Tag: Big

An earlier version of this article described incorrectly the 2025 luxury-tax ramifications of an extension for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The article has been updated.

Baseball writers frequently are criticized for their Hall of Fame votes, their awards choices and whatever else fans are in a lather about on a particular day. Well, I’ve got a beef of my own with Sony Interactive Entertainment, which recently selected Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes, Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson and Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz for the cover of MLB The Show 25.

You guys ever hear of Bobby Witt Jr.?

Sony wanted to showcase young stars. Skenes, the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year; Henderson, the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year; and De La Cruz, one of the game’s most electrifying talents, certainly were worthy choices. But Witt, who finished second in the 2024 AL MVP voting, two places ahead of Henderson, is more accomplished than any of the players who were honored.

At 24, Witt is a year older than Henderson, 18 months older than De La Cruz and two years older than Skenes. Maybe Sony determined Witt was not young enough for the honor? Maybe it thinks 24 is the new 34?

Then again, Sony does not always make obvious picks. Jazz Chisholm Jr. was the cover choice in 2023, which might have contributed to him getting named the most overrated player of 2024 in The Athletic’s annual MLB Player Poll.

“There’s a huge pool of talented players in MLB which always makes choosing a cover athlete difficult for us at Sony Interactive Entertainment and San Diego Studio,” an SIE public relations representative said.

“Even though we chose three players for the first time in the history of the franchise, there are always deserving guys that don’t make the cover. We couldn’t be more thrilled to have Paul, Gunnar and Elly grace the cover.”

Maybe next year, Bobby. Another nine or 10 WAR season would be difficult to ignore.

Big decisions await Phillies

Compared to recent offseasons, the Philadelphia Phillies have been a little boring. President of baseball operations David Dombrowski accomplished his stated goals, adding Jordan Romano to be a late-inning right-hander, Max Kepler to play left field and Jesús Luzardo and Joe Ross to boost the starting rotation.

Still, as The Athletic’s Matt Gelb notes, this is the first time since 2016-17 that the Phillies did not sign a free agent to a multiyear deal. Next offseason, with nearly $75 million coming off the payroll, figures to be different.

That number is somewhat deceptive. The Phillies likely will want to keep two of their potential free agents, designated hitter Kyle Schwarber, who ranks third in homers behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani the past two seasons, and catcher J.T. Reamuto, who plays a position where the Phillies lack internal alternatives.

Bryce Harper (left) and Kyle Schwarber (right) are among the Phillies’ core players now in their early 30s. (Bill Streicher / Imagn Images)

The problem is that by 2026, the Phillies’ roster will be aging. Schwarber will be 33 that season, Realmuto 35. Zack Wheeler will be 36, Aaron Nola, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper 33. The incorporation of prospects such as right-hander Andrew Painter and shortstop Aidan Miller should help. But the Phillies also might need to add a free agent or two in their primes. Right fielder Kyle Tucker, who will hit the open market next offseason while turning 29, could make particular sense.

The Phillies, in fact, should have plenty of reason to go big in ‘26, the last year of the current collective bargaining agreement. In the worst-case scenario, an owners’ lockout could wipe out part or all of the 2027 season. In a more optimistic scenario, a new CBA would include luxury tax rules that are less cumbersome. And after the ‘26 season, the Phillies’ payroll will be even more flexible, with a combined $38 million between right fielder Nick Castellanos and righty Taijuan Walker coming off the books.

Consider this offseason, then, something of a pause. To maximize their current window, the Phillies are going to need to spend. And be creative. And be smart.

In San Diego, a continuing mystery

San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller made an interesting comment at the team’s FanFest over the weekend, saying the club needed to add “a bat or two” and an “arm or two.”

Makes sense. But who?

Of the 40 free agents on The Athletic’s Big Board, only six are unsigned — first baseman Pete Alonso, third baseman Alex Bregman, right-hander Nick Pivetta, lefties Andrew Heaney and José Quintana and outfielder Alex Verdugo.

Alonso and Bregman do not fit either the Padres’ roster or their budget. Pivetta, who rejected a qualifying offer, would cost the team a draft pick, not ideal for a team with the game’s sixth-worst farm system, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law. Heaney, Quintana and Verdugo might hold appeal, but none is a difference-maker.

As Peter Seidler’s widow battles with his brothers for control of the club, Preller’s ability to maneuver is unclear. He has signed only one free agent to a major-league contract, catcher Elias Díaz for the modest sum of $3.5 million. He also has discussed trades for his top potential free agents, infielder Luis Arraez and right-handers Dylan Cease and Michael King. But do the Padres need to subtract to add? Might they add and then subtract? Do they need to subtract at all?

The team is over the $241 million luxury tax threshold, with a payroll that is higher than last season largely because several holdovers are due to receive significant raises. Club officials say they are operating as if it’s “business as usual,” but Preller typically is not this inactive. And the structure of King’s new one-year, $7.75 million contract, with $3.75 million coming in a buyout of a mutual option at the end of the season, reflects a team that appears to be at least somewhat restricted financially.

Tax trouble looming in Toronto?

The Toronto Blue Jays’ luxury-tax payroll, by Fangraphs’ estimation, stands at $273.3 million. Which raises the question: Could the Jays sign a prominent free agent such as Alonso or Bregman, extend first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and still remain under the highest luxury-tax threshold of $301 million?

The answer is yes. Guerrero already is locked in for 2025 at $28.5 million. The Jays could sign him to an extension beginning in 2026, and even if they included a signing bonus, it would not count against their 2025 luxury-tax payroll. When the Boston Red Sox signed third baseman Rafael Devers to a 10-year, $313.5 million extension in Jan. 2023, his deal began in ‘24. And the portion of his signing bonus the Red Sox paid in ‘23 was factored into his future AAVs.

The Jays have accomplished quite a bit this offseason, trading for Andrés Giménez and signing four free agents – outfielder Anthony Santander, right-hander Max Scherzer and relievers Yimi García and Jeff Hoffman. Considering others who rejected them, from Roki Sasaki to Corbin Burnes to Juan Soto, they hardly are guaranteed to land Alonso or Bregman. Neither signing alone would figure to put them over the highest threshold, the so-called “Steve Cohen Tax,” but any additional moves might.

Maybe the Jays would not care about exceeding the highest threshold. They avoided the tax last season, so they would be treated as a first-time offender, paying 80 percent for each dollar they spent over $301 million. Perhaps more concerning: They are within $8 million of the second-highest threshold, which would move back their top draft pick 10 places in the draft order.

These are first-world problems. If the Jays landed Alonso or Bregman and extended Guerrero, they probably would not worry about short-term sacrifices. Shortstop Bo Bichette and right-hander Chris Bassitt will come off the payroll after this season, outfielder George Springer after the next. And, at least for 2025, Toronto could field a rather interesting team.

Around the horn

• The Kansas City Royals were not the only team that tried to sign free-agent outfielder Anthony Santander to a shorter deal. The Los Angeles Angels also made a run at Santander, proposing three- and four-year concepts, according to sources briefed on the discussions.

Santander instead opted for a five-year, $92.5 million contract with the Blue Jays, two-thirds of which was deferred. The deferrals lowered his present-day value to about $71.5 million for luxury-tax purposes and $68.6 million according to the union, which uses a different discount rate. Santander would have at least approached those numbers with the Royals or Angels. But his total payout would have been lower.

The Angels’ pursuit of Santander is the latest indication of the team continuing to explore upgrades. The addition of a free-agent closer such as Kenley Jansen or Kyle Finnegan is one possibility. But the Angels might prefer to simply go with Ben Joyce, 24, and sign a veteran setup man such as Andrew Chafin or Phil Maton instead.

• The Athletic first reported on Jan. 11 the willingness of both Santander and right-hander Jack Flaherty to sign short-term. Santander subsequently rejected shorter offers and Flaherty on Sunday night agreed to agreed to one, a two-year, $35 million deal with the Detroit Tigers that includes an opt-out after one year.

Flaherty, 29, was the youngest of the 15 domestic starting pitchers on The Athletic’s Free-Agent Big Board. Yet, he failed to command a satisfactory long-term deal even though he was ineligible for a qualifying offer after getting traded in the middle of a season. If healthy, he seems almost certain to opt out. By making 15 starts, he will increase his player option for 2026 from $10 million to $20 million. The latter number, however, still would be $5 million below his 2025 salary, and almost certainly below the qualifying offer as well.

Part of the Tigers’ calculus in signing Flaherty is that they can extend him a QO, which this offseason was $21.05 million. The qualifying offer probably would not hinder Flaherty if he produced a second straight impressive season, something he last did in 2018-19. But it would be a new obstacle, one free agents prefer to avoid.

• Right-hander Nick Pivetta, a modestly accomplished starter, is precisely the kind of free agent who is at risk when he rejects a QO. Teams value their draft picks, often to the point of overvaluing them. So they figure: Is Pivetta worth three years, $15 million if we’re losing the pick? Three years, $18 million? Where is the sweet spot?

The potential for a lockout in 2027 further complicates matters. A team might be less willing to go three years on Pivetta when three might turn into two, again with the loss of at least one pick. The potential for a lockout in 2027 further complicates matters. A team might be less willing to go three years on Pivetta when three might turn into two, again with the loss of at least one pick. Pivetta could wait until after the draft to sign, eliminating draft-pick compensation. But that option, never great to begin with, became even more impractical when the league moved the draft from early June to mid-July in 2021.

• A number of free-agent hitters are on hold while waiting for Alonso and Bregman to make their decisions. Among them: Justin Turner, Yoan Moncada, Randal Grichuk and Ty France. The available hitters also include Harrison Bader, Mark Canha, David Peralta, Tommy Pham and Anthony Rizzo.

(Top photo of Bobby Witt Jr.: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)