Tag: Compare

This year’s Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles will be the second time the teams have faced each other for the championship in three seasons: the Chiefs came out on top, 38-35, in Super Bowl LVII at the end of the 2022 season.

This season’s Chiefs and Eagles show how much one franchise can change over time, while another can roll with the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” philosophy. The Eagles have been all about the differences, while the Chiefs, quite understandably given their success, have been more about stability.

Here’s how the two teams stack up, then and now. Where are they better, and where are they worse?

Coaching

Eagles: Back in the 2022 season, Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni had Shane Steichen as his offensive coordinator, and Jonathan Gannon running the defense. That worked well enough that Sirianni had to deal with some serious brain-drain. The Indianapolis Colts hired Steichen to be their head coach after the season, and the Arizona Cardinals gave Gannon the same opportunity.

Last season was a bit of a struggle with OC Brian Johnson and DC Sean Desai, but after the Eagles plummeted as quickly as Monty Python’s dead parrot in the second half of the campaign, general manager Howie Roseman made two very astute hires with Kellen Moore in charge of the offense, and Vic Fangio controlling the defense. Moore has done a good job, led as he is by running back Saquon Barkley and an offensive line coached brilliantly by Jeff Soutland. But, as is the case for the Chiefs, the Eagles are defined by their defense as much as anything else. Fangio, whose systems have taken over the league in recent years, turned that defense around quickly and decisively. Verdict: Better than Super Bowl LVII.

Chiefs: Things are pretty much the same for head coach Andy Reid here. He still has Matt Nagy as his offensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo as his defensive coordinator, and the legendary Dave Toub in charge of special teams. Where things have improved is that Nagy has learned to do more with less from a personnel perspective, as the focus over the last few years from general manager Brett Veach has been building a defense that is now young, nasty, and out to dominate. It’s really Spagnuolo’s elevation as one of the greatest defensive minds of his – or any – era that gives this group a serious bump. Verdict: Better than Super Bowl LVII.

Quarterbacks

Eagles: Back in the 2022 season when Steichen was running the Eagles’ offense, Jalen Hurts was the perfect pointman to balance the run and pass game both as a pure thrower of the ball, and as a true running threat at any time. Hurts was a borderline MVP candidate, but over the last two seasons, his development has been delayed by his own failings.

He’s a tremendous athlete and a good pure quarterback, but there were far too many instances this season in which he was late to pull the trigger on throws he should have made. Moore has directed Hurts to be a “safe” quarterback who is better off taking a sack or throwing the ball away than making risky throws. When you have a dominant run game and an outstanding defense you can win that way, but it doesn’t leave much margin for error. Verdict: Worse than Super Bowl LVII.

Chiefs: 2021 was Patrick Mahomes’ last season with Tyreek Hill before the explosive receiver was traded to the Miami Dolphins. Mahomes hasn’t had that kind of threat since, but in the 2022 season, he still managed to throw for a career-high 5,955 yards, and the same 48 touchdown passes he had amassed the year before (including the playoffs). Travis Kelce was Mahomes’ primary target then as he is now, and the Chiefs did the best they could with an amalgam of second-tier targets behind him. And that’s pretty much the way things are now. Kelce is three years older, and the attrition of the game shows up in his lack of downfield speed, but he and Mahomes still have chemistry that rivals any in pro football history.

The difference is that Kansas City’s passing game is much more horizontal than it was in 2022. In that season, Mahomes completed 31 of 70 passes of 20 or more air yards for 985 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 110.1, This season, he’s completed just 13 of 51 deep passes for 465 yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions, a passer rating of 58.5, and the NFL’s worst deep completion percentage of 25.5% among qualified quarterbacks. Verdict: Worse than Super Bowl LVII.

Offense

Eagles: Philosophically, the Eagles aren’t that different offensively than they were in the 2022 season. The offensive coordinators call the plays, but from a conceptual standpoint, Sirianni calls the shots. The Eagles were, and are, a team led by 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three receivers), with about a 30% sprinkling in 12 personnel, which takes one receiver off the field in favor of a second tight end. Sirianni likes a lot of no-huddle, a lot of shotgun, and a considerable number of run-pass options. He’s not a fan of pre-snap motion, but he’s bent to that a bit because Kellen likes it; the Eagles have risen from 31st to 23rd in pre-snap motion since 2022.

The obvious difference is the acquisition of Barkley, which has turned the Eagles from a team equally dependent on the run and the pass, with Hurts as the bridge, to a team that thinks about the run game first, and fills things in with the aerial game. The Eagles have by far the NFL’s most rushing attempts this season with 659 (the Baltimore Ravens rank second with 584), and under Stoutland’s mentorship, there isn’t a blocking scheme Philly can’t use to dominate opposing defenses. Hurts’ regression is real, but Barkley makes this offense better as a pure force multiplier. Verdict: Better than Super Bowl LVII.

Chiefs: Kansas City’s reliance on multiple tight ends sets may surprise people who think of the Chiefs’ offense as one that loves to spread things out in the passing game, but we’ve already discussed the horizontal nature of that. Then and now, in the pass and run games, the Chiefs will put two and three tight ends on the field as much, or more than, any other team. Kansas City ran two or three tight ends on 38% of their snaps in 2022, and they were top-four in success rate when they did. They’ve done so 45% of the time in the 2024 season, and they’re still top 10 in success rate. Rookie receiver Xavier Worthy, who set the all-time 40-yard dash at the scouting combine with a 4.21-second run, is coming on as a major part of the passing game. That development has added a downfield threat to the passing game, and not a moment too soon. The Chiefs don’t lead with their run game, but they’re highly effective with pre-snap motion and all kinds of misdirection. Kareem Hunt, who is in his second stint with the team, is the leader of that run game, though the specter of Mahomes as a rusher always has defenses on edge.

From a blocking perspective, the Chiefs may have the NFL’s best interior line with guards Joe Thuney and Trey Smith, and center Creed Humphrey. But the tackle positions are a problem to the point where Thuney has had to kick out from his left guard position to sub in at tackle. That could be a serious issue against the Eagles’ array of pass-rushers, and Jawaan Taylor at right tackle doesn’t offer much more protection. Verdict: Worse than Super Bowl LVII.

Defense

Eagles: Fangio is generally thought of as the game’s master of Quarters or Cover-4 coverage, in which four defensive backs (usually two cornerbacks and two safeties) each patrol a quarter of the field, hence the name. But Fangio is more malleable than that. When he was the Denver Broncos’ head coach from 2019-2021, and he had personnel better-suited to man coverage, he adjusted accordingly. Now, Fangio calls more Cover-1 and Cover-3 than Cover-4, though the Eagles’ rate of Cover-6 (Cover-2 to one side of the field, Cover-4 to the other) leads the NFL at 16.6%.

Fangio doesn’t blitz a lot, and the Eagles generally run four-man fronts with nickel defenses behind them. Gannon was more a fan of five-man base fronts, where five defensive lineman clogged as many gaps as possible. Fangio is multiple in both his fronts and coverages with all kinds of little subtleties, from stunts and overload fronts to disguised coverages that morph from pre- to post-snap. Fangio will generally counter run plays with light boxes, and while many of his acolytes have issues stopping the run with lighter boxes, it’s not been an issue for the Eagles this season.

Like Spagnuolo, the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator, Fangio is a master at matching schemes to personnel, and he’s brilliant at bringing the most out of his players, whether they’re first-round picks like Jalen Carter and Quinyon Mitchell, or supposed role players like former New Orleans Saints rotational linebacker and special teams player Zack Baun, who Fangio saw as a potentially outstanding pass-rusher and off-ball linebacker. Baun responded with an All-Pro season. Verdict: Better than Super Bowl LVII.

Chiefs: 2022 was the season the Chiefs decided to get younger and better on defense, and that calculated strategy has paid dividends. Veach and Spagnuolo work in close concert to staff a roster that has become as press-heavy and opportunistic as any in the league. The blitz is even more of a Spagnuolo staple now than it was in 2022 – then, the Chiefs blitzed on 24% of their snaps. This season, that’s risen to 30%.

Spagnuolo does not present a defined coverage type. This season, the Chiefs have played at least 16.7% of their snaps in each of four concepts: Cover-1, Cover-2, Cover-3, and Cover-4. Spagnuolo dialed up a bit more two-high safety stuff (Cover-2 and Cover-4) in the 2022 season, but he really wants to blur the picture for opposing quarterbacks with all kinds of different pressure and coverage concepts. As much as pre-snap motion is a major part of Kansas City’s offense, Spags believes in it just as much. His ability to do so many different things with so many young players is a testament to his coaching brilliance, but it’s also about the attributes the Chiefs require at every defensive position.

At last year’s Super Bowl, Spagnuolo told me that his Chiefs defense that season was the smartest he’d ever had in his coaching career, which goes back to 1981. This year’s is just as good. Verdict: Better than Super Bowl LVII.

Special teams

Eagles: A former linebacker at Oregon and (for a brief minute) with the Miami Dolphins, Eagles special teams coordinator Michael Clay took that position before the 2021 season. In 2023, Philly ranked first overall in Special Teams DVOA, dropping to 14th in 2024. Jake Elliott was the kicker in 2022 as he is now, and his 2022 season was far splashier. Then, he had a field goal percentage of 87.0% compared to 2024’s 77.8%, and in 2022, he led the NFL in extra points made (51) and attempted (53). There has been an upgrade in the punting department. In 2022, Arryn Siposs averaged 38.6 net yards per punt. This season, Braden Mann has averaged 41.9. The Eagles have the same punt return average (9.2 yards per return) as they had in 2022; the 2024 kick return average of 26.5 yards per return is better than 2022’s 22.1 with Kenneth Gainwell, Will Shipley, and Isaiah Rogers as the primary instigators. Verdict: Worse than Super Bowl LVII.

Chiefs: Toub was Reid’s special teams coordinator in Philadelphia from 2001-2003. From there, he went to the Chicago Bears, where he coached All-Pro kicker Robbie Gould, and Hall of Fame return man Devin Hester. Toub and Reid reunited with the Chiefs in 2013, and Reid added the assistant head coach title to Toub’s resume in 2018. Toub extracted kicker Harrison Butker from the Carolina Panthers’ practice squad in 2017, and Butker has been the team’s kicker ever since. 2022 was Butker’s worst season, as he was dealing with injuries and had a span of five straight games in which he missed either a field goal or extra point, the longest streak of his career.

Butker’s politics are … interesting, but he’s been a bastion of consistency when healthy. After signing a four-year, $25.6m extension in the 2024 offseason, Butker suffered a knee injury in November, and the Chiefs cycled through three different kickers (including safety Justin Reid) while Butker recovered. Only Justin Tucker of the Baltimore Ravens has a higher career field goal percentage than Butker’s 88.62%. Punter Tommy Townsend, now with the Houston Texans, was a First-Team All-Pro in 2022. He’s since been replaced by Matt Araiza. Mecole Hardman has been Kansas City’s steadfast return man, but in 2024, rookie Nikko Remigio has shown some flashes. Verdict: Better than Super Bowl LVII.

Overall

Eagles: Barkley and Fangio, along with Roseman’s brilliant acquisition strategies, make the Eagles more formidable than they were in the 2022 campaign, regardless of which Hurts shows up. If the good Hurts is on the field, this is the NFL’s toughest team to beat. Verdict: Better than Super Bowl LVII.

Chiefs: Spagnuolo’s defense is better than the last time it faced the Eagles in the Super Bowl, and while the offense isn’t what it was – especially in the deep passing game – Reid’s Bill Belichick-like adherence to every player doing his job perfectly to win close games is the secret sauce. Verdict: Better than Super Bowl LVII.