Tag: Baseball

The Hall of Fame voting results from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America will be announced Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET, with several players hoping to hear their names announced as part of the class of 2025.

This year’s ballot is probably the weakest since the early 2000s — with newcomer Ichiro Suzuki the only slam-dunk candidate — especially compared to the middle of last decade, when an overstuffed ballot led to quality candidates getting knocked off after just a year or two. The nadir came in 2013, when no player was voted in from a ballot that featured 10 players who have since been elected to the Hall of Fame.

What has happened since? For starters, the PED logjam cleared — and the post-steroid era downturn in offense means fewer hitters with big numbers. Starting pitchers who reach the ballot have now spent much of their careers in an era when they pitch fewer innings and thus win fewer games.

All this has led to players like Joe Mauer, Todd Helton and Scott Rolen getting elected in recent years — players the general public might have viewed as borderline, but who were top candidates in their election years. That mindset is important to consider for the 2025 results: Voters will compare players not only to established Hall of Fame standards but also to the other players on the ballot. (Disclosure: I was a first-time voter this year.) That means while Ichiro might be the only surefire candidate, several other players have a chance to get elected.

Here’s what to watch for on Hall of Fame reveal day, remembering the general guidelines:

• A player needs 75% to get elected (not rounded up).

• A player needs 5% to remain on the ballot.

• Writers can vote for a maximum of 10 players.

• A player can remain on the ballot for 10 years.

Will Ichiro become the second unanimous selection?

It’s hard to imagine having a Hall of Fame ballot in your hands and not checking the box next to Ichiro’s name, but Mariano Rivera in 2019 has been the only unanimous selection in history. One voter didn’t vote — or forgot to vote — for Derek Jeter. Three didn’t vote for Ken Griffey Jr. And don’t even ask about some of the percentages for older players like Willie Mays and Henry Aaron.

Ichiro is polling at 100% of the public ballots revealed on the Hall of Fame tracker website. Ichiro’s 60 career WAR doesn’t scream inner-circle Hall of Famer or even a typical first-ballot selection, but he also didn’t debut in the majors until his age-27 season — and still registered over 3,000 career hits. He averaged 5.6 WAR his first three seasons with the Seattle Mariners, which doesn’t even include his best season in 2004, when he set the record for hits in a season. He won 10 Gold Gloves, was the American League MVP winner as a rookie and was one of the most iconic players of all time.

Seven of Ichiro’s peak seasons actually came in Japan. If you also add in those seven seasons, he’s at 100 career WAR — a figure only five position players who started their careers after 1969 have ever reached.

Does CC Sabathia make it on his first ballot?

It looks like it. Sabathia is polling at 93.3%, and while vote percentages revealed after the announcement almost always go down, Sabathia appears to have the cushion needed to get elected. Sabathia finished 251-161 with a 3.74 ERA, 62.3 career WAR, a Cy Young Award and a World Series title with the New York Yankees in 2009. During his five-year peak from 2007 to 2011, he ranked second to Roy Halladay in pitching WAR.

Many voters used to have a first-ballot rule, where they would only vote for a player the first time they appeared on the ballot if they were an inner-circle Hall of Famer, but that has mostly gone away. In recent years, we had Mauer in 2024 (55.2 WAR) and David Ortiz in 2022 (55.3 WAR) make it on the first ballot with less career WAR than Sabathia or Ichiro. It’s also true that Sandy Koufax would be the only starting pitcher with less WAR than Sabathia to make it on his first try — and Koufax, with his early retirement, was a special case. Sabathia is hardly an automatic selection, and while I voted for him, I’m a little surprised that it appears he’ll get in on his first try.

Does Billy Wagner finally make it in?

The reliever with a 2.31 career ERA is on his 10th and final BBWAA ballot. It’s been a slow climb. In his first two years in 2016 and 2017, back in those crowded ballot days, Wagner polled at just 10%. By last year, he was up to 73.8%, falling just five votes short. He’s polling at 84.8% on the public ballots, up from the 78% he was polling before the results a year ago, but that’s only a few extra votes, so it’s going to be close. (I voted for Wagner, so that will help him.)

The non-Wagner supporters point to his 10.03 ERA in the postseason (in just 11 ⅔ innings, however). There is also the reasonable argument that no team would have traded, say, Bobby Abreu or Torii Hunter or Ian Kinsler, to name three players on this year’s ballot, for Wagner. So why should Wagner make the Hall of Fame and not players of that caliber? Again, fair argument, but voters have made the decision to compare Wagner to other relievers, not other players. While voters have been too lenient in selecting relievers, Wagner’s dominance can’t be ignored. He arguably ranks behind only Rivera among modern closers — and Wagner had a 1.43 ERA his final season, so he had plenty left in the tank when he retired.

How close will Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltran get?

The two center fielders continue to see their totals go up and have a chance to get elected this year. Jones, now on his eighth ballot, received 61.6% of the vote last year, and is currently polling at 73.3%. Beltran finished at 57.1% on his second ballot a year ago and is polling at 80.6% this time around. Beltran first appeared on the ballot in the wake of the Houston Astros‘ sign-stealing scandal, and his vote totals certainly suffered as a result of his involvement. With 70.1 career WAR, 435 home runs, 1,587 RBIs and great numbers in the postseason (.307/.412/.609), his case is otherwise strong. He received my vote.

The case for Jones: He was one of the best defensive center fielders of all time (he won 10 Gold Gloves) and hit 434 home runs. That’s a nice combination to sell. He also played for those Atlanta Braves teams when they were winning the division title every season, and that helps as well. Baseball-Reference credits him with 62.7 WAR — just above that 60 career total that generally marks a strong candidate. Jones fizzled out early, however, with his last good season coming when he was 29. Additionally, in the context of his era, his offensive numbers, despite the power, aren’t all that impressive: .254/.337/.486 and a 111 OPS+. Only four Hall of Fame outfielders have a lower career OPS+: Tommy McCarthy (an obscure 19th century player), Lloyd Waner (one of the worst players in the Hall) and speedsters Max Carey and Lou Brock.

I spent more time looking at Jones than any other player before deciding not to vote for him. In the end, I just don’t completely trust the defensive numbers that prop up his WAR. Baseball-Reference credits Jones with plus-235 runs saved on defense (a combination of two different metrics, Total Zone through 2002 and Defensive Runs Saved after that). That’s the most of any outfielder — and the second most of any player, behind only Brooks Robinson.

Willie Mays, as a comparison, is credited with 185 fielding runs (second highest among center fielders) — but Mays also played many more innings. On a per-inning basis, Jones comes out almost twice as good as Mays. Twice as good as Willie Mays?! Sounds skeptical. When digging into the numbers, an interesting thing is that for most of Jones’ career as a center fielder, Braves’ left fielders — first Ryan Klesko and then Chipper Jones for a couple years — had unusually low range factors. It seems likely Jones was taking all the either/or plays away from the left fielders, pushing up his putout totals. Since the Total Zone metric is an estimate, that gives him some eye-popping fielding numbers early in his career.

Jones was a truly generational center fielder, no doubt. But take a few wins off his WAR total and that puts him into the mid-50s, enough to make him fall short of the Hall of Fame to me — not to mention that there are several more worthy center fielders deserving of Hall of Fame status in my book, such as Beltran, Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmonds and perhaps Bernie Williams (the latter three long gone off the ballot).

How will Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins fare?

The two longtime Philadelphia Phillies teammates have very different cases. Utley had an outstanding peak from 2005 to 2010 when he was one of the best players in the game, second only to Albert Pujols in WAR. Rollins won an MVP Award, was more durable and played longer — but he finished with a career OPS+ of just 95, meaning he was a below-average hitter overall. Utley easily trumps Rollins in WAR, 64.5 to 47.6, and that helps explains why he’s polling much better so far, 53.9% to 18.8%. I voted for Utley, with his peak level of performance carrying the day despite a relatively short career and fewer than 2,000 hits.

Will Andy Pettitte start getting some support? How about Mark Buehrle?

With Sabathia on the ballot and likely getting in, it’s hard to ignore this comparison:

Sabathia: 251-161, 61.8 pitching WAR, 3577 IP, 3.74 ERA, 116 ERA+
Pettitte: 256-153, 60.7 WAR, 3316 IP, 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+
Buehrle: 214-160, 60.0 WAR, 3283 IP, 3.81 ERA, 117 ERA+

I don’t see much difference here between the three. Yes, Sabathia had that five-year stretch where he was one of the top starters in baseball, but his five-year peak (30.4 WAR) isn’t all that higher than Pettitte’s (28.2) or Buehrle’s (27.2). That certainly helps Sabathia’s case and is part of why he’ll get in, but I voted for both Pettitte and Buehrle as well. I just didn’t see how I could vote for Sabathia and not the other two.

Pettitte was on my TV screen every October for almost two decades, a key member of five World Series championship teams; that put him over the top for me, even if he was more of a “compiler” in the Don Sutton/Jim Kaat mode of starting pitcher. In Buehrle’s case, I’m of the belief that each generation needs equal representation, and he was one of the best starting pitchers of his generation. He won fewer games than Sabathia, but that was mostly because he didn’t hang around and extend his career — he won 15 games his final season while Sabathia was 60-59 with a 4.33 ERA over his final seven seasons.

Who stays on the ballot?

Felix Hernandez was a “no” for me, but I’m glad he has already received enough votes to stay on. He won 169 games on terrible Mariners teams that never scored any runs, but while he had an outstanding peak, he was done at 30:

Hernandez through age 30: 154-109, 3.16 ERA, 126 ERA+, 51.2 WAR
Sabathia through age 30: 176-96, 3.51 ERA, 125 ERA+, 49.8 WAR

Sabathia wasn’t hugely valuable after that, but he managed to hang around and win another 75 games. King Felix won just 15 more games. He’ll at least get the chance to have his Hall of Fame case discussed — unlike Johan Santana, who got bumped off the ballot. As pitchers continue to win fewer and fewer games, maybe the standards will change to focus more on peak and less on longevity (which would certainly help Hernandez’s case).

Dustin Pedroia (on his first ballot) and David Wright (on his second) should also get enough votes to remain on, which will keep their careers in the public eye. Pedroia finished with 51.9 WAR and Wright with 49.2. Both likely had Hall of Fame careers shortened by injuries: Pedroia with the knee injury suffered on a Manny Machado hard slide; Wright with a back injury. Pedroia played just nine games after 2017; Wright just 77 after 2014.

Those are the two highest WAR totals among position players who suffered a career-ending injury (as opposed to a debilitating injury or series of injuries) and aren’t in the Hall of Fame. The best comparison might be Kirby Puckett, who suddenly lost his vision due to glaucoma and never played again. He finished with 51.1 WAR and made the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. Pedroia and Wright are in a unique class of almost.

Wondering about Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez? Yes, they’re still on the ballot.

A-Rod is polling around 40% on his fourth ballot and Ramirez at 36% on his ninth. It appears they’re destined to be in the same club as Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Mark McGwire.