontcourt spots. And the debate, not surprisingly, includes three Cavaliers: Garland and Mitchell for the guard spot, and Mobley alongside Towns for the frontcourt spot.

Let’s start with guard and the debate between Garland and Mitchell. By stats, Garland has a very strong case. Cleveland has an absurd 125 offensive rating when Garland is on the court this season, and he’s having a more efficient season than Mitchell across the board while also generating more assists.

Ultimately, this is about a bit more than numbers. Spend any time around the East-best Cavaliers and you’ll see Mitchell is the player everyone takes their cues from. That is why, ultimately, he gets the second backcourt spot alongside Brunson. Garland slots into our first reserve spot.

Towns against Mobley for the final frontcourt spot is also an interesting debate. Towns has had a fantastic season as the other half of New York’s offensive engine and taking on massive minutes — many out of position as the Knicks await the return of the injured center Mitchell Robinson.

Towns sits at 25.1 points and 13.9 rebounds per game with incredibly efficient shooting numbers (54.5% overall and 43.4% from 3). His defense, while improved, remains a weakness.

Mobley, meanwhile, is one of the most impactful defensive players in the league and is taking significant strides offensively this year (increases in points, 3-point attempts and percentage, free throw attempts and percentage) while also having impressive advanced metrics buttressing his case.

In the end, the spot went to Towns because he has to carry a heavier burden for the Knicks than Mobley does for the Cavaliers. That doesn’t diminish Mobley’s impact one bit, as his ascension this season has not only played a massive role in Cleveland’s rise, it gives the franchise hope of a sustained run in the league’s upper echelon.

Both are deserving choices. But for now, Mitchell and Garland are the Cavs’ offensive focal points, and Mobley has another excellent defensive big next to him in Allen. The Knicks, on the other hand, are almost 11 points per 100 possessions worse with Towns off the court, and their offense craters without him.

The fourth guard spot was also a relatively simple choice, with Cunningham getting the nod. Between Detroit’s rise into playoff contention and his putting up massive numbers as the driver of the team’s offense (24.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 9.3 assists on 45/37/81 splits), this is as much recognition of the Pistons as it is Cunningham’s achievements, but he has more than earned this spot.

The East frontcourt was filled with difficult decisions. (I don’t particularly understand why the NBA uses a format of two guards, three frontcourt players and two wild cards to fill out the reserves. If it was up to me, I would simply say to pick the seven most deserving players who weren’t voted in as starters.)

For example, I considered several guards for the final two wild-card spots, and there were no frontcourt players who made it under consideration. This team easily could’ve had seven or eight guards on it, but instead, there had to be a couple of extra frontcourt players who aren’t quite as deserving.

Both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner would have been clear options at different points this season, but oblique injuries have knocked both out of contention. Before the season, Joel Embiid and Paul George would have been expected to be in the running for a spot on this team, and neither is within a hundred miles of it. Bam Adebayo‘s numbers have taken a significant dip, leaving him nowhere near consideration for a spot, either. (Jimmy Butler, too, for a multitude of reasons.) Another All-Star last year, Scottie Barnes, also doesn’t have a strong case. Josh Hart would get a spot if he was a frontcourt option.

So, with Mobley locked into the first frontcourt reserve spot, and those seven players off the board, it would be great to have the plethora of guards as options. Instead, the choice came down to the following guys: Brown, Siakam and Jarrett Allen (OG Anunoby and Jalen Johnson have had nice seasons but didn’t make my cut).

Brown has been part of Boston’s confusing malaise in recent weeks (8-6 since Jan. 1). However, he has taken on the challenge every night of guarding the best perimeter offensive threat, and he carries a significant burden alongside Tatum as the two offensive engines of one of the NBA’s best teams, so he gets one of the spots basically by default.

That leaves a very interesting choice between Siakam, who has been the most consistent force on the resurgent Pacers this season, and Allen, who has been a key cog on the NBA’s most surprising team.

Allen is durable (he has played every game this season) and productive (14 points, 10 boards, 70% shooting), and Cleveland has an argument for getting four players in. Siakam has also played every game this season, scoring over 20 points on 52% shooting with a career-best 41% from deep for an Indiana team that is 9-2 in 2025.

I went back and forth but ultimately settled on Siakam for essentially the same reason I went with Towns over Mobley: default to the player who carries the greater burden on a nightly basis. That has clearly been Siakam.

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Seven players for two spots? Wild-card chaos among reserves

Now we get to the two East wild cards, where several guards — LaMelo Ball, Tyrese Haliburton, Tyler Herro, Zach LaVine, Damian Lillard, Tyrese Maxey and Trae Young — all have cases to be considered for final roster spots.

Maxey was the first to be eliminated. Yes, he’s averaging a career-high 26.4 points, but as his usage has expanded for the injury-riddled Sixers, his shooting percentages have plummeted. (Even the most die-hard 76ers fans wouldn’t argue this team deserves a representative in San Francisco.)

A lot of the all-in-one numbers would argue Haliburton deserves one of these two spots, and he has certainly come on after an extremely rough start, but his overall résumé falls a bit short of his competitors here, making him the next one to go.

Ball has one of the more interesting All-Star candidacies in recent memory. His numbers are eye-popping: He’s averaging 29 points and 7.5 assists and has a staggering usage rate of 35.7% (including a league-leading 24 shots per game and 12 3-point attempts per night), the highest of any qualified player this season. But the rebuilding Hornets are nowhere near a playoff berth, and Ball having the ball in his hands so much of the time is, by nature, boosting his stats. A similar narrative follows NBA assists leader Young, who is helming a young Hawks team into a potential playoff spot, but he also falls a bit short of making my final cut.

LaVine’s and Herro’s numbers, across the board, are virtually identical. Both are averaging 24 points, and Herro has slightly higher assist numbers while LaVine has been the more efficient scorer. Chicago’s offense is a staggering 12 points per 100 worse when LaVine is on the bench, while Miami’s is 10 points worse when Herro sits.

Two weeks ago, I might have chosen LaVine. But given Chicago’s fall over that span — including losses to the Pelicans, Hornets, Trail Blazers, 76ers and shorthanded Hawks, among others — the nod for one spot goes to Herro, Miami’s one consistent perimeter shot creator during the ongoing Butler saga.

That leaves Lillard for the final spot. He isn’t quite the dominant backcourt force he once was, but he’s still averaging 25 and 7 while shooting close to 40% from 3 on high volume. He and Antetokounmpo are regularly the only reliable scoring threats for Milwaukee.

Western Conference picks

Starters

G: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
G: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
FC: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
FC: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
FC: Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies

Reserves

G: Kyrie Irving, Dallas Mavericks
G: Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
FC: Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
FC: Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers
FC: Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings
WC: Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns
WC: LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

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A starting lineup shuffle, plus major frontcourt competition

Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander will go down to the wire in the MVP race and are automatic choices here. Curry is, too, once Luka Doncic was knocked off the ballot because of a calf injury. (Doncic’s injury knocked him off the ballot entirely, easing an already complicated decision for the back end of the roster.)

While James and Durant were lined up alongside Jokic in the league’s official starting lineup unveiled last week, Wembanyama and Jackson have better cases.

Wembanyama’s rocket ship to stardom has been as obvious as it has been expected. But while the numbers are eye-popping — 24 points, 10 rebounds and a league-leading 3.9 blocks per game with improving scoring efficiency on all three levels — what truly stands out is that San Antonio is 13.9 points per 100 possessions better when Wembanyama is on the court this season.

Jackson is having a wildly underrated season in Memphis. For a Grizzlies team that has exceeded expectations despite Ja Morant already missing 19 games, Jackson has played in 45 of Memphis’ 47 games this season. Jackson has built on his developmental time last year as the fulcrum of the Grizzlies’ offense amid many injuries to post a career high in points per game (22.8) while playing almost three minutes fewer per night than he did last year.

With Doncic’s injury knocking him out of the picture, Irving and Edwards were easy choices as the reserve guards. Irving has been efficient, durable and available for Dallas, while Edwards has shown massive increases in his 3-point attempt rate and volume en route to posting a career-high 26.3 points per game.

Some might be surprised to see Williams get the first frontcourt reserve spot, but he has had an impressive season in OKC as the team’s secondary shot creator and distributor behind Gilgeous-Alexander. Williams is in the league’s top 15 in estimated plus-minus, continues to take on significant defensive assignments and is a big part of why this team has continued racking up wins while Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso have all missed significant time with injuries.

While Davis will not be the Defensive Player of the Year, Lakers coach J.J. Redick has followed through on his preseason pledge to make Davis the focal point of the Lakers’ offense. The big man has delivered. He has been an impact player at both ends of the court and is producing at a higher rate on increased volume, more than he has during any of his six seasons in Los Angeles.

Sabonis might be considered a questionable pick as the third and final frontcourt selection, but he shouldn’t be. Sacramento’s offense is a full 10 points worse per 100 possessions with him on the bench, and his numbers across the board — 21 points, a league-leading 14.6 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 60.9% shooting and 48.1% from 3 — are eye-popping.

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Why LeBron and KD aren’t starting — and who they narrowly beat out

Now, the fun part: We are 10 players in, and still haven’t found spots for Durant or James.

James, in particular, has had a confusing season. He remains an excellent individual offensive player — he’s averaging nearly 24 points per game on over 50% shooting, hitting nearly 40% from 3 and getting 9 assists per game. But the Lakers are a significantly worse defensive team with him on the court: 8.6 points per 100 possessions across the whole season, and even 6 points per 100 possessions over the past several weeks since James took a two-game, mid-December break to recharge.

Durant is having another metronomically efficient season: 27.1 points per game shooting over 50% for a 14th consecutive season. Those numbers have come with his worst plus-minus since his first two seasons in the league as the Suns fight to stay in the play-in mix.

But is there anyone who should overtake either legend? The most notable name missing so far is Durant’s teammate, Devin Booker, who obviously is one of the 12 best players in the Western Conference on pure talent. But Booker’s first two months were far below his usual standard from an efficiency standpoint, and even after some recent improvements he is still shooting his lowest percentage since his third season in the league.

After consistently pushing Phoenix to elite offenses whenever he was on the court in the past, he hasn’t this year. The Suns have an offensive rating of 114.3 when he’s on the court, his lowest since 2018-19 when Phoenix finished 19-63.

The most glaring omission from this team is any representation from the second-place Houston Rockets. Amen Thompson would be on this team if the résumés were contained to just this month’s play, though center Alperen Sengun has the best argument over the course of the season. Houston’s offense is seven points per 100 possessions better with him on the court, but his stats lag a bit behind Sabonis and aren’t strong enough to lift him over James or Durant.

James Harden and Norman Powell have both had underrated seasons for the LA Clippers, one of the biggest surprises in the league. Powell, in particular, is having a career year at 31 years old, with LA’s offense over 11 points per 100 better with him on the court. And Powell’s scoring average has jumped a full 10 points (23.9 from 13.9) year-over-year.

Ultimately, no one could quite make the case to unseat James or Durant for the final two spots. They aren’t starting for this team like they are in next month’s game(s), but the two future Hall of Famers still very much belong.