How to Watch (and bet)

Date: Tuesday, 1/24/25

Tip-Off Time: 8:00 pm PT

TV: FS1

Streaming: Foxsportsgo.com

Radio: Huskies Gameday App, Sports Radio KJR

Location: Seattle, WA

Betting Line: Washington Huskies +5

UCLA Bruins 2024-25 Statistics:

Record: 13-6

Points For per Game: 76.2 ppg (106th)

Points Against per Game: 64.7 ppg (24th)

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 113.8 (60th)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 94.8 (18th)

Strength of Schedule: 35th

UCLA Key Players:

G- Dylan Andrews, Jr. 6’2, 180: 7.2 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 2.7 apg, 42.9% FG, 32.1% 3pt, 50.0% FT

With a deeper and more talented roster, Andrews has seen his playing time and scoring numbers go down but been better as a distributor and more efficient when he does shoot the ball. It’s fair to question Andrews’ toughness a little bit as he has just 7 free throw attempts in 17 games which may be the lowest ratio I’ve ever seen for a player who has more 2-point attempts than 3-point attempts. He’s also a terrible rebounder.

Last game vs. UW: 12 pts (5/12 FG), 1 reb, 2 ast

G- Skyy Clark, Jr. 6’3, 210: 7.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.7 apg, 43.9% FG, 35.2% 3pt, 74.1% FT

Clark is already on his 3rd school in 3 years after transferring from Illinois to Louisville to UCLA. He has taken a major step back in terms of usage rate playing on a much more loaded roster which has dropped his counting stats quite a bit. His efficiency stats are very close to last year though except for his steal rate which has jumped through the roof (but is back down to career totals in B1G play so far).

Last game vs. UW: 6 pts (2/7 FG), 3 reb, 2 ast

G- Kobe Johnson, Sr. 6’6, 200: 7.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3.2 apg, 44.6% FG, 33.9% 3pt, 68.2% FT

Every coach in the country would love a player like Johnson. He transferred from rival USC and on a per game basis is 4th in points, 1st in rebounds, 1st in assists, and 1st in steals. He does all the little things and completely shuts down the best wing on the other team. After a slow shooting start to the year he has also picked things up from beyond the arc and is shooting 38% on 3-pointers in conference play.

Last game vs. UW: 3 pts (1/7 FG), 3 reb, 2 ast

F- Eric Dailey, So. 6’8, 230: 11.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.8 apg, 52.3% FG, 34.7% 3pt, 73.6% FT

It has been a smooth transition for Dailey after transferring from Oklahoma State and he has seen his production go up across the board despite playing almost identical minutes. He’s shooting better from 2, 3, and the FT line while averaging more assists, blocks, and steals per game. Seems good. Dailey is capable of stepping outside and knocking down a 3-point shot but only takes about 2-3 tries per game from there and prefers to do his damage in the paint.

Last game vs. UW: 6 pts (3/7 FG), 4 reb, 4 ast

C- Tyler Bilodeau Jr. 6’9, 230: 14.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 51.0% FG, 39.6% 3pt, 71.7% FT

The Huskies tried hard to get the Kennewick, WA native in the portal but lost out to UCLA after he transferred out from Oregon State. He’s playing most of his minutes as a small ball 5 now in the UCLA starting lineup and leads the Bruins in scoring. He isn’t the defensive rebounder or shot blocker you’d like at the center spot but his shooting allows UCLA to play a 5-out offense that stretches the floor and puts pressure on opposing defenses. And UCLA still has one of the best defenses in the country anyways so it’s working.

Last game vs. UW: 16 pts (6/8 FG), 9 reb, 2 ast, 2 stl

The Outlook

The last time these two teams squared off, UCLA had played one of the easiest schedules in the country and had a 6-1 record with one of the best defenses in the country. Also, their city wasn’t on fire (hoping for a swift recovery for everyone impacted by the wildfires including my sister-in-law whose school she teaches at was just a few blocks away from burning down).

Things have of course changed. UCLA beat west coast rivals UW, Oregon, Arizona, and Gonzaga but also had a span losing 5 of 6 games. Mick Cronin came out of that stretch with an all-time tirade in which he called out numerous players by name and called his players “delusional” and “soft”. That didn’t stop the losing immediately but the Bruins look like they may have pulled out of their tailspin by most recently sweeping a 2-game homestand against Iowa and Wisconsin.

Defense is still very much the calling card of this Bruins squad. They’re 2nd nationally in turnover rate on the defensive end and get a takeaway on 1/4th of opponents’ possessions. That has been an issue for Washington at times this season but the Dawgs only committed 9 giveaways at Oregon so will need to find a way to keep the turnover count in that range to keep things close (it was 12 last game against UCLA including 8 from Osobor).

The big change in UCLA’s defense has been that they’re much more prone to getting bombed from 3-point range. Over UCLA’s last 5 games, opponents are shooting 43% from deep including both Michigan and Wisconsin making 15 three-pointers on at least 50% shooting (although UCLA squeaked out the win over Wisconsin anyways somehow). That’s not exactly an area where UCLA should worry that UW will beat them since the Huskies have never made more than 10 in a game this season.

Depth has been a major key for this UCLA team as they run 13-deep with legitimate scholarship players. Cronin has slowly trimmed the rotation though and they now play more of a standard 8-man rotation and only 7 players got at least 9 minutes in their last game. 7’3 Spanish sophomore Aday Mara had a breakout performance against the Badgers with 22 points in 21 minutes on 7/7 shooting. He was 2/2 against the Huskies and there’s a chance he gives UW real problems if he plays as much as he did earlier this week. Washington has no one with a realistic chance to defend him with his height.

Washington is technically done with arguably the hardest 5-game stretch in program history where every team was ranked in the top-20. Include Maryland at the front end and that’s 6 straight games against teams in the top-26 at KenPom. UCLA is currently at #30 at KenPom so are only barely below that barrier. Having the game at home still makes this at least reasonable to think an upset is possible which starts a stretch of 4 straight actually winnable games (win expectancy between 34-42% in all of them per KenPom). Coming out and going 2-2 or even 3-1 needs to happen if the Huskies want any shot of qualifying for the Big Ten tournament for which the bottom 3 schools miss.

Washington may get helped out towards the back end of that stretch. The Huskies get a full week off after this with their next game coming on Saturday 2/1. That extra week off should mean there’s a chance we actually see Franck Kepnang and/or Dominique Diomande on the court. For now though, this Husky squad just can’t seem to sustain high quality play for long enough to stay competitive with tournament-caliber teams. They played a great final 30 minutes against Illinois. It was a great first half against Purdue. A very capable first 35 minutes at Oregon. At some point though UCLA will go on a run fueled by UW turnovers and poor shooting and that will be too big a hole from which to dig out.

Prediction

Washington Huskies– 64, UCLA Bruins- 73