Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, December 30, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Under the total is on a 62-23-1 (72.9%) in the last 86 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): Cleveland-Golden State (o/u at 229.5)
* PORTLAND is 27-62 SU and 33-56 ATS since ’20-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+6 vs. PHI)
* CHICAGO is on extended 12-2-1 ATS run in the last 15 games versus Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-5 at CHA)
* NEW ORLEANS is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 games versus LAC
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+5 vs. LAC)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 94-75 ATS (55.6%). This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, NEW YORK, DENVER, PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, SACRAMENTO
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on the handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 782-357 over the last 1-1/2 seasons but for -131.98 units and an ROI of -11.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 571-358 but for +23.75 units and an ROI of +2.6%. This 14.2% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): MAJORITY HOME TEAMS – SACRAMENTO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on the handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January ’23. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%, while the majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK ML
These last two systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-NOP, PHI-POR, CLE-GSW
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: There has been some decent success for a number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 235-195 (54.7%) for +20.5 units and an ROI of +4.8% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-NOP
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* Teams playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game are 82-51 SU and 80-50-3 ATS (61.5%) versus teams playing a 2 Days Rest game over the last four seasons.
12/30: LA CLIPPERS at New Orleans
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-5 at NOP)
* Home teams on One Day Rest are 54-46 SU and 53-44-3 ATS (54.6%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last four seasons.
12/30: GOLDEN STATE vs. Cleveland
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+4.5 vs CLE)
* Under the total was 82-57 (59%) over the last four seasons when one team was on 2 Days Rest and the opponent was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
12/30: Under the total in NEW ORLEANS-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-NOP (o/u at 220)
* Under the total was 51-21 (70.8%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
12/30: Under the total in GOLDEN STATE-CLEVELAND
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-GSW (o/u at 229.5)
* Under the total is on a 62-23-1 (72.9%) in L86 when one of the teams in a matchup was on a 4th Game in 10+ Days schedule scenario and the opponent was playing a One Day Rest game.
12/30: Under the total in CLEVELAND-GOLDEN STATE
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-GSW (o/u at 229.5)
* Under the total was 27-12 (69.2%) since the start of last season when the home team was playing a 3rd Straight Home game versus a road team on 4th in 10+ Days scenario.
12/30: Under the total in NEW ORLEANS-LA CLIPPERS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-NOP (o/u at 220)
* CHARLOTTE is 32-78 SU and 43-64-1 ATS since the 2022-23 season when playing at home on One Day Rest
12/30: FADE CHARLOTTE vs. Chicago
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+5 vs CHI)
* DALLAS is 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS since the start of last season when playing on the road in its 3rd Game in 4 Days
12/30: DALLAS at Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+3.5 at SAC)
* NEW YORK is on 25-20 SU and 29-16 ATS run on the road in the 3rd in 4 Days game scenario
12/30: NEW YORK at Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-12 at WSH)
* PHILADELPHIA is an impressive 38-27 SU and 42-23 ATS in its last 65 road games when playing on standard One Day Rest
12/30: PHILADELPHIA at Portland
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-6 at POR)
* PORTLAND is 27-62 SU and 33-56 ATS since 2020-21 when playing at home on One Day Rest
12/30: FADE PORTLAND vs. Philadelphia
Trend Match (FADE): PORTLAND (+6 vs. PHI)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trends for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L4 seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 92-79 (53.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 171-144 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 241-183 (56.8%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-WSH (o/u at 230.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These NBA betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 213-124 SU but 151-180-6 ATS (45.6%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 31-33-1 ATS.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (-12 at WSH), CLEVELAND (-4.5 at GSW)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 278-234 (54.3%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-POR (o/u at 222.5), DEN-UTA (o/u at 240.5)
Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 282-258 SU and 243-284-11 ATS (46.1%) the next game over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-4.5 at GSW)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 143-163 SU and 139-160-7 ATS (46.5%) in that next contest over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-4.5 at GSW)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trends for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 63-16 SU and 44-33-2 ATS (57.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-12 at WSH)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 67-77 SU and 79-63-3 ATS (55.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-3.5 vs. DAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 206-260-3 ATS (44.2%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 27-117 SU and 60-79-5 ATS (43.2%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+5 vs. CHI), NEW ORLEANS (+5 vs. LAC)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +4.5 (+2.1)
2. UTAH +7 (+1.4)
3. DALLAS +4 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO -5 (+1.8)
2. LA CLIPPERS -5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DALLAS +4 (+2.3)
2. CHARLOTTE +5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW YORK -12 (+2.8)
2. DENVER -7 (+1.7)
3. CLEVELAND -4.5 (+1.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-CHA UNDER 226 (-1.9)
2. LAC-NOP UNDER 220 (-1.5)
3. PHI-POR UNDER 222.5 (-1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GOLDEN STATE +4.5 (+2.7)
2. UTAH +7 (+2.0)
3. DALLAS +4 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHICAGO -5 (+0.7)
2. PHILADELPHIA -6 (+0.3)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYK-WSH UNDER 230.5 (-3.6)
2. PHI-POR UNDER 222.5 (-3.5)
3. DEN-UTA UNDER 240.5 (-2.2)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(565) CHICAGO at (566) CHARLOTTE
* CHICAGO is on extended 12-2-1 ATS run in the last 15 games versus Charlotte
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO ATS
(569) LA CLIPPERS at (570) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 games versus LAC
Trend Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS ATS
* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between LAC and NOP
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(571) DENVER at (572) UTAH
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the DEN-UTA rivalry in Utah
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(573) PHILADELPHIA at (574) PORTLAND
* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the PHI-POR series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(575) DALLAS at (576) SACRAMENTO
* Road teams are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine games of the DAL-SAC series
Trend Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS (577)
CLEVELAND at (578) GOLDEN STATE
* Favorites are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 of the CLE-GSW nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS
1. Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns
– The Lakers are currently listed as 4-point favorites in this matchup. With LeBron James and Anthony Davis leading the way, the Lakers have been dominant on both ends of the floor. The Suns, on the other hand, have been struggling to find consistency. We like the Lakers to cover the spread in this game.
2. Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls
– The Bucks are coming off a tough loss to the 76ers, but they are still one of the top teams in the league. Giannis Antetokounmpo is always a threat to put up a big game, and we expect him to do just that against the Bulls. The Bucks are 8.5-point favorites in this game, and we like them to cover the spread.
3. Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
– The Mavericks have been playing well recently, and Luka Doncic has been putting up MVP-caliber numbers. The Thunder, on the other hand, have been struggling to find their footing. The Mavericks are 5.5-point favorites in this game, and we like them to cover the spread.
4. Portland Trail Blazers vs. Utah Jazz
– The Jazz have been one of the hottest teams in the league, and Donovan Mitchell has been playing at an All-Star level. The Trail Blazers have been dealing with injuries to key players, and they have struggled to find consistency. The Jazz are 5.5-point favorites in this game, and we like them to cover the spread.
These are our top picks based on the betting splits, power ratings, and trends for Monday, December 30th. Good luck with your bets!
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NBA Top Picks, Betting Splits, Power Ratings, Trends, Monday December 30, NBA Betting Tips, NBA Predictions, NBA Betting Trends, NBA Power Rankings, NBA Betting Analysis
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