This story is part of a series from Public Matters, a reporting project in collaboration with KPBS and inewsource. Read more stories here.
Four years ago, the Democratic party appeared on its way to dominating South San Diego County.
In 2020, South County voters elected a Democrat to the County Board of Supervisors, ending generations of Republican control. Democrats held majorities on two of the region’s three major City Councils and were inching toward controlling a third. Republicans found themselves outnumbered on voter registration rolls by nearly two to one.
Last November, that forward momentum came to a screeching halt.
Voice of San Diego, along with our Public Matters partners KPBS and inewsource, recently crunched the numbers and looked at how voting patterns in San Diego County changed from 2020 to 2024.
Bucking its reputation as a sure bet for Democrats, South County lurched noticeably to the right in November. Even more surprising, the shift was most pronounced along the U.S.-Mexico border, defying some analysts’ predictions that Donald Trump’s hardline anti-immigration rhetoric would alienate Latinos and voters with cross-border ties.
In San Diego City Council District 8, where three-quarters of residents are Latino and many live within sight of the border, Trump’s share of the vote jumped by as much as a third, depending on the precinct. In 2020, just 29 percent of voters in San Ysidro backed Trump. Four years later, Trump’s share rose to 41 percent—more than a third higher. Shifts were similar, if slightly smaller, in Nestor, National City and Chula Vista.
To understand this unexpected trend, we assembled a cross-section of local voters in National City and asked them to share how they voted and what issues mattered most to them. Their thoughtful, insightful answers ranged widely but converged on a common theme.
National City voter Sherry Gogue summed it up well: “We’re tired of the status quo. We want change. We’ve had the same thing over and over. And not much change has occurred.”
Our panel of 10 voters included Democrats, Republicans and one independent. They differed on a few issues, especially the extent to which government should seek to reduce economic and social inequality.
But they were united in a shared belief that San Diego’s — and the nation’s — current leaders do not appear up to the task of solving major problems. Regardless of party, they wanted change. They wanted leaders who made good on campaign promises and showed tangible progress toward making San Diego better.
Several issues emerged as common sources of frustration.
Micaela Polanco, an independent who co-owns a mortuary in National City and voted for Kamala Harris, said she observed people in her community feeling a mounting “sense of insecurity” about what she described as a seeming lack of control over the U.S.-Mexico border.
“There were a lot of people coming from…all over the world, and it was impacting our border,” she said. “That’s what I think happened with the uptick in people voting for Trump…People really believe that Trump will at least have more of an enforcement to the immigration rules and regulations. Whereas under the Biden and Kamala Harris administration, it was more loose or they weren’t really tying up the enforcement.”
Other voters pointed to homelessness, public drug use and an overall sense of disorder. Sandy Naranjo, a Democrat from San Diego and former port commissioner, said that near her children’s school, “I would wake up, and what do I see? I see a sidewalk that needs to be fixed. I see human trafficking happening on a Tuesday morning. And this is all exposed to my kids. And so [voters] are getting tired of their local agencies not being able to change [things].”
Economic insecurity also ranked high. Liliana Armenta, a National City Republican, said she was friends with both Democrats and Republicans. Regardless of party, she said, “Ultimately, I believe we’re all looking at our own family economy and our own family life, at our own family security. I look at myself. I have two kids in college. But I have my 14-year-old daughter here [at home]. And I want to vote and want to make decisions that are going to impact her here in the near future.”
Though political analysts frequently describe American voters as almost irreparably divided, the voters in our panel were remarkably united on several so-called hot button issues.
Asked about rights for transgender people, all agreed that no one should be discriminated against on the basis of sexual identity—though a few objected to a recently adopted California policy that prevents schools from alerting parents when children question their gender identity at school.
They agreed that racism remains a problem in American society, though some wished more credit was given to recent progress on the issue.
All said they viewed America as a nation of immigrants, though even those from immigrant families said they preferred immigrants to follow legal pathways toward citizenship.
Ultimately, they said, such social issues mattered less in the voting booth than more basic concerns, such as the cost of living and public safety. As Armenta put it: “How are we going to fix it? Who’s going to fix it the best?”
That shared sense of frustration with the status quo could become a factor in the upcoming race to replace recently resigned San Diego County Board of Supervisors Chair Nora Vargas.
Vargas, who represented South County, campaigned and won as an avowed progressive. Her embrace of left-leaning causes persisted until her final weeks in office, when she championed a controversial policy limiting county agencies’ cooperation with federal immigration authorities.
Just four years after Vargas took office, South County’s political landscape appears vastly different.
As Naranjo put it: “There’s going to be a shift to the right because we have Democrats in power, and they’re not doing what they’re supposed to do.”
With key races in the area going to Republican candidates, it is clear that Democrats need to re-evaluate their strategies and appeal to a broader range of voters. The results of the election have exposed cracks in the party’s support base and highlighted the need for a more inclusive and dynamic approach.
As we look towards future elections, it is crucial for Democrats to engage with the community, listen to their concerns, and offer solutions that resonate with a wider audience. The recent shift in South County serves as a wake-up call for the party to adapt and evolve in order to maintain their relevance and competitiveness in the region.
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