Tag: Complexities

The fantasy scenario of a De’Aaron Fox-Victor Wembanyama partnership may no longer be just a figment of our imagination, but rather a plausible scenario that could soon materialize.

“De’Aaron Fox, driving to the hole, and he lobs it to Wembanyama for the slam!”

It isn’t just fans who have tried willing those two players together. It’s Fox himself.

According to reports, the Sacramento Kings are open to moving off Fox, due to his unwillingness to sign a long-term contract extension, and per multiple reports, he wants to become a Spur and play with Wembanyama.

With Fox’s contract expiring in 2026, the clock is ticking louder by the day due to the Feb. 6 NBA trade deadline.

Before we get into what it would actually take for the Spurs to get Fox, let’s first do some essential housekeeping:

• Fox is earning $34.8 million this season and stands to earn $37 million next season. He declined a contract extension offer by Sacramento last summer that was worth $165 million.

• If traded, Fox is no longer eligible for a supermax contract, which would be $345 million over five years. However, such a deal — even if eligible — would likely not be offered given that he’s historically a shaky long-range shooter who still relies a little too much on his athleticism. (Though, let’s not pretend as if he’s past-prime Russell Westbrook. Fox does have a fine floor game, it’s just not near what a supermax would constitute.)

• We have yet to be made aware of what Sacramento is looking for. The Spurs can put together an enormous trade package, but the vast majority of the value would lie in draft-pick compensation. Should the Kings instead prefer established talent to stay competitive, the two sides would have to loop in a third team that would send talent to Sacramento for the compensation of San Antonio’s picks.

• Those aforementioned picks are heavily tied to the successes or failures of the Atlanta Hawks. The Spurs own Atlanta’s unprotected first-rounder this season and in 2027, with a swap in 2026.

• Given the news that Hawks forward Jalen Johnson will have season-ending surgery, the value of the 2025 pick could just have seen a significant bump.

So contractually, the Spurs would have to send back some money to match Fox’s salary. Fortunately, that part’s easy.

Keldon Johnson ($19 million) and Zach Collins ($16.7 million) works, as they combine to earn $35.7 million. Since the Kings are more than $7 million under the first apron threshold, that deal works seamlessly.

But as everyone can see, this package needs some value alignment. And that’s where we get into whether the Kings would prefer to take back picks or talent.

If they’re inclined to take back draft compensation, the two Hawks picks in 2025 and 2027 should work as a solid foundation for further negotiations.

However, if they’re disinclined, then both sides will have to find a third team, and things get substantially more difficult.

First off, who is the player Sacramento would wish to add?

Secondly, is that player even available?

Thirdly, would Team 3 try to squeeze the lemon, knowing full well how essential its role is to completing the trade?

Actually, scratch that. We already know the answer to that one, and it’s overwhelmingly yes. Team 3 would absolutely try to extract more value, as it should.

This isn’t to say the Kings can just insist upon a good player from elsewhere, not get him and then throw in the towel.

If Fox reaches unrestricted free agency in 2026, he can simply leave, with the Kings getting no return whatsoever, which would be disastrous for them. Sacramento should be outright motivated to find a deal that optimizes a valuable return.

And if you’re wondering why names such as San Antonio’s Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan don’t appear, it’s fairly simple: Vassell is on a great deal, and the last thing the Spurs should do is move away from quality contracts. (We’ll get into the leverage San Antonio has later on.)

As for Sochan, let’s be honest. Even if he’s still somewhat of a concept instead of an established player, it’s already clear that he’s the type of guy you’ll eventually need if you find yourself in the Finals. A guy who’ll give you 12 and 8 while he guards four positions and frustrates the hell out of opponents? You don’t give that up, especially if you’re in no rush to make a splash.

And we’re not exactly done with the complexities. We haven’t even gotten into San Antonio’s possible thinking yet.

With the injury to Johnson in Atlanta, would the Spurs prefer to not make a trade prior to the deadline, hoping instead to see where that 2025 Hawks pick lands?

If Atlanta wins the lottery, surely the Spurs would be more than happy to pair Wembanyama with Cooper Flagg or Dylan Harper on a four-year, salary-controlled rookie deal.

(Flagg or Harper would also align better with Wembanyama from an age perspective.)

Or could the Spurs simply not be in a rush and instead wait out the situation in Sacramento? After all, Fox has now shown his hand, and they now know he wants to become a Spur. Instead of relinquishing multiple assets for him, they could simply spend the next year and a half building their team and then sign him outright in 2026.

Finally, and possibly most importantly, are we sure the Spurs are even fully in on the idea that Fox is the best running mate for Wembanyama?

Fox is a clear All-Star, and he’d absolutely help make the Spurs better. But given that his 3-point shooting is shaky at best, he’s not necessarily a seamless offensive fit with the 7-foot-5 Frenchman who needs optimized spacing around him to maximize his talent.

It wouldn’t be unfair of the Spurs to simply wish to go in another direction, especially as Fox will be looking for a big deal, which will clog their cap.

If anything, it’s justified if the Spurs take the position that they need to become damn sure before they pull the trigger on anything as Wembanyama is — by far — their primary focus.

Should the Spurs deem Fox good enough to become the second guy in San Antonio, there’s an immediate advantage to take into account as well.

Fox is currently occupying 24.8% of the salary cap this season. That’s not a huge percentage. Wembanyama has another two years on his rookie deal, and the cap is expected to rise by 10% this July.

In theory, the Spurs could have yet another avenue — financially speaking — to make another big move, depending, of course, that they don’t send all of their draft picks to Sacramento in the process.

Yes, there are a lot of possible twists and turns in all of this. It’s not exactly straightforward. Motivations from both sides will factor in, as would price setting, and even the play of the Atlanta Hawks for the second half of the season.

Regardless, the Spurs hold the power here. Fox wants them, and the entire league is aware of it. The Kings want a return for Fox, but San Antonio is under no obligation to meet Sacramento’s asking price.

While everyone would love to see a trade like this go down, the Spurs should absolutely be in no rush to do anything, unless it favors them significantly.