Tag: Based

I told myself I’d give it 100 hours.

It’s been about that much time since the Dallas Mavericks traded their 25-year-old superstar, Luka Dončić, along with Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris, to the rival Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a 2019 first-round pick. I figured 100 hours would be enough time for some bombshell to come out about Dončić and justify the trade.

Did he secretly demand a trade? Get into a brawl behind the scenes? Relieve himself on the Dallas Cowboys star at the 50-yard line?

Turns out, we’ve learned nothing of the sort. The press conference with GM Nico Harrison alongside a visibly uncomfortable Jason Kidd provided little to no answers.

It’s still just as baffling as it was on Saturday night. While the idea of LeBron finally playing with Luka may not be a total jaw-dropper, the timing and the package sure are shocking.

As the NBA universe scratches its collective head, let’s rate the plausible theories as to why Harrison and the franchise decided to trade a 25-year-old superstar months after leading the team to its first Finals in over a decade.

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Theory No. 1: Luka Dončić was an injury risk

Believability: 1 out of 5 stars

Remember when Michael Finley yanked a beer out of Luka Dončić’s hands outside the locker room after winning the Western Conference finals? We laughed at it then, but for Mavs fans, it’s not so funny now.

Dončić’s habits may have been worse than folks let on, but the facts are the facts. Dončić played 70 incredible games last season and then another 22 even more incredible games in the postseason while averaging 40.9 minutes per game to lead the Mavs to the NBA Finals. Literally no one played more minutes in last year’s postseason than Dončić. He led all players in postseason points, rebounds and assists, becoming just the second player in NBA history to do such a preposterous thing.

The guy is a gamer. Yes, the recurring calf strain qualifies as a concern, but it doesn’t rise to the level of “trade the 25-year-old perennial MVP candidate” especially when you trade him for ANTHONY DAVIS.

You know who has suffered a more serious calf strain that knocked him out for 30 games? The 31-year-old big man the Mavs just traded for. Back in 2020-21, Davis came up limp and missed the next two months with a calf strain and Achilles tendinosis. To put it in perspective, Dončić is reportedly on target to return from his calf strain on Saturday, which would put him in line to miss about 20 games.

I want to stress this point: This is the first time in Dončić’s career that he’s missed double-digit games consecutively for any injury in his career. Davis, on the other hand, has suffered six such injuries.

Dončić, I should further emphasize, has never needed surgery to repair an injury. Not the case with Davis. The Pelicans were forced to shut down Davis’ season early in 2015-16 because of a torn labrum in his shoulder and a right knee injury that required surgery. Other injuries that caused Davis to miss 10-plus games beyond the calf strain and the shoulder/knee issues in 2016: a stress reaction in his left ankle (2013); a midfoot sprain in the right foot (2022); a stress fracture and bone spur in the same foot (2023); an MCL sprain in the left knee (2022). On top of all that, Davis’ back problems ended his season prematurely in 2013-14 and 2018-19.

All told, Dončić has played 82% of his team’s games in his career, missing 105 total games (playoffs included). Over the same time period, Davis has played just 73% of his team’s games, missing 151 total (playoffs included).

Did I mention that Davis is six years older than Dončić? Davis will be 35 years old by the time his contract is through. If you’re concerned about Dončić’s miles on his tires, don’t look at the tread on AD.

Trading Dončić for Davis because you’re worried about the former’s injury risk is like sending back buffalo wings because they’re too hot and asking for the ones sauced with Carolina reapers. To steal a classic from Bill Simmons, anytime you can trade for a much older, less healthy and less talented player, you have to do it.

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Theory No. 2: Luka Dončić was a flight risk

Believability: 2 out of 5 stars

In the wake of the blockbuster deal, Harrison floated this idea in an interview with the Dallas Morning News, saying: “We really feel like we got ahead of what was going to be a tumultuous summer, him being eligible for the supermax and also a year away from him being able to opt out of any contract. And so we really felt like we got out in front of that. We know teams, they’ve had it out there, teams have been loading up to try to sign him once that comes available.”

In theory, it’s true Dončić can be a free agent in 2026 and could have held the Dallas organization in limbo by not signing the supermax extension worth five years, $349 million. But in reality, Dončić and his longtime agent, Bill Duffy, have both said Luka never suggested he was not going to sign. And duh, because no player has ever not signed a supermax contract aka the Designated Veteran Player Extension, which allows teams to sign their own qualified players for up to five years at a starting salary worth 35% of the cap. From John Wall to Giannis Antetokounmpo, all 13 players who were offered the supermax since it was introduced in 2017-18 have signed it.

Could Dončić have asked out? Yes. Would it have ruined the franchise? Not if history is a guide. Of those 14 supermax players, only three asked out — James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Damian Lillard — and their respective teams (Houston, Oklahoma City, Portland) received massive packages in return that set them up for long-term success.

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Theory No. 3: Luka Dončić was a defensive liability

Believability: 2 out of 5 stars

The first quote to come out of Dallas’ camp was a telling one. While everyone was busy picking up their jaws off the floor, ESPN’s Tim MacMahon landed a statement from Harrison who, within minutes of the news getting out, said, “I believe that defense wins championships. I believe that getting an All-Defensive center and an All-NBA player with a defensive mindset gives us a better chance. We’re built to win now and in the future.”

Let’s put aside that last line which was also true before you traded the younger superstar who carried the franchise to the NBA Finals.

One way to defend the trade is to point out that Davis is a better defender than Dončić, which makes sense on the surface, but loses credibility quickly.

For one, if Harrison truly believed defense wins championships, he would not have traded elite defender Dorian Finney-Smith and a first-round pick for Kyrie Irving. He would not have signed a 34-year-old Klay Thompson to a $50 million deal at this stage of his career. Those are moves you make because you maximize talent above all else if your goal is to hoist the Larry OB.

The “defense wins championships” line reads like pure uncut trade copium for another reason: Dončić was having his best defensive season yet! He responded to Finals criticism in a big way. Dončić himself said as much at the press conference on Tuesday.

“I think this year, I really stepped it up, honestly,” Dončić said. “Just being more active, more vocal. I think I did a step ahead this year. But I need to do more steps ahead, so that’s what I’m planning on.”

Dončić quietly gave much more effort on that end this season. At the time of his injury, Dončić had actually registered more deflections (75) than Davis (74). Beyond deflections, Dončić was tied for 13th in steals with Jalen Suggs, and the Mavericks were 11th in defensive rating. With Dončić on the floor, the Mavericks held opponents to 109.3 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com/stats tracking. Interestingly enough, with him off the floor, the Mavs’ defense deteriorated, allowing 112.6 points per 100 possessions. With his elite steals and on/off numbers, his defensive Estimated Plus-Minus ranked in the 83rd percentile this season, marking a career high.

I’m not making the case that Dončić is better than AD on that end. But the idea that AD’s defensive upgrade outweighs Dončić’s overall impact is blasphemy.

Does Dončić fight over every screen like he’s Toumani Camara? Maybe not. Does he sprint back on defense and fly around the floor like he’s Amen Thompson? Of course not.

But neither did Dirk Nowitzki.

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Theory No. 4: Luka Dončić was too expensive

Believability: 1 out of 5 stars

This one cracks me up. If Dončić signed the supermax, his average annual salary would be about $68 million, the richest in the sport. And it would still be a steal.

Economic studies have shown that some of the biggest bargains in the sport are max deals given to the very best players because they artificially cap the earning potential well below what they’d make in an open market and are a mere fraction of the revenue those players generate for their teams. Superduperstars like LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Dončić effectively subsidize the contracts of the rest of their NBA peers while providing enormous surplus value for their own teams.

One such 2024 study by BYU economist Scott Kaplan showed that James’ predicted salary in 2018-19 based on ticket sales, merchandise, popularity (as represented by All-Star votes) and player performance would be a whopping $123.3 million, almost a full $100 million higher than his actual salary paid by the Lakers that season ($35.6 million). Kaplan went even further to suggest that due to James’ ability to fill seats on the road, his value to the entire league was worth an annualized — get this — $229 million in salary.

How much would Dončić be worth today if there was no salary cap? Kaplan offers a stunning revelation. In 2018-19, when Dončić was a rookie, his predicted salary was $68.7 million based on his popularity and production, far above his actual $6.5 million salary. His value to the NBA as a whole was closer to $127 million. Remember, that was in Dončić’s worst season as a rookie and when revenues were 30% lower than they are today.

Actual vs. expected salaries during 2018-19 season

In 2025, a world in which Dončić is much better than he was in 2018-19 and much more popular with an NBA Finals trip, I find the notion that he was going to be too expensive for Dallas’ taste to be wholly unserious. Based on the findings in these studies, it’s not crazy to suggest that any team employing someone of Dončić’s caliber would happily pay him a salary north of $100 million a year based on his basketball prowess and ability to draw ticket sales, merchandise and eyeballs.

If anything, a team allocating just 35% of the salary cap to Dončić should be considered a discount, not a financial liability. That’s why Harrison’s refusal to open up the marketplace drove the rest of the executives mad. They understand for guys like Dončić entering their primes, the supermax is an economic superfleece for teams.

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Theory No. 5: Mavs owners are plotting a move to Vegas

Believability: 3 out of 5 stars

Seattle SuperSonics fan? Oakland A’s fan? Might want to skip this section.

You may be one of the seven million people who saw the viral social media post written by Dallas attorney Chris Kratovil. The lifelong Mavericks fan proposed an intriguing theory that the Vegas-based casino family that bought the team in 2023, the Adelsons, secretly want to tank the Mavericks franchise in order to force the Texas legislature to let the Adelson family build resort casinos within the expansive borders of Texas.

Sports gambling is illegal for the 30 million people living in the state of Texas. The Adelsons’ plan to build the so-called “Venetian Dallas” can’t go forward unless the Texas government reverses a stance it’s held for decades. High-level lobbying efforts, Kratovil points out, haven’t worked yet. Experts paint a “very bleak” picture for Adelson and gambling backers in the upcoming 2025 vote — if it even gets to the Texas senate floor.

Much of the decision is held by Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who has refused to play ball on sports gambling bills due to a distinct lack of support among Senate GOP. Without any momentum, the Adelsons could in time turn to a Plan B: threaten to pick up the Mavs and move them to Vegas.

Key word: threaten. In this version of possible events, a Luka-less team with an abandoned fanbase is a more credible threat to move than a flourishing Mavs franchise with him. This week, Kratovil joined me on the latest Basketball Illuminati podcast and laid out his theory in more detail.

“I think they want the threat of Vegas and the reality of a monopoly on casino gaming in Dallas-Fort Worth,” Kratovil said on the podcast. “In my view, what they traded Luka for was not for Anthony Davis, (Max Christie) and a single first-round pick. They traded Luka for a credible threat in 2027 or maybe 2029 of moving to Vegas.”

The Texas legislature meets every two years, which, if the imminent 2025 session doesn’t see the bill pass as expected, means that Davis and Irving may be 34 and 35 years old by the time the next vote comes up.

The Adelsons, who recently bankrolled a reported $13.7 million in political donations to support pro-gambling efforts (a skeptic might argue that $13.7 million is a drop in the bucket compared to the near $100 million that Miriam Adelson donated to a pro-Trump super PAC), aren’t the only NBA family who wants to see Texas flip on this issue. Houston Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta has backed efforts to legalize gambling in Texas, which could open up opportunities for him to break ground on Houston sportsbooks and casinos.

“People don’t just go to Las Vegas to gamble; they go for entertainment and huge conventions,” Fertitta said. “We’re letting people go right across the border. Go look at my parking lot (at Golden Nugget in Lake Charles, Louisiana). It’s all Texas license plates.”

This wouldn’t be the first time an owner threatened to move a team. Any Sacramento Kings fan can remember the Maloofs era and the near relocations to Seattle and Virginia before then-NBA commissioner David Stern stepped in and helped keep the team in Sacramento. Furthermore, new owners from far away towns have picked up and moved a team to their backyard before. Oklahoma City businessman Clay Bennett bought the Seattle SuperSonics in 2006, claimed he was all-in on Seattle and then took the team to Oklahoma two years later. (David Stern fined an OKC partner $250,000 for saying the quiet part out loud — that they wanted to move to OKC all along.)

It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which NBA commissioner Adam Silver would allow a relocation. But then again, it would have been crazy to think the NBA would leave Seattle in the first place. Until the NBA announces who wins the expected Las Vegas expansion rights, this theory won’t go away. That’s what happens when Vegas casino owners buy a franchise in a state that repeatedly has said it doesn’t want casinos.

Perhaps the answer is that a combination of the first four theories drove the Mavs to make the trade, but the timeline seems excessively drastic for that to be true. In 14 months’ time, the Adelsons managed to buy the team from Mark Cuban, gut him from the decision-making process and then trade away its best, most beloved player months after an NBA Finals run.

If the Mavs were truly worried about Dončić’s trajectory, they could have chosen less painful options. They could have changed coaches to see if someone else could reach him. They could have changed GMs to see if they can instill a better culture. Instead, they chose the nuclear option.

The Kratovil theory may be far-fetched. But after sitting on it this week, the political and business reasons sure make more sense than the basketball ones.